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"Buying" a gutshot

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  • "Buying" a gutshot

    is it considered +EV to try and "buy" a gutshot against a very low c-bat or value bet if that gutshot would give you the nuts and therefor the pot?

    for example - im very deep stacked (close to 2000BBs) , i have JQ and there is a flop of 28K9 - the pot is at 890 and the villian bets 120 into the pot, is it worthwile for me to call in hopes of getting the 10 on the river?
    or should i always give up the hand in that situation?

  • #2
    Hi bigfoot2212!

    It depends on the odds of the particular hand...

    In this one, you'd have to call 120 into a pot that will be 1010 (11.9%). The 4 outs are worth 2% equity per street, so to see the river, the hand is worth 8%.

    Since the pot equity is higher than my hand equity... it's a MUCK.

    If the hand equity is higher, it's a call... if the pot equity is higher, it's a muck.

    John (JWK24)

    6 Time Bracelet Winner


    • #3
      ok i can understand your math there, thanks


      • #4
        Floating to play opponent off another street adds value to calling gutshots but it has to be very player specific. Works well against maniacs that can fold, some players CBet/ raise every flop and give up if the get any action.
        Bracelet Winner


        • #5
          If you have QJ and the board is 28K9 then you usually shouldn't have even seen the turn card, unless the flop was checked through, which seems unlikely in this spot, given the size of the pot. Evaluating the strength of your hand on the flop is very important. With QJ on K82 (one of the driest flops imaginable), you have no pair and no draw, so shouldn't be seeing a turn.

          When you become a more accomplished player, you'll be able to factor in things like implied odds (the likelihood of winning additional bets on the river when you hit your draw) and fold equity (the possibility of taking the pot with a semi-bluff raise), but I'd recommend that beginners play a straightforward style, looking to make good top pairs (or better), and only chasing strong draws (8 outs or more) if the pot lays the right immediate odds. If you've not yet seen them, work through the PSO courses, and pay particular attention to the article about the Rule of Two and Four.

          Hope this helps!
          Bracelet Winner



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