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$2.5 180 man - Shove or live to fight another day?

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  • $2.5 180 man - Shove or live to fight another day?

    Hi PSO-ers, This comes on the FT Bubble of a 180 man where I'm questioning my hand strength against a LAG 29/22(32) UTG open and a 3bet shove from 7bb stack. With 12bb stack, would you shove here or let it go?

  • #2
    I am shoving here all day

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    • #3
      Our equity is pretty good here against their ranges and with 12BBs I think we have to go with it. We are already in the money and now need spots to pick up chips to finish in the top spots. I think this is a good opportunity to triple up. Of course we may bust but in the long run I think the shove is profitable.

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      • #4
        It's not so easy decision . short stack shoves over big stack , it means he has no fold equity I think his hand range would be something like 88+,AQs+,AQo+ , rarely more looser . range of UTG raiser I don't think would be less than 77+,A7s+,KJs+,QJs,ATo+,KJo+ and I think he calls our shove with ATs+,AJo,+KQs,99+ and we don't have enough fold equity against him. TT plays well HU but not MW. Tough fold but I think it's right fold . I prefer shove 89s first in rather than shoving here. But other sides we need 29.5% equity and we have 34.7% . Geo, could you write what did they have? after hand would be evaluated of course
        Last edited by Shichi-77; Mon Oct 21, 2013, 10:14 AM.

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        • #5
          I would say it should be a fold more than a shove.
          It is close though, since we can crush their ranges sometimes or we could have 18% equity.
          I guess with a 12BB stack, there isn't much room to wait for hands, so I don't mind the shove.
          I think there are some ICM considerations to be made, but I believe it's more important on 180 mans to finish top 2, since they get paid top heavy.
          I would probably fold though.

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          • #6
            For me, it's a fold.
            But you all know I'm a super "nit".
            However, I'm pretty sure that if you shove here you are getting called from the UTG player (just like Shichi-77 worded it - "TT plays well HU, but not MW").
            If it was a MTT tournament with a large field, then I would shove (no question), but because it's a SnG I would fold this one and "live to fight another" hand.

            Just my 0.02 cents.
            Bracelet Winner

            Comment


            • #7
              Hi George,

              Very gross spot imo. I'm inclined to shove, although it may be an ICM fold. We are already in the money and have somewhere between 15-17 players left as we have 8 on our table. I suspect UTG is not opening the full 22%, but even if we give him something like 15% and give the short stack 13% we're still over 38% equity. If we call and win we'll be at 37K or 27K (depending on if V1 calls or folds). If we call and lose to V5 but beat V1 we'll have little change, being at like 12K. If we lose to V1 we're out, but his range is the wider of the 2 and thus we both have some fold equity vs. him + our best hand equity. And it's a turbo... while we do have first in fold equity shoving 12bb's, the next time it comes around the big blind will be 1600 and we'll only have 7.5 or so big blinds to shove first in.

              It may even be an ICM shove tbh. But it's probably close.
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