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holdemaces variance challenge

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  • holdemaces variance challenge

    ok sounds mad but im currently smashing all in every hand 25c stgs will let you know the results shortly all ready lost 5 out off 5

  • #2
    variance

    ok guys 10 touneys ten all ins first hand any two cards.
    results 8-2 in there favour lol expected
    could of been more than two but on two off them had multple callers
    so my conclusion to online poker that the variance runs true
    once and for all the question on variance i have answered for my self
    i am happy with the results knowing that 8 out of ten better hands held up
    i do feel sry for the guy who just had is kk busted by my 97 and the guy with his ak so opologise to them now.
    may seem a odd test but when your just playing the game you dont realise whats happening sometimes and only see the worse side of it,
    the more games you play the more variance you will see i.e toss a coin heads or tails and one day heads will win more,the next tails win more,thats variance explainred the simple way.
    if your not winning on ere that im affraid is down to you and no way any fault of pokerstars.

    theres more about losing than just playing poker itself e.g bankrool management etc are all a big part off the game,
    if like myself you play 18hrs plus sometimes variance will get you always,where as my advice to anyone struggling to deal with the variance would be to play hit and miss at various times and various days to avoid lady lucks bad side.

    to beat vartiance at the tables as one simple rule wish i could stick to it,watch and observe,e.g if you see kk win twice all ready and you have kk,be worried,not saying you will lose on it but the odds are against you when it has won twice all ready.

    ty for reading and hope this helps some off you with variance issues like have,but now just going to except them and continue to play

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    • #3
      Originally posted by holdemace486 View Post
      to beat vartiance at the tables as one simple rule wish i could stick to it,watch and observe,e.g if you see kk win twice all ready and you have kk,be worried,not saying you will lose on it but the odds are against you when it has won twice all ready.
      ........

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      • #4
        far too small a sample, you need to do this 1000 times at least.
        17 Time Bracelet Winner

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Django66 View Post
          far too small a sample, you need to do this 1000 times at least.
          AND GL WITH THAT... DUDE! this IS NOT what I meant by playing a rush! So you know...
          May the tinfoil protect you. MT

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          • #6
            lol i know dude was just a test tyhat worked how it should

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Django66 View Post
              far too small a sample, you need to do this 1000 times at least.
              doesnt matter wether 1000 hands or 10 in my book of averages it added up 8-2 about the right ratio so am happy with the test i did,

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              • #8
                Originally posted by holdemace486 View Post
                doesnt matter wether 1000 hands or 10 in my book of averages it added up 8-2 about the right ratio so am happy with the test i did,
                no, no, no, no,

                you'll never be completely sure,

                DO THE THOUSAND !!!!!!!
                17 Time Bracelet Winner

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by holdemace486 View Post
                  ok sounds mad but im currently smashing all in every hand 25c stgs will let you know the results shortly all ready lost 5 out off 5
                  There was a similar 'experiment' carried out by another member in the Skill League, DertymcGerty I believe but I may stand corrected, who went all-in ATC's. He finished the month very close to the bottom, if not at the bottom, of the standings. Personally, I wouldn't spend too much money on this one. Raiser umbup:

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                  • #10
                    but seriously, you have to try this in a cash game, tourneys are unsuitable. i'm willing to assist in any experiment. umbup: ps: the smileys i forgot before.
                    17 Time Bracelet Winner

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                    • #11
                      Glad you are starting to understand how variance works both ways and favours no one in particular...

                      But...

                      Originally posted by holdemace486 View Post
                      to beat vartiance at the tables as one simple rule wish i could stick to it,watch and observe,e.g if you see kk win twice all ready and you have kk,be worried,not saying you will lose on it but the odds are against you when it has won twice all ready.
                      Complete nonsense, sorry.

                      The deck is shuffled between each hand. Hands of poker are statistically independent of each other.

                      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indepen...lity_theory%29

                      Having aces or kings cracked in a previous hand makes it no more or less likely they will lose on this hand. The odds will always be 1 in 5 (or whatever it is, depending on players in pot.. check in pokerstove).

                      You should not play your AA or KK more cautiously if you have recently won with that hand, same for any hand in poker

                      This link explains quite clearly what I'm getting at. Poker hands ARE independent, because the deck is shuffled before each hand.
                      http://mathcentral.uregina.ca/beyond...dependent.html

                      (In the paragraph at the bottom it is getting at the fact that being dealt an Ace is less likely if a player before you has been dealt an ace in that hand, i.e. the cards you are dealt IS dependent on the cards your opponents are dealt in that hand. BUT the outcome of each individual hand IS completely 100% independent of any previous hands.)
                      Last edited by Tomcrockpot; Wed Jan 04, 2012, 07:16 PM. Reason: extra link

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                      • #12
                        Tom... honestly, I think a simple reply like mine would have sufficed regarding that part of holdemaces's post. lol

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                        • #13
                          Cards have NO MEMORY.

                          Period,end of story holdem. If you are playing KK incorrectly because you just saw two KK hands hold up then you are NOT understanding variance at all,I'm afraid. Each KK hand,or AA hand,or 72o hand for that matter,exists only in the bubble of THAT hand. It is not informed by the hands that came before. So KK is 77%,or whatever the exact percentage is,against any 2 random cards each and every time you get it. It doesn't fluctuate within that bubble of the one hand. EVER. The variance is that,over a large sample, the percentages will play out. Odds are like water---give them enough space and they WILL find their level.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by RockerguyAA View Post
                            Tom... honestly, I think a simple reply like mine would have sufficed regarding that part of holdemaces's post. lol
                            true... But people misunderstanding statistics annoys me (and it makes my day job harder)
                            Plus I don't like the idea of people coming to this forum looking for advice on variance and believing that post.

                            On the other hand... a misunderstanding of statistics by my opponents is probably what drives a lot of my profits on the tables.. so maybe I should just stay silent

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                            • #15
                              complete nonsense

                              complete nonsense ok,off cause your opinion is your opiinion but whatever you think im not wrong on this one with variance, watever you say in my opinion so ok check your own hand history stastistics will show probably 2-1 wins with aa for example its the law of averages so how can my statement be wrong? so you win all the time with aa,wow wish i was that lucky,and i never said play it different i said play it cautious,really this is obvious beyond your thinking abilities,if you think the law of averages is wrong,its obvious im affraid you see aa win 3 times at that table for e.g variance will put down one of them in a bad way thats why we lose on aa etc so obvious.

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