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Bubble decision: AQo in SB facing button steal 45-man 25c SNG

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  • Bubble decision: AQo in SB facing button steal 45-man 25c SNG

    We are 6th out of 8, sitting with just under 12BB, on the absolute bubble of a 45-man SNG. Action: folds round to the button who has us covered and who has been very active thus far (albeit a small sample size). Button puts in a standard open, and we look down at AQ in the small blind. Given that the button could have a bunch of dominated aces/ broadways, under-cards, small PPs etc., should we get the money in or fold and look for a better spot?

  • #2
    AQ with 12BB is a very strong hand. When a very active button opens for a steal, a 3Bet shove is by far the best play. You are crushing most of his range and flipping against most of his pocket pairs. The only hands you're very scared of are AK, QQ-AA which make a very small % of his range.

    Of course when he calls with J3s, you are loving life! Although his equity isn't actually that bad against your specific holding, the call is still terrible as his equity against your range (e.g. 22+, AT+, KQ) is only 31.87%. Even though he sucks out, just make a note on the player and hope you come across him in many future tourneys.

    45-man SNGs are quite unique because the bubble isn't really a bubble in the same way as in any other MTT, you can think of it more as just a pay jump because the difference between 8th and 7th isn't much more than the difference between 7th and 6th. Therefore just getting into the money shouldn't be a priority, you need to play for the win.

    Well played.


    • #3
      Hi Ibie_Broke

      Although we're on the bubble I think passing up on this opportunity to accumulate chips would be a mistake.

      It is correct to significantly tighten our range on the bubble but we have to go ahead and get in here with a hand as strong as AQ. If I had a hand like KJ I'd fold it, it would be a reluctant fold because I think KJ is ahead of most villains ranges in this situation but I would fold, but with AQ it's just too likely we have him crushed into smithereens and if we want to give ourselves a great shot at taking this thing down then we ought to take full advantage of this opportunity.

      Cheers, Chris.



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