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A case of missed value on the river? (45-man money bubble)

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  • A case of missed value on the river? (45-man money bubble)

    Villain 1 (122 hands): 36/30/5.7 FvStl: 63% FvC-bet: 25% Hero (122 hands): 15/13/6.3 St: 33% C-bet: 77% Not the best river card for us as some of his pairs with A kicker have now rivered aces-up. I don't think there are enough TX or Ad-X type hands in the villains possible calling range to justify shoving the river with our tournament life on the line. Any thoughts? Cheers, Ibie

  • #2
    There is few ways to get maximum value out of this hand.I think this flop connects his calling ranges alot of times.
    I think there is few ways to think of this hand, first would be, betting around 1400-1600 at flop ( so pot would be about 5000 at turn and you have effectivly about 8000) and revalue the situation at turn.
    REVALUE: There is also a few things to think about.
    1. Now at this turn card i think you can choose to bet about 2500-3000 at turn and when V1 shove you just fold. Also folding to river shove, otherwise checking back all rivers beside hitting fullhouse.
    2. Im not sure if this is a good choice but checking back turn intention to bluffcatch river bet. But thing is here, when hes going to check you pretty much have to bet some of rivers and then facing a shove you most likely have to fold if its a very bad river card. Also if river is dimond or any J,Q,K and V1 makes big bet you problably should be folding as well, because you aint beating anything beside bluff because with just a one pair he wouldnt be betting big for sure.

    Second, i think you can go bet the pot, so its about 1900-2100(Pot would be about 6000 at turn, effective stack about 7800). The point is, since this is a bubble, i dont know the limits this hand is in, but i would expect with this bet most of guys would shove all their flush draws, so you will also be calling the shove for sure. Ofcourse you could make a case for betting a pot in this spot and very good players would be sure you have a hand and therefor they shouldnt be shoving over 1900-2100 cbet, but still im very sure this play would be very good against alot of opponents. Now, if you have cbet 1900-2100 at this flop and this guy just calls, im pretty sure you dont have to worry about that V1 hit a flush. Also im pretty sure he would 3bet jam all hes PP pre so there wont be sets as well. So all i would think at turn would be how to get paid of most, so id problably would make a bet that would pot commity him so id bet like 3000-4000, since i think there is still some value to get from flush draws/straightdraws and maybe even Tx/slowplayed overpair really bad way.

    But, as played, you cant jam at river, because this would mean you turn your 2 pair into bluff - he aint going to call you off worse. You could bet like really small at river, but when he shoves over, you have to fold in this spot what would be really awkward spot to be in, so checking it back is fine.

    Hope for some feedback to this analyze as well.



    • #3
      Hi Ibie_Broke

      I like your bet sizing pre and post flop so the only query we have to deal with is whether or not to shove the river or not. I think this decision boils down to what villain type we're playing against.

      The only hands we're going to get value from imo would be hands like Ax hands with a diamond which is unlikely because villain would have to be awfully spiteful to call a cbet with most Ax hands. There are a lot of 9x,10x,qj/qk type hands in his range which he will check fold if he misses, so it will be hard to called by worse so I think that checking back is fine especially as we're on the bubble. However, against big fish/non believers I would be inclined to shove the river and hope to get hero called by 10x/9x but more often than not I think checking back would be best.

      Good hand, Chris.


      • #4
        Cheers guys. The villain was a typical nanostakes LP and would certainly call the c-bet with Ad/x or even gut-shots. Maybe that is a reason to c-bet slightly larger. When he calls the turn his range is probably weighted towards pairs. I doubt he'd be peeling with a naked draw. I don't particularly like checking the turn and giving a free-card to his draws, especially since I didn't think this villain would lead river with 9x or as a bluff. I do agree it would be far-fetched for even a LP to pay off a shove on the river with a hand like KT. In the hand the villain turned over Ad5h. Thanks again umbup: Ibie



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