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.25, 1 45 man SnG Downswing? or leak? in this formula?

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  • .25, 1 45 man SnG Downswing? or leak? in this formula?

    I'm very annoyed and sad because I can't in money 17 times a row

    Here is My Bust out formula
    1. Suck out early in AA, KK in pre flop all in fight
    2. I usually seat left to big stack
    (big stack << me << short stack)
    3. If i shove all in, big stack usually calls and I usually suck out only have 25%~10% probability
    4. If I try steal bilnds short stack is usually shove all in so I cant call because If I lose all in fight I'll be short stack
    5. I'm usually bust out in final table bubble or semi final table
    6. If I have QQ+ AKs I usually lose and bust out since bad beats. but how can I fold this hand in short stack?
    7. If I survive untll final table short stack will be double up and started stack divided and If I have all in I always lose every time (Thats reason is why I'm play very tight in bubble except I have 8th place)
    8. I'm usually bust out 75/150~100/200/25 and 10th~16th place

    1. is it formula are only downswing effect?
    2. or not. what is my leak?
    3. How can I get chips in semi final table?

    p.s this article have problem?
    p.s2 - I'm trying record playing SnG

  • #2
    1. I've had spells of 20+ games where I've failed to cash in 6 max games and that's with a 14% ROI. Don't worry about the past 17 games, that's in the past, look to the future. You really need a big sample to know if your a winner or loser. I've lost 10+ of these 45 man games regularly as well.

    2. Look over the times where you've won or lost chips and ask yourself could you have done anything different?

    3. Don't call as much as you raise or fold. Calling to speculate just gets you into so much trouble.

    4. Under 10BBs think about shoving but think harder about calling. It's much better to get your chips in with A2o on the button if your first to act rather than call AKo in BB in a 3 way all in pot.

    5. Raise to isolate and also to charge for your holdings. Don't get fancy with hands like AA, you will get caught.

    That's just a few things I can think of. Post a hand or two where you think you played badly and get some feedback.

    I've a 30%+ ROI in these games at the under a $1 level.
    Bracelet Winner


    • #3
      Hi omote23,

      Like Ovalman,I had good success with the 45 mans when US players could play here. Was a little over +40% ROI in around 350 .25's. And I had a couple occasions in there where I blanked for 12 to 15 games. So it's not unnatural for this to happen. And it certainly doesn't mean you can't be profitable in these games.

      If this drought is mostly a product of beats and coolers then just stick with what's working in your game and ride it out. If you're constantly hitting the bubble as one of the short stacks then you're probably passing on some situations where you could have accumulated some chips in the middle game. As for getting it in for stacks early in these with AA and KK and getting sucked out on...this WILL happen from time to time. But if a villain or villains are willing to play for stacks pre-flop in these and you have AA or KK...GET IT IN. Over the long haul it's a wildly profitable play.

      Best thing I can suggest is that you do what Oval said and post some hands for us to look over. I would try and get hands that you're unsure about your line on from multiple stages of the games: early,middle stage,2 table bubble,hard bubble (8-10 players left) and hands after the bubble bursts and you're ITM.

      Try to include as many stats,notes and observations as possible on players involved in the hand as that always helps immensely in giving you the best feedback.



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