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Folding the nut flush A with 3 suited cards on the flop

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  • Folding the nut flush A with 3 suited cards on the flop

    Hi,

    This is a hand from $0.25 NL Hold'em [90 Players] - Level IV (50/100) that I folded to a shove from Villain 4 putting him at AJ or having paired a J in the very least.

    I know raising UTG with AdTs is not recommended and I did it because the table was quite tight and I wanted to see if everyone folded for the umpteenth time again to try and steal blinds of nothing else. I suppose that is what got me into this quandary in the first place.

    I ran the numbers in Equilab, using ranges (44+,A2s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T9s,98s,A7o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo) for the Cutoff and (22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T3s+,94s+,85s+,76s,A2o+,K3 o+,Q4o+,J5o+,T6o+,97o+,87o) for the SB.

    With a flop of Jd5d2d it tells me AdTs holds 50.45% equity and will win 48.92% of the time. Should I just avoid shoving here all the time?

    http://www.boomplayer.com/poker-hand...083_11621600D4

  • #2
    Hi IBNash! With ATo from UTG, I'm going to open-muck here. While AT is a hand with potential, it's not a strong enough hand to open from UTG. If I had AA or AK or maybe AQs (even AQs is marginal from UTG), then I'd make a standard raise to 3BB (300), but other aces are too weak and need to be mucked preflop. If I saw the flop (which I would not), I have a flush draw and the opp shoves. To call the shove, I need to put 1546 into a pot that will be 4092 (37.8%), which will be the case if the other guy folds. But, there is an opp behind me. If I reshove and get called, then I'm putting in 3777 into a pot of 10100 (37.4%). I would not use those ranges for the opps when going to pokerstove.... they're way, way too wide. With no reads provided, I'd be looking at two opps that called a raise preflop (they should have a tighter range due to calling a raise). I'm going to use a 10% range for the first opp that shoves (expecting to see a number of Jx hands or better) and the other opp, IF, they decide to play, should be much tighter (about a top 5% hand). Against these ranges, my hand has 40% equity. However, if the other opp folds, then I have 9 outs to hit my flush. From the rule of 4 and 2, each out is worth 4% equity to the river and since the opp is all-in, I'm guaranteed to see both cards. This makes my hand worth 36% equity. This comes down to a read on the second opp. If they would call a shove, then I do have a +EV play to reshove. I will lose 60% of the time, but on average, I will gain chips since my hand equity is higher than my pot equity. If the other opp would fold, then it is a -EV call, as I expect to lose chips on average along with losing almost 2 in 3 times. One is a losing situation, the other is marginal-at-best. The best decision that I can make in this hand is to muck preflop as ATo is not strong enough to play from UTG. Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.umbup: John (JWK24)
    Super-Moderator



    6 Time Bracelet Winner


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    • #3
      Thanks John, I had to lookup the 2/4 rule. Let's see if I get this, so if 2-3 ppl had shoved before me and I got good pot odds it may be marginally profitable at best?

      Comment


      • #4
        To determine whether it's profitable or not is to take the hand equity - pot equity. The difference is the expected value. If the number is + then I expect to gain that % of chips by playing the hand. If the % is negative, then I expect to lose that many chips on average every time I play the hand.

        Every situation is different.

        John (JWK24)
        Super-Moderator



        6 Time Bracelet Winner


        Comment

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