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MM#076 $2.20 deep ITM did I play this correct please ?

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  • MM#076 $2.20 deep ITM did I play this correct please ?

    Hi luck changed here im 23/23.guy who raised was a card rack seemed to always have it (he even had had AA 2 consecutive hands) reads VP:22 PFR:17 AF:1.5 W:73|55 STL:71|100 3B:11|50 CB:75|0 Hands:81 there were 3 tables left this is not the final table Had been playing 9 hours (I only usually play for 2 at most) but i wasnt exhausted so not making excuses just wanted to know if call was correct or should I have folded here ? Need a rest break after so wont paste many for a while let you have a rest too !
    Last edited by rolo834; Sat Nov 23, 2013, 09:55 PM. Reason: lots typos

  • #2
    Hi rolo! With KQo, I get a min-raise and a call in front of me. One piece of information that I would really like to have here is the stats on the other opp in the hand. Yes, it ends up that only one calls, but in order to make the best decision, I need to look at how my hand will do against either or both opps, since there are two in the pot. I also need to shove if I play the hand, as even a call here basically pot-commits me, so I have 2 options... shove or fold First scenario: I shove, villain 4 calls I have 40% pot equity and when I put my cards and the opp's range in pokerstove, my hand is worth 47.6%... so shoving against only this opp is a +EV play Second scenario: I shove, villain 6 calls I'm going to have to make an assumption here that the villain's range is similar to villain 4's range (15-20%) and if this is the case, just like above, it's a +EV play to shove Third scenario: I shove, both call my pot equity will be 31.4% (my chips/size of pot). When I go to pokerstove and put in two opps with 17% ranges (since the other isn't given, I'll estimate it). I get that my hand has only 29.3% equity, which means that it's a marginal fold. Fourth scenario: I shove, both fold... I add over 73% to my stack without a fight. This would be a great thing to have happen, although an observant opp in villain 6's seat should ALWAYS call if villain 4 folds. As long as both opps do not call every single time, it WILL be a +EV play for me to shove here and due to this, I'm happy to do so. Unfortunately the opp has a better hand, but shoving KQ here IS the correct +EV play that I want to make. Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.umbup: John (JWK24)
    Super-Moderator



    6 Time Bracelet Winner


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    • #3
      If the Villian 3 is a tigher player there could be argument for folding this or this other guy whos calling but mostly i cant see why not shove this. This guys seems so agressive with given stats. But i think i would have called preflop and shove all flops ( maybe check/fold Axx flops but dont even think that). I think you could get some extra fold equity with call/shoving flop in this spot since if other guy flatting there with some Ax stuff or low pairs they dont want to call it off very easy, also when you shove flop then the first guy ( initial raiser) will have to call pot size bet with A high while having a one guy left to act ( who might have hit the flop and shove over him). Think in this flop this AQo would have folded and if the other guy had something like 33/Jx he could have call you off, but you still have about 25% equity against that calling ranges what would be fine.

      Comment


      • #4
        Hi bungakat!

        I wouldn't call, then shove any flop for this reason... I don't want an opp that will play ace/rag to see an A on the flop before committing their chips to the pot.

        John (JWK24)
        Super-Moderator



        6 Time Bracelet Winner


        Comment


        • #5
          Hey,
          Yes, Aces will hit board about 16% of the times when he has it. He will make a pair 32% of time with 2 cards holding. Im sure you agree that there is 0% equity if we preflop shove. Assumine hes going to fold to flop shove when hes not hitting its 68% of time we are going against flatting ranges, witch is in my oppinon most likely pretty weak ranges(sure can be slowplay aces or w/e). So if we have are about to get it in against a ranges what very easily be having also Ax hands(they are blocking each others in pretty decent time). Im pretty sure there is fold equity against that weaker ranges. Now if we have fold equity lets say even 10% of time then its still better then 0% as it is preflop, we will get close to double up without going to showdown. If guy with a flatting ranges is going to call, its most likely Jx some other pair so we have overcards still ( 25% equity). Sure there will be some slowplay AA/sets etc. but if you getting it in anyways then id like to give it a shot to get some fold equity
          My point is, ace isnt going to be at flop that often and if youre going to get it in anyways why not try to get some extra fold equity by shoving flop?

          Btw, im sure it all can be calculated and shown in math, but way too late here to figure all that out
          Cheers
          Last edited by bungakat; Mon Nov 25, 2013, 07:04 AM. Reason: .

          Comment


          • #6
            The only fold equity I'll have is preflop. On the flop, there are so many chips in the pot that the opp can have a +EV call with any hand that has 30% equity and since they get to see both cards, that's easy to do. If both stay, then they would only need 22.8%.

            John (JWK24)
            Super-Moderator



            6 Time Bracelet Winner


            Comment


            • #7
              Cant see anyone folding to shove there preflop really, but they might fold when they are not hitting anything. What im saying is that initial raiser ranges is way stronger and hes stack is bigger, he isnt going to hit a flop very often and think yourself if you would be him and not hitting a flop there, you really cant call with missed flops since other guy might shove over you. So even in this case only you get one guy to fold. All im saying you might get fold equity at flop.

              Comment


              • #8
                Thought it all through once again lol, i think youre right, shove is better, because its still better to get on HU then play it out threeway and that low fold equity at flop isnt enghou to let 2 player see the flop. I guess i dint got your point, but i still think one of them will call this shove. Just if the first guy thinks other guy might slowplay something he will fold hes bottom ranges, and other guy might just have 33 and youre flipping.

                Thanks for arguments

                Comment


                • #9
                  Hi u2 so sorry maybe i wa stired I had forgotten to include valuable reads

                  the second guys stats were...

                  VP:26 PFR:13 AF:6.5 W:60|83 STL:44|40 3B:3|0 CB:100|0 Hands:70

                  Now you have me doubting if I saw the second guy even enter th epot...but i think i did......had gone card dead and was in last place ....on reflection with recollection yeah i must have noticed him entering th epot and calling the first guys raise

                  I do know you needed seconds guys reads...must have just been tired when i posted...maybe in a slight rush which is never good


                  I go read yoru answers hope this isnt closed yet as would really like to know if I made th ecorrect play here

                  thank you

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    hey nice discussion

                    I kinda see where you were coming from bunga like a stop and go

                    But on my stack size and against 2 opponents maybe a not a good idea?

                    Hope ive grasped what you are /were both saying

                    Im goign to try to run the numbers and see if I can get same answers

                    As the other guy was even looser Im now assuming John that myallin was +EV in the long term regardless of me being in last place(deep in money remember)

                    Was my highest ever win so far on Pokerstars

                    Thank you for helping me

                    Comment

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