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Questioning the notion of not shoving with >25BBs, again

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  • Questioning the notion of not shoving with >25BBs, again

    Hi,

    This is a hand from a $0.25 NL Hold'em [90 Players] - Level I (10/20) that I lost.

    Yet again, I wanted to shove post flop and just take the pot there, but this standard bet sizing has ZERO effect in the 25c 90 man SNGs. There is no fold button.
    I feel I could've protected my hand again by shoving post flop/turn, but I played 'std. bet sizing' and of course the genius makes his straight.

    Have I given him the right price to make his straight? Damn straight I have.

    I might realise this is -EV on the long run, but I have a decent read on these players, and shoving is the only way to make them fold and I will do so from now on until proven otherwise by my own stats.

    The idea is this, 'you wanna see if you make a straight, shove your chips in' and let's find out. I am done playing 'standard' with these calling stations and respectfully disagree with not shoving at these stakes. Please correct me if I am wrong, again.

    http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-h...104_12BA3EB4D1

  • #2
    Originally posted by IBNash View Post
    I might realise this is -EV on the long run, but I have a decent read on these players, and shoving is the only way to make them fold and I will do so from now on until proven otherwise by my own stats.
    Explain why you want them to fold.

    Comment


    • #3
      Because I am reading the flop and their ranges right and am ahead post flop. By letting them see the Turn/River I am willfully letting them get ahead. Why do you want me to keep giving them the odds to beat me? I rather take the pot now, small as it may be.

      Comment


      • #4
        I guess unless we are playing players of near pro poker standard we have to assume there's often a calling station around.

        Comment


        • #5
          Hi Nash,

          You don't want the worst hand to fold, but you also don't want to give them correct odds to chase you either. If they fold when they have a correct price, or chase when they don't, that's fine. It's how we make our edge in poker, from opponents mistakes. Overbet shoving all in is bad in general because it forces them to play correctly and fold most worse hands, while better hands will never fold. So when you are way ahead you win the pot immediately, getting no further value from your hand, and when you're not in good shape you punt your stack off.

          In this hand, I do think you made some mistakes. Preflop is fine obviously. On the flop, when V6 donks out for 100 on a wet board, I suspect he's going to have a draw of some sort quite often... The min-raise gives him a fair price to chase you... he has to call 100 more into a pot of 620, so 6.2-1. He's about 4-1 to make a flush on the turn, and 5-1 with an 8 out straight draw... so this gives him a correct call on a draw even if he never gets another chip from you when he makes his hand. You have 2 options here... either flat call, planning to raise a safe turn card, or raise more. I prefer to make it about 400 here. That means he has to call 300 into a pot of 820, 2.7-1, so drawing is a mistake as long as we don't pay off when he gets there. That would leave us 1020 to shove into a pot of 1120 on the turn if we get called on the flop, which I'd do on any blank card. Raising to 450 or 500 is fine too, as he's making a bigger mistake calling on a draw then.

          As played, I do like shoving the turn. His line screams draw, he's trying to get a cheap (essentially free) river card here. There's already 780 out there and a 1.5x pot shove isn't unreasonable. A standard raise here is going to be at least half our stack anyway, and then we can't really fold any more, so I don't like that... while he'd be making a mistake to call and chase it, we would only get that much when he misses, but perhaps put the full amount in when he hits, so I don't mind just putting the full amount in now and making him pay the max to draw, or take down an already large pot when he folds.
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          Comment


          • #6
            Obviously not saying anything Dave hasn't already said but raising flop bigger here and jamming turn. If the guy wants to play for stacks on the flop I'm not thrilled about it but I think in general folding aces on this flop (in these games) would be a mistake.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by TheLangolier View Post
              You don't want the worst hand to fold, but you also don't want to give them correct odds to chase you either.
              This is what I was thinking when I wanted to shove. But if there was a King on the turn, then I have essentially given him the hand, and would have to fold to a large bet he made after bringing me back to shoving post flop instead of turn.

              Originally posted by TheLangolier View Post
              If they fold when they have a correct price, or chase when they don't, that's fine. It's how we make our edge in poker, from opponents mistakes. Overbet shoving all in is bad in general because it forces them to play correctly and fold most worse hands, while better hands will never fold. So when you are way ahead you win the pot immediately, getting no further value from your hand, and when you're not in good shape you punt your stack off.
              Dave, bear with me as I try to wrap my head around this, so you want me to raise on the flop to an amount that makes it a bad call for him odds-wise? And I can make sense of shoving on the Turn after this sized bet post flop. And by playing like this I will make a profit long term as long as I don't pay him off when he makes the straight/flush/fantasy he was chasing? This makes sense to my amateur mind, but now I've put myself in a situation where he could just make a large bet, which may well be a bluff, and I'm faced with a decision of putting him at a straight or a bluff and that seems harder to get right.

              Originally posted by TheLangolier View Post
              The min-raise gives him a fair price to chase you... he has to call 100 more into a pot of 620, so 6.2-1. He's about 4-1 to make a flush on the turn, and 5-1 with an 8 out straight draw... so this gives him a correct call on a draw even if he never gets another chip from you when he makes his hand. You have 2 options here... either flat call, planning to raise a safe turn card, or raise more. I prefer to make it about 400 here. That means he has to call 300 into a pot of 820, 2.7-1, so drawing is a mistake as long as we don't pay off when he gets there. That would leave us 1020 to shove into a pot of 1120 on the turn if we get called on the flop, which I'd do on any blank card. Raising to 450 or 500 is fine too, as he's making a bigger mistake calling on a draw then.
              How are you calculating these odds not knowing his hole cards at the time? Just based on the straight he seems to be attempting seeing the flop?

              Comment


              • #8
                Hi,

                Friendly bump before this gets lost awaiting feedback

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by birdayy View Post
                  Explain why you want them to fold.
                  Originally posted by IBNash View Post
                  Because I am reading the flop and their ranges right and am ahead post flop. By letting them see the Turn/River I am willfully letting them get ahead. Why do you want me to keep giving them the odds to beat me? I rather take the pot now, small as it may be.
                  If you bet too small and give them proper odds to call THEN you're giving them odds to beat you,same as if you check. Worse really,because at least if you let them peel cards on a check you haven't just thrown money in bloating the pot,which IS what you're doing if you bet too small.

                  If you bet too large then you're value owning yourself and allowing only made hands to call you (if they're competent players) and folding out all the hands that you're beating. That's punting value. Giving the opponent the chance to pay an improper price to make their call is giving them the chance to make a mistake. This is how we win

                  As Dave said,we win in poker by exploiting our edges,they won't always be large,in fact most of the time they won't be. But,55-45...53-47...51-49...are all STILL edges. It's over a long line where they manifest themselves as they will be closer and close to the expected norm as the sample grows.

                  THIS is the number one reason why bankroll management is so important,you need to be rolled deep enough to be able to play for the big samples. Short term variance is turbulent and f-iclke,it comes and goes,both good and bad,unexpectedly and follows no discernible pattern. Making good decisions is controllable and therefore tangible...if you let variance affect your decision making process then you're losing before you even play.

                  Comment

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