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Insightful Comment

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  • Insightful Comment

    Could someone please write something deep and important?

    It has been a few days since we have seen anything substantive posted.

    I am going to post some excerpts from a great book I read over the Holidays called [u]Fooled By Randomness[/u]. Book written by a hedge fund trader. Some excellent insights into variance, the problem of outliers, and humans inability to accurately predict and accept "catastrophic" events (events that are long-shots, and subsequently discounted as impossible). Think they will be helpful to some people who believe that they are robbed everytime they lose a hand!

    Hope everyone had a good Holidays!


    P.S. I think someone set reset the algorithms over the new year, because I cannot win a hand this year!

    P.S.S. Not to self -- reread Fooled By Randomness

  • #2
    How About This, tko14?

    It's ONLY a game!


    • #3
      Apryll likes soup.

      Dreams likes jam.

      Peace, Starrs LSOGC E2C


      • #4

        If you haven't already seen it.


        • #5
          I had not seen this! Thanks for pointing it out.

          Actually, Noodles, you are the person I thought would most enjoy this book. I know Sir Randall would enjoy it as well. And it is a book that I think many PSOers would like.

          Ciaffone does a very good job of illustrating many of the analogous situations between trading and poker.

          No Art of War, but a great read!



          • #6
            TKO/Noodles, thx for these.

            The book sounds great. I'm sure Long Term Capital Management is mentioned there. LTCM was established in part by Nobel Prize wnning Economists. They were way too smart--which means they had zero common sense.

            When I talked to people on that level while in graduate school, and tried to point out that they could not use pure number theory to "predict" things in business, they looked at me like I was just too dim to understand. One reason I quit/got kicked out.

            However, I do think Noodles is onto something with his "BIG BET" theory. If he would occasionally take the best of what pragmatic people like Hazy, TKO and Ricky Hard can offer, maybe we can all come up with something that is both useful and clever.

            Anyway, thanks for the interesting link.



            • #7
              Thanks for the links, tko and Noodles! I'll definitely have to read that book!

              My profession involves stock trading, and as I learned more about it (and poker) I was, and continue to be, amazed at the parallels. In fact, I'll go so far as to say that the two are virtually identical. They both involve speculation, money management, trend following, risk, deception, "tells," hedging, and more besides. The only differences are the vehicles (stocks vs. cards), and the degree of interaction with the person on the other side of the trade (even more fuzzy in internet poker). Poker is nothing more than a trading game.

              For those interested, I'd also highly recommend another book. The subject is stock trading, especially the psychology thereof, but it applies directly to poker as well: "Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom" by Van Tharp. I got it through Amazon, but here's the author's website, too: (and no, I'm not a shill for him!). The biggest lessons in it for me were on position sizing (how much of your bankroll is at risk), and low-risk ideas (playing good starting hands, not chasing low-EV hands, folding when it's likely you're beat, betting commensurate with your edge, etc.).

              Anyway, this thread struck a chord with me, so I thought I'd add something that was of value to me. I'm just a beginner, but simple lessons have help me improve my ring-game dramatically (now if I can only learn tourneys...).




              • #8
                Erm, Randall. What the heck is my big bet theory?


                • #9
                  Noodles wrote:

                  Erm, Randall. What the heck is my big bet theory?

                  It is there and there is something to it.

                  Before I started reading your posts I did not come close to understanding Deep vs. Shallow money.

                  So I know you have more in you on PURE Big Bet theory. I look forward to seeing more.



                  • #10
                    Well, I guess that cleared that up. As to whether there is more. Heck, I've lost so much interest in poker, I'm not even sure I know about deep and shallow money any more. lol.