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PSO Open FT bubble

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  • PSO Open FT bubble

    The player had been tight and was short stacked and his UTG shove looked like a desperate one to avoid being blinded out. Iv been talking with a friend and were both in two minds if it was the right move.

  • #2
    This looks like a pot-odds "call with any two" situation. The pot is laying odds of better than 3 to 1! If you call, the pot will be 455,376 and it costs you 107,688 to make the call. That means you break even if you have 107,688/455,376 = 23.6% equity.
    Even if this guy was only shoving 99+ and AK, you'd have 25% equity here. Against a more typical range for shoving his stack in, you'll have at least 35% equity, and might have much more. (Against a random hand, you're a slight favourite, even, as Q8 is slightly better than average.)

    The only problem with making the "easy call" is that this is a league game. You can fold here and still have 300k. The nit will be pretty much forced to go all in on the next hand in the BB, and there's a reasonable chance that someone else (if not you yourself) will bust him. I'm not sure how valuable in terms of league points it will be to make it to the FT by blinding out instead of possibly getting crippled here. I'm generally always calling here though. The price is too good, and you have enough equity for this to be profitable.
    Bracelet Winner

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    • #3
      Hi DrDonkin! The bubble of a league game needs to be played the same as a satellite bubble. Until the bubble bursts, as long as I have enough chips to get ITM (and the extra league points for doing so), I cannot take ANY chances... no chances at all, regardless of pot odds, etc. I'm mucking this here 100% of the time and will not play a hand until the bubble bursts. If by losing the hand, I won't have enough chips to get ITM, I'm mucking AA preflop here. What is gained by the extra tourney chips will NEVER outweigh the extra league points for getting ITM and lasting longer in the tourney. Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.umbup: John (JWK24)
      Super-Moderator



      6 Time Bracelet Winner


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      • #4
        Hi JWK

        This is the bubble to the final table not the points bubble so do we still fold? are the points much bigger between 9th and 1st? This is my first time playing the league so I'm not sure how the points work yet but I am aware that you must play these tournaments different to a regular MTT and survive as long as possible to gain points.

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        • #5
          There are bonus points for the final table. These will greatly help with the month end standings.

          John (JWK24)
          Super-Moderator



          6 Time Bracelet Winner


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