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Coin flips.

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  • Coin flips.

    when you're playing a tournament and you're at the final table and you have a 60bb stack and you only raise with AQ+ and TT+ and someone shoves with a 50bb stack is it okay to call a 50bb shove on a coin flip situation?
    Last edited by andrei17731; Mon Jul 25, 2011, 03:15 PM.

  • #2
    it's gonna depend on the payouts and how fast the blinds are going up and by HOW MUCH they are going up--all tourneys differ a little...if u r playing against a player who routinely shoves, i would definitely consider calling with TT or better, possibly even AK or AQ. however, this is a high stack-to-pot ratio (SPR) situation. u want to be looking to pick on the small stacks and gradually increase ur stack by taking cheap flops and going from there. u shouldn't feel comfortable risking 50 bbs on a coin flip, but if there's a decent chance the shoving player could have A9-AJ and u got AQ, or has a medium pocket pair when u got TT, then taking the risk becomes a better idea.

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    • #3
      As keptchup says, it all depends on wether if it's a turbo mtt, or instead all players are deep. I constanly try to see how other players see me at the table.

      Let say we are in a tournament with 60BB, you're pretty deep and largest stack have about 70BB. Here you have a very comfortable situation, and other players should respect you, because you are in a very strong position at the final table.

      Let say you have JJ on mp1. You decide to raise 3BB which is pretty standard. mp3 calls. CO decides to 3-bet push for 45BB. Here you is what is known as a squeeze play, you're trapped between two players and you must have a really strong hand to call.

      In the pot there is about 54BB counting the antes. In order to call, I have to have strong and reliable stats about my oponent. If i've seen him playing the squeeze before way to often, i will snap call.

      Looking that he 3-bet pushes at CO position, we can see that this play has tons of equity practically with any two cards. His range is not very strong, and he could be shoving with hands like AQ, KQ, AK or even J10.



      We have different possible scenarios, given that mp3 folds:

      - You're against overcards, in which case is a coinflip, example JJvsAK.
      Calling here will be allways be EV+ as there is dead money on the pot + you're slightly over 50% favourite.

      - You're against an overpair QQ++, which is very unlikely but possible, only 3 overpairs left can beat you.
      Here calling is not a good option, as you have only 20% of winning.

      -You're against a complete bluff or two cards smaller than yours, in which case you generally have over 70% of winning.
      Calling here will allways be EV+.

      If we take all of this things together, we can see that overpairs are very unlikely, and the general situation in which you will be in will make your play EV+, i think calling is the optimal play.

      On mp1 you can be raising with hands like AJs or even ATs KQs or even KJs which you will have to lay down, If mp3 had a very strong hand he will probably will have raise you as they were still players to talk, and his strong hand can get into trouble vs a lot of players.

      He probably have suited connectors or a speculative hand like J10 or a very small pocket and is willing to flop a set.

      So it all depends, but if your oponent is very agressive and your hand is strong enough, of course you should call.

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