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Perfect Example of Pot Odds?

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  • Perfect Example of Pot Odds?

    NLHE Satellite

    9 left

    I have $1650 left and limp from the small blind for $100 (blinds $100/$200) with KQ diamonds. Two limpers ahead of me.

    The flop is 8TJ. 8 and Jack are diamonds. I check. The BB checks. MP bets $600, leaving him $1600.

    1) Do you call $600?

    2) Do you go all in?

    3) Do you fold?

    Randy

  • #2
    open ended straight and flush draw you goo all in

    Comment


    • #3
      I agree here that the best option is to raise all in. Both you and the caller have enough chips that the raise of 1k gives you the added opportunity of taking it down without seeing the turn and river.

      I think flat calling the $600 bet is the worst of the three options. If you don't hit on the turn you lose the leverage of being the aggressor and a bet of $1k at this time is unlikely to result in your opponent folding. If you do call and your opponent puts you all in I believe your odds are only close to even money calling with 1k to the 2.8k pot.

      Comment


      • #4
        I calculate 13 outs, maybe 14.

        13 outs, he's got 97 or Q9, already making his str8. This leaves you 3 9s, 4 As, 2-7 of diamonds (6 more cards).

        14 outs, he's got a set, giving you one more 9.


        13 outs you have a 48.1% chance.

        14 outs you have a 51.2% chance.


        So you guys are bigger gamblers than me for sure. Maybe I should quit playing tourneys and switch to ring games???? LOL.


        I just can't see going all in for a coin flip at this stage of the tourney.


        Randall


        PS BTW, no way do I call. The choices are all in or fold. And if I go all in, very little chance of other player folding, if he's got what I think he's got.

        Comment


        • #5
          With all due respect to you three excellent players, I would flat call. With 9 left, very little difference between having $1550 and $950. I assume that you care about your monthly sat rating and are playing for sponsor points. I do not go all in with a coin toss with 9 left because that would seriously harm your monthly ranking. I see what the turn is, if I hit my hand great. If not i see what the other player does, and if he puts me all in I sit. Many sat players will make that $600 bet with AJ, and I might catch them with my K or Q. If I win the hand I am in good chip position. If I am lose I and I am left with $950, I tighten up and look for a place to double up, and watch 2 or 3 maniacs go out, before I have to make a tough decision. I must emphasize that my strategy is dependent on my desire to get to 500 sponsor points, and I assume that you share the same aspiration RG!

          In a live tourney, I am all in!

          Comment


          • #6
            PS BTW, no way do I call. The choices are all in or fold. And if I go all in, very little chance of other player folding, if he's got what I think he's got.
            I'm interested in understanding how you could put this player on any hand. They limped in preflop in mid position and then bet the pot when the sb and bb checked it to him on the flop.

            Three limpers and MP is last to act. I would think a pot sized bet here would mean he held a T or J. If they flopped a straight I don't see them making a pot size bet here. Depending on the player they could even have an AK AQ here.

            Comment


            • #7
              To Cockroach

              The amount of the bet tells me one of two things:

              1) they have a made hand and they are putting out an amount that they think is tha maximum I will call with a draw.

              2) they don't have their hand yet and they are bluffing out at the pot with only a piece of it.


              If I can put them on #2, I go all in here. One likely semi-made hand here is: AJ. That gives me the additional outs of of K or a Q.

              Anyway, u r correct, I cannot put them on a totally made hand. But I can put them on say an 88 or 2 pair. Remember, only $300 dead money in the pot and he was MP.

              Thanks,


              Randall

              Comment


              • #8
                TKO14 thats a very interesting perspective. I can only speak for myself, but winning each individual event is more important to me than winning a monthly league for the sponsorship points.

                I assume when we are posting about tournament strategy we are strategizing on appropriate play to make it to the top paying spots rather than determining the best way to survive or move up one more spot for ranking purposes.

                I wish the strategy for winning sponsorship points was more closely aligned to winning tournaments so that you woudln't have to make decisions in PSO tourneys that hurt your chances of finishing in the top spots.

                Comment


                • #9
                  To TKO14

                  UR correct. The sponsorship points does change things. In a single table satellite that only pays 1, I am much more likley to go all in here. I mean, you are looking for situation to more than double through and give yourself a shot at winning (or chopping heads up).

                  On the flat calling. You also have a point here. In my case, I try not to ever give myself the option of calling unless the money is very deep. And even then...

                  Since I am such a rock, I like to maintain the aggressive part of tight aggressive. Because I am way tight.

                  I am not sure if all the above made sense, because this whole game does not make sense to me most of the time.


                  Randy

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re reply to CR

                    Cockroach said

                    I assume when we are posting about tournament strategy we are strategizing on appropriate play to make it to the top paying spots rather than determining the best way to survive or move up one more spot for ranking purposes.

