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Someone help me!!!!

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  • Someone help me!!!!

    This is not a bad beat story.... This is something that is turning into a every day nightmare........ Its so bad that my wife can imitate my reaction to the tee..... Tournament play you have a SET or a NUTSTR8 after flop....with flop being two suited.... I go all in... get called and lose to river flush.... It happens all the time... its only a 36% chance....
    Sometimes I wait to go all in after a wasted 4th street, thinking players will not risk there whole stack on one card... Hoping too hit the river flush..... I know if I have nut str8 after flop, i cannt inprove my hand... but with a set after the flop, with the flop being two suited, dont I have a better than a 36% chance to hit a boat... Plus I HAVE MY HAND...I have a str8 or a set.... The players who are calling my all-ins are hoping to hit a hand....
    This has not only happen to me... I see it screw other players all so... Maybe the software is programmed to hit more flushes and str8,s to get more pot action... I know this school is for fun, but its no fun to see the river control the game more than it should... I,m I wrong in my thinking...Please help me......

  • #2
    crazylegs, i am going to give my honest opinion, so please dont be offended. you play fast, very fast, maybe even faster than me. first off, you are not going to get respect, at least not the same respect as other tighter players here. second, you are a well known player, people take joy in putting you on the rail. do you not want someone with a flush draw to call your flopped set? do you knot want someone with a flush draw to call your str8? if no no one calls your bets with draws ever, then you can not possibly build your stack. it is those people that call and miss that allow you to aklways have such a large stack at the table. i have seen you many times build a monster stack early and then go bust because you push too much too often. i know what it is like, because i have been known to do the same thing many many times. you have to change your game some. at least in my opinion, you do........ keep pushing your made hands, and they will hold up more often than not. you are probably just going through abad run right now, which happens in poker. but i am sure you have made a couple of final tabkles in the past month or maybe even week, so i dont think you can complain too much.... just my blunt opinion here,


    • #3
      9 outs for a flush draw hits 35.0% of the time.

      Improving three-of-a-kind is 8.5 outs (7 on the turn 10 on the river) which hits 33.4% of the time.

      So from the flop a four-flush has a slightly better chance to hit than 3-of-a-kind has to improve.

      Here, as in live play, people chase draws to the bitter end. Yesterday I was busted out 11 in a $400 NLHE by a gutshot draw that hit. They only had me slightly out-chipped so they risked crippling their stack to hit an inside str8.

      Memory is a marvelous thing. However it is highly selective. The against the odds beats impress themselves on us more than the the times our hands hold-up.


      • #4
        Also, the other side of the coin that makes me take those beats in perspective is that you will LOSE 35% of the time.

        It's good poker when you go in with the best of it but it's rare that it will be a 100% probability that you'll win the hand if called. Hence, I believe that a solid aggressive image in NL has greater value over the long term as it allows you to win more pots without a showdown.

        As usual, my two cents worth.



        • #5
          reiterating CH's comment.

          You may run good, where your 66 to 33 edge holds up 9 of 10 times. You may run bad where you lose with that same edge 6 times in a row.

          When you keep running bad it does cause you to question your game. I think I have lost every coin flip of the new year. And now I am questioning my game.

          Now should I question my game? YES. ALWAYS. But not because I am losing a disproportionate share of coin flips.

          cya at the tables,


          PS Congrats on making EE2C - CHEETAH Class


          • #6
            Re: Someone help me!!!!

            Originally posted by CRAZYLEGS
            Tournament play you have a SET or a NUTSTR8 after flop....with flop being two suited.... I go all in... get called and lose to river flush.... It happens all the time... its only a 36% chance
            There's another way to look at this. Wouldn't you love to be in a situation where you have a made straight or a set -- take your pick --and I have only a flush draw? You could play this hand against me time after time and become rich in the process. Sometimes I'll draw out on you, but most of the time you'll come out ahead. And the only thing you have to worry about is the variance. But there's no getting around that.


            • #7
              Just my thoughts, Crazy --

              You play a hard+fast game that's had plenty of success. Many wins, big bankroll, right?

              The nature of your game might make you more susceptible to 'tilt' than a relatively careful rock like, say, me. I'll sit in the situation you describe, lose sometimes, and think "uh, yeah, well that happens..". You strike me as far more aggressive and win-oriented and maybe the blows hit harder.

              What I'm getting at is that you seem to have identified what works for you. That hasn't changed just because of a bad run of outdraws, so keep on doing what you do (if you're happy with it) and develop a strategy for coping with the inevitable bad spells. Before you sit down to play a tourney during this difficult phase, work out what you'll do if you get busted bad when you were the good favourite. Maybe go and blow some minor bankroll in a few satellites, maybe line up a good TV program, go out somewhere, whatever. But joining the next multi while on tilt is probably a bad idea.

              The luck evens out in the end




              • #8
                1st posted:- 07 Jan 2003

                Just searching through the archives on the site looking for thought i would bump a few old posts that might help with some more recent ones i've seen.