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25c 90m sng, 98o, shove correct or not ?

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  • 25c 90m sng, 98o, shove correct or not ?

    i had 6bb stack in sb, shoved 98o should i folded and waited another orbit ? villain 5 had 24/16/AF 1 stats in (59) hand sample size. high fold to 3bet with a very low sample size.

  • #2
    Your fold equity here is just about 0% due to the pot odds, I'd probably wait for a better hand/situation

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    • #3
      I think 98o is too poor a hand to be re-shoving with here. Like Quaquaversal said, you essentially have no fold equity here, so you need a hand that's going to play well against an average strong/medium-strength hand which will largely consist of higher cards and even overpairs.

      Villian's PFR is 16% - let's adjust this higher because he's on the CO, let's say 25%. Against the top 25% of hands, 98o is a 2:1 underdog, a really bad situation for you to be in. This equity doesn't change too much no matter what range you give villain until you start assuming he raises his top 35% of hands or more.

      You'll likely get opportunities where you can open-shove much wider or actually pick up a decent value hand to move/call all-in with in the future, so there's no need to go broke with 98o vs a raise here.

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      • #4
        Another consideration is that it seems like you're either down to 11 or 10 players and you might be able to survive the FT bubble and start to ladder up a couple of spots when the pay jumps start to become significantly bigger.

        Whilst your main focus at this point should be to go for the win, if you're in a marginal spot and you're unsure what to do, having an opportunity to ladder up might swing the decision to a fold. Conversely if you're in last place, then trying to avoid getting blinded out might lead to you calling wider.

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