                    Trust me CR: that myself and TKO are not wanting to move up one or two spots in a satellite. He is an aggressive player, and I am too.

                    I am here to learn, and to try to do well. That said, going out 8th just about kills your shot at points for the month. So while I am not looking at moving up to 6th or 5th :roll: , I am looking at the blinds ($100/$200 here) and saying I have $1600 or so left, and that is a lot of time to find a hand, or at least steal some chips from position.

                    What I don't like about the situation I outlined is: I think I have very little chance to make this guy fold. When I go all in I want that shot. (So I have to hit some part of my hand here to win.) Just my perception of the player, nothing else. I could be wrong here.


                    Thanks again.

                    Randall

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Perfect Example of Pot Odds?

                      Originally posted by rggator
                      I have $1650 left and limp from the small blind for $100 (blinds $100/$200) with KQ diamonds. Two limpers ahead of me.
                      I quite like going all-in now depending on the limpers characteristics. $700 dead money in pot. Take it now.

                      The flop is 8TJ. 8 and Jack are diamonds. I check. The BB checks. MP bets $600, leaving him $1600.

                      1) Do you call $600?
                      Randy, you do not call $600 no matter what your hand. It is a case of either folding or going with your hand and shoving all-in. Whether it is 1 pair, a set, a draw. Whatever your hand.

                      There is a basic principle that you do not call a bet if calling puts as much money out in the middle as there is remaining in the relevant stacks. Go with your hand or fold.

                      Breaking that principle also seems pretty relevant to the point you made on the pot odds thread that I had a problem with. I can't come up with any scenario for your point that does not break this principle in order to get into that situation in the first place.

                      2) Do you go all in?
                      With your hand, clearly yes. Though you should expect to get called if the opponent has anything semi-decent.

                      Generally, with a big draw you want to play it on the flop in such a way so you can put in the last big raise all-in. Hope that you don't get called but have a lot to fall back on if you do. Only problem here is that a 1000 raise is not really big, and is likely to get called by any kind of half decent hand such as top pair. I still think your play was right. But maybe - because of size of the pot relative to stacks and because the money was too shallow to put in a big all-in check raise - an allin bet would have been better than a check. I am not sure.


                      3) Do you fold?
                      No.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Trust me CR: that myself and TKO are not wanting to move up one or two spots in a satellite. He is an aggressive player, and I am too.
                        I completely understand this and I have a lot of respect for both of your games.

                        Your belief that raising all in has very little chance of succeeding in making your bingo playing opponent fold is a valid factor. Knowing that you have no chance of raising him out of the hand might make calling a valid choice. Calling with 600 on the flop leaves you with 1k and even if you don't hit your opponent will potentially check the turn if they were on a bluff or only have a piece of the flop.

                        Your also correct about moving to 6th or 5th not being your objective. I do believe that if you were short stacked with 5 people left your objective would probably change from getting to the two money spots to improving to 4th or 3rd so that your cumulative ranking for the month is not damaged. This dichotomy between winning and preserving cumulative rankings is even more apparent in the multi table games when one gets short stacked in the middle to latter portions of the tournament.

                        I don't have the perfect solution but I believe that the PPT ratings are a better choice in determining who has played the best poker each month. One of the problems with comparing PPT scores is the large difference in participants of the Omaha tournaments compared to the holdem tournaments. I believe this difference is primarily the result of there being fewer large buyin tournaments with added money in the holdem events. The few Omaha tournaments that are 100 +2,500 get a nice turnout while the lower buyin tournaments do not. If PPT was used to determine monthly leagues I would not cap the daily bankroll refill and make all tournaments the same buyin with no added money. I think this would go a long ways towards balancing the number of entrants in all tournament types.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Why play KQs that early in a sat when you aren't getting a free look in the BB?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by TrumpinJoe
                            Why play KQs that early in a sat when you aren't getting a free look in the BB?
                            Good point. Apart from freak flops like KQx, you flopped about the perfect draw for that hand. If you're going to play it in the first place, then all-in looks right.

                            But I'd also agree with rg + CR's comments about sat play and sponsorship points. Playing for 'survival' in satellites does seem a little zany, and a hand strategy designed merely to avoid an early exit to preserve %age suggests that maybe Sat rankings should be money-based.

                            Who else can I agree with? Well, there's Serpico when he said "I can't believe you called that bet rosi" last night... :wink:

                            cheers all

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              this is where my thinking differs from most players i am not here to get sponsorship i am here to learn to play proper poker and in a real money tourny that far from the money the best thing to do is go all in

                              if i was protecting my % here in the school i wouldn't play KQs

                              Comment

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