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The horse crap program

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  • The horse crap program

    Is anyone else finding that the program is making underdog hands into favorites? I am keeping track of the amount of times that once the cards are turned over how many times I can predict the outcome before the cards fly down the screen. So far I have lost 7 of these all in hands when ahead in the last week. The thing that burns me the most is that i sit there with a friend watching and actually say no i haven't won i know whats coming. take the 12pm freeroll today i have AK button raises we are heads up i reraise he calls. Flop- 7K9 rainbow i check. He bets 150 i raise 1275 he raises 5K i reraise all-In- he calls. Cards are turned he has TT turn is a 4 river... You guessed it 10 i come in last place 40 out of 40. You say Yep its happened to us all but the funny and frightening thing is that i turned to my brother who was saying congrats that I lost as soon as the cards were turned over I just knew it was going to happen. Why is this program so predictable? Is it favoring certain players? Does it have to eliminate a required amount of players on a time limit? Maybe its just me but when I play Live games the odds seem much more true with respect to turns and rivers. :?:

    Thief 21

  • #2
    Thief you are not playing live where I play.

    A very close example to yours: A player goes all in wiht TT. I go all in with KK.
    Flop is: AQQA.
    I can't lose, right? The river is a T.

    I have had a succession of bad beats happen to me here at PSO 4, 5 6, 8 tournies in a row.

    But we don't track the times we rivered someone else.

    And we especially do not mentally tally the times our AK, flop of an Ace or or King held up. Or our AA held against QQ. We just expect that to happen and it is lost from our memory banks.

    I hope this helps.


    BTW I play at another site, and I am currently thinking the bad beats there will never end. And always on the river.


    • #3
      take 100 players, all asked to recall a big hand in a tourny they just played in.

      99 players would recall a losing hand, one would recall a winning hand.


      • #4

        I understand what u guys are saying and agree. I guess what I am trying to say and maybe it stems from me playing on the site to much but, when it becomes so predictable as to whats is so frustrating. Sorry for sounding like a baby.

        Thief 21


        • #5
          If it is predictable.... Why do you put yourself in a position where you KNOW you will lose? :lol:


          • #6
            TRUST ME, I know other sites where it is 100x worse, As for the most here i seem to see very little dramatic river cards, yes it does happen but seems it is very random.


            • #7
              I agree the post.... Its seems to me that all in players win way to much...i also feel that flushes flop way to much.... Flushes should hit about 11%-16% of the time..... in this school and other places its about 45% of the time... It also seems that bigger cards flop more times than smaller cards....


              • #8
                "seems" and "feels" just don't cut it.

                This contention is very easily checked with statistics and if the stats don't conform (very closely after 11,000,000 hands!) to the probabilities, then there's something to discuss - otherwise this is just pointless superstition.

                Get over it.

                BTW I'll bet a bunch that all the above contentions come under the heading of "witch doctor conspiracy/paranoia" rather than "observation".

                Perhaps we could add a button for those possessed by this particular peculiarity to press that would ask the dealer to "scramble the cards - mix them up good - too many flushes are hitting".

                Of course the button wouldn't do anything but in B & M establishments this request (and "change decks, please") seem to be popular diversions that hang up play for a minute or so.

                Wow!, is this ridiculous or what?


                • #9
                  Originally posted by CRAZYLEGS
                  Flushes should hit about 11%-16% of the time..... in this school and other places its about 45% of the time
                  Well, it's primarily a NLHE site. Many hands are over pre-flop or on the flop. If a 2-flush appears on the flop and the hand reaches the river it's often because someone has pursued their flush draw+2nd pair or whatever. They'll fill one time in 1.86 or so, which is around 54%

                  So maybe it makes sense that we see quite a lot of flushes getting filled by the river?



                  • #10
                    The maths isn't right there, after flop with 4 of flush, the chance of hitting is 1 in 3 (actually 35% I think).
                    However flush draw with open ended str8 draw is 54% of hitting either.
                    Clearly more people will chase in a free on line tourny, than when real money is involved...hence more flushes etc hitting.
                    when you hit top pair on the flop and bet 1 x bb(common here, but rare to see a pro do this), AK will call.....hence more aces, kings winning on the river etc.
                    Often players don't take it down when ahead, and this leads to 'bad beats'

                    This program has been independently tested using 10 000 or 10 000 000 hands (it was lots )

                    The seemingly unusual trends/patterns are a direct result of the trends/patterns of our play here...and nothing more.
                    Oh and throw in a bit of Murphy's Law



                    • #11
                      It's called running bad. There will be another player at the site experiencing the exact opposite to you.


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Noodles
                        It's called running bad. There will be another player at the site experiencing the exact opposite to you.
                        you mean the guy on my left that had 110k stack when the rest of the 15 players left in had about 12k in last nights pot limit holdem talk about scared ******** i think i would have folded if he bet after i flopped quad aces. (btw thats a joke dont think i woud ever fold AAAA unless geezer bet into me)