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All-in or not ? Middle phase tournament pocket 5's

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  • All-in or not ? Middle phase tournament pocket 5's

    No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 120/240 Blinds 25 Ante (9 handed) - from

    MP2 (t23,132)
    MP3 (t5,293)
    CO (t26,995)
    Button (t8,528)
    SB (t4,375)
    BB (t3,735)
    UTG (t16,565)
    UTG+1 (t6,689)
    Hero (MP1) (t11,889)

    Hero's M: 20.32

    Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 5, 5
    1 fold, UTG+1 calls t240, Hero calls t240, 4 folds, SB calls t120, BB raises to t3,710 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero calls t3,470, 1 fold

    Flop: (t8,125) 6, 3, 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)

    Turn: (t8,125) A (2 players, 1 all-in)

    River: (t8,125) 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)

    Total pot: t8,125

    Results below:
    BB had 10, A (two pair, Aces and twos).
    Hero had 5, 5 (two pair, fives and twos).
    Outcome: BB won t8,125

    I had 0 read on villain, and I am wondering if the money already in the pot justifies a coinflip ?



  • #2
    You're probably getting the pot odds to make a very slightly profitable call, against most villain ranges you're about 44-48% equity and you need 42% in terms of pot odds.

    However two factors make this a fold for me:

    1. You don't know what the small blind is going to do. If he also calls, your equity goes way down as you might well be up against four overcards, not to mention overpairs.

    2. ICM considerations. In tournaments, the chips you currently own are worth more than the chips you can win in the future, because once you go busto, that's it.

    Therefore even if calling is slightly +chip EV, winning the hand doesn't increase your overall winnings the tournament that much but losing the hand will significantly reduce the amount you can expect to win overall.

    So I'd just fold, maintain my M=20 deep stack and wait for better spots to accumulate chips by stealing blinds or having stronger hands.


    • #3
      Thanks, much appreciated !



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