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$22 1R1A - Flopped set

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  • $22 1R1A - Flopped set

    This was in the nightly $22 1R1A, decent structure. We're well into the money and I think we were down to approximately the final four or five tables by this stage. Villain was playing 18/13 over 100 hands, hadn't done anything noteworthy or interesting so far. Pre - I think we're deep enough to setmine but could definitely consider a 3Bet here? Flop - Not too much to say here. Turn - I could check/raise, but the plan was to check/call and hope he has three goes at it. River - A friend who watched the hand in progress said afterwards that he would have bet really small on the river to try and get value from stuff like 88-TT, Jx and maybe even overpairs that might not fire a third time. My thought was that I should check the river to give him a chance to perhaps fire a third bluff, but more importantly, I think checking the river allows us to get the most value from AJ+, which I was pretty confident would bet for value again.

  • #2
    Hi Andy,

    I think your line is fine here. I don't mind the call preflop on these stacks (as opposed to 3-betting). Check-call this action is good on the flop. I like check/calling turn and checking river to him.

    Let's break it down by street.

    When we check/call this dry flop the villain is likely ranging us on Jx, 7x, with the occasional slow play. His c-bet sizing is very large, so he's probably not expecting us to peel with T9/98 gut shots.

    Turn sizing is significantly smaller relative to the pot. I think the player may be leaving themselves some room to fold to a check/raise (which is why we should check/call). Also, if this bet is called, it sets up a pot sized shove on the river, in the event he's turned spades he can follow through with a very strong bluff that's difficult for us to call with Jx for our tournament life, not to mention 7x.

    When we just call the turn again, he probably is mostly ruling out monsters, so our range looks somewhat capped to him at KJ. If he's got AJ+ I would not expect him to check behind and showdown, but to go for value because he thinks he's good. While he might check down 88-TT, I'm not sure he fires a 2nd barrel with those hands on the turn. So I think his range is fairly heavily weighted to AJ+ and bluffs.

    If we bet small, he will probably just call with all those hands he would have value bet much larger had we checked, including possibly even shoved. And I doubt we are going to get him to bluff shove after we put 20K or whatever in otr... but if we check a 3rd time he certainly may elect to put the final pressure on us with his bluffs.



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    • #3
      The good thing about my line is that it also allowed him to catch up to me with the old 53s, which he bet/called with!

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      • #4
        Sounds like he read my book, "Drawing Dead, and Getting There"
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        • #5
          I think if we check/call the flop and turn, we have to check the river (hopefully c/r). If I'd lead with the line I've taken, it's so strong that almost everything is going to fold. At least checking gives them an opportunity to put more chips into the pot with many hands worse than ours.

          John (JWK24)
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