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$215 Sunday Million. AQs Can I fold on his check raise?

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  • $215 Sunday Million. AQs Can I fold on his check raise?


  • #2
    It would be helpful to have some reads on Villain 3, its quite a way into the tournament so there is a good chance you have some history on this player. Their stats would determine how good the 3bet and cbet is.

    Let's assume it is not too good a player given they flat the 3bet OOP from a 24bb stack, in which case they likely fold to cbet too much and therefore you should cbet smaller and definitely fold to the shove.

    Above is just speculation without reads.

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    • #3

      Please find image for more stats.
      Regards,
      Sandip504

      Comment


      • #4
        Probably better to fold when he check raises all in. I dont know what hands you can beat that he does that with.

        Im not sure but I think maybe also preflop just flat call?
        2 Time Bracelet Winner


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        • #5
          Hi Sandpip



          I like your 3bet and the sizing is fine. Flatting would be ok if we perceive villain to be a tight player or if we simply want to balance our range. When villain flats our 3bet we're in quite an awkward spot because the stack to pot ratio is small so if we do c-bet it's easy for us to feel committed to the hand especially if we're against a player type that it capable of check shoving air in the spot.

          3bet pots with 24 big blind effective stack sizes with ante's in particular are awkward, they're awkward because they they don't give us much room to play post flop because the stack to pot ratio is so small. So what will generally happen is villain will either check shove your cbet or check fold. If he check calls then he's going to be left with way less than a pot sized bet, and if he check shoves he still has some fold equity, hence why the check shove shoving should be their preferred weapon of choice.

          So with that being said on this particular board I would probably be inclined to c-bet with the intention of calling a shove around around 50% of the time. It's going to cost us 3k to call his shove and in return we will get back 12.6k if we win the hand and we will infact have the best hand some of the time so I would tend to call asgainst players that I believe are capable of check shoving air or some kind of draw. I think most villains will check shove all broadway hands which gives us the best hand and if we are behind to 10x/9x/JJ/ we have a lot of outs.

          Cheers, Chris.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by sandip504 View Post
            Please find image for more stats.
            Regards,
            Sandip504
            I would not put too much faith in 43/10/0 if its only 7 hands you have on villain. If you had a larger sample you would be wanting to look at pop ups and specifically Fold to 3bet (and therefore call 3bet and 4 bet) and if the 3bet is at all likely to get called then you want fold to cbet (and therefore call cbet and raise cbet/check raise), then you have a plan before you 3bet.

            Anyway in your position with little info I would 3bet with the intention of calling off. When they call the 3bet with 24bb I am not giving them too much credit. Although it is an excellent spot and board to check raise shove, 1) They were opening from early position and that + stack size may well have a tighter range 2) This is the Sunday Million not Sunday 500, most "good" players are going to be more likely to 4bet ship pre than call with the intention of taking it away on good flops. So as said previously I'd cbet smaller, the size you make it you are almost priced in to call the shove the range I imagine villain would shove - I think you might have ~24% versus their range, but that's up for debate. The point is cbet smaller and assuming villain is not going to shove wider, then its an easier pass.

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