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epiphany ... not

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  • epiphany ... not

    Once again, I come seeking help.

    OK, for a newby I think I've established myself as a fairly OK player.
    My percentile after about 50 tournament is 70 or so and my ranking, since being established is well within the top 100 and has been as high as 10, when it was immediately established, and more recently, 45

    Anyway, I played a sattelite the other night and won it. Won it more easily than I ever would have dreamed. In my mind, I was playing looser than ever ... that is, betting middle pair to test the waters ... thus getting free cards and taking down huge rakes. It was like I'd discovered a new way to play. I still felt fairly disciplined, especially post flop. On the other hand, semi bluffs were being folded to me left and right and, as I think about it, I might have mucked on the river only once or twice; point being I won the vast majority of hands I took to the river.

    Well today, a rare day off, I started with two solid tournaments, placing fifth of 18 and fifth of 19. And from there, I've basically sucked. Though one bad beat did me in in one, trip 10s being beaten by a drawn straight ON THE RIVER ... but I've thoroughly sucked in two sattelites since.

    Basically, I think I thought I'd figured out something only to find out I haven't. Or more likely, I lucked into an effective play style, even a solid play style, and then tried to apply it like a bull in a china shop rather than sparingly and effectively.

    I probably through a few fundamentals overboard along the way ... like the rules don't apply to me or something.

    Anyway, has anybody had an experience like this. What lessons were learned in the aftermath ... and what do you think of my analysis.

    I think my game really did move forward with the one sattelite experience, but that it will only play itself out on a consistent basis when I harness the lessons of the experience and reassert the discipline I played with before busting a few new moves.

    Anybody, what do you think?

  • #2
    sprtswrtr said

    Basically, I think I thought I'd figured out something only to find out I haven't. Or more likely, I lucked into an effective play style, even a solid play style, and then tried to apply it like a bull in a china shop rather than sparingly and effectively.
    Sparingly is the key word. Loosening up your play a bit is ok, but you need to do it with discipline and mix it up a bit.

    Sats are not the best place to get a good idea if something is working. The play is very random maniac like.

    Try it in some multis. Formulate a plan ahead of time on how you will try it and stick to it. Take notes of the hands you would of folded, but now played.

    I know when I first came to the school....I tightened up drastically...played a couple weeks that way....did well in a few tournies....but noticed I was always behind the 8-ball with a small stack. I found that playing tight is the way to go.....but situations do come up that require you to loosen up a bit. otherwise you might not take advantage of that situation.

    I would give you examples of these situations, but I am still learning them myself...

    Good luck...Ru

    Comment


    • #3
      My percentile after about 50 tournament is 70 or so and my ranking, since being established is well within the top 100 and has been as high as 10, when it was immediately established, and more recently, 45
      More important than your cumulative will be your win % and money finish %. Remember this game is about money. After only 50 tournaments your results are still just short of meaningless. Get 200-300 tournaments under your belt before drawing any conclusions about your play and how effective it is .

      Anyway, I played a sattelite the other night and won it. Won it more easily than I ever would have dreamed. In my mind, I was playing looser than ever ... that is, betting middle pair to test the waters ... thus getting free cards and taking down huge rakes. It was like I'd discovered a new way to play. I still felt fairly disciplined, especially post flop. On the other hand, semi bluffs were being folded to me left and right and, as I think about it, I might have mucked on the river only once or twice; point being I won the vast majority of hands I took to the river.

      Well today, a rare day off, I started with two solid tournaments, placing fifth of 18 and fifth of 19. And from there, I've basically sucked. Though one bad beat did me in in one, trip 10s being beaten by a drawn straight ON THE RIVER ... but I've thoroughly sucked in two sattelites since.
      Remember, poker is a game of simple probability. You will experience great runs and bad runs. Think of it like Roulette. Betting on black or red is slightly less than an even proposition. Take away the green slots and it is exactly even. So, betting on just red over several million bets and you will break even. Similarly, betting on black over several million bets and you will break even. But, in that several million bets (let's say betting on red), you will have runs where black will hit 15 straight times. Now, if you had just played those 15, you'd think you were the unluckiest person in the world. Similarly, if 15 straight red hit you'd think you discovered some new way to beat Roulette!

      Poker is the same. AA vs an underpair will win 4.5 times and lose once on average... but we've all had runs where AA has been cracked three straight times. We almost want to fold it next time we see it... but remember each result is independent of the last.

      In your two "solid" tournaments, 5th out of 18 and 5th out of 19 - you could have busted 18th and 19th and still had the same "theoretical" result (zero dollars earned). Don't fall into the trap of putting too much importance on cumulative %...

      Comment


      • #4
        Don't fall into the trap of putting too much importance on cumulative %...
        Nor into the trap of putting too little importance on it. It ain't perfect but it does correlate with "good play" to a greater extent than it is sometimes given credit for.

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