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$3.50 fifty50, bubble...is this a shove? (3)

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  • $3.50 fifty50, bubble...is this a shove? (3)

    i know its prety light to shove with this hand, but on the bubble people tend to get in'survival mode' and its a chance to chip up. i think i have some fold equity and i want to use it, before it runs out. blinds become bigger, and hit you really fast when 6 handed. if i wait for a big hand i might get blinded out. should i play almost like a maniac on the bubble? what hands are good for this? is the stack sizes of players left to act and how big the blinds are, a factor?
    Last edited by Espada_Nu.4; Fri Apr 12, 2013, 12:44 PM.

  • #2
    Hi Espada,

    I'm not an expert on this format unfortunately. But I've adapater my ICM spreadsheet I think to look at this scenario.

    I think you are thinking about the right things here on the bubble. Taking advantage of good stealing oppurtunities will be important in maintaining a good ROI in these games.

    Sitting waiting for the bubble to burst I can see it costing you about 15c per orbit in profit. Doesn't sound like much but it's profit so probably losing about 4% ROI per orbit you nit it up waiting for the bubble to pop, you better hope they pop quickly .

    The main thing we are looking for is Fold Equity. I think you have pretty decent fold equity in this spot against everyone except the BB who could call you and still have a stack big enough to cash.

    Being that the vast majority of profit is coming from fold equity it doesn't matter too much what we are holding. Holding a premium obviously and extra EV in a shove but the majority of profit still comes from the fold equity.

    So calculating how much fold equity we have we're looking at how many players left to act and how what range of hands are they calling with.

    We currently have $4 in equity.
    Shoving and winning improves our equity to $6.66.
    Shoving and losing we loose all our equity
    Shoving and stealing blinds improves our equity to $4.90

    I put in 3 scenarios into my calculator.

    Everyone behind is tight. Calling with a 7% range (88+,ATs+,KTs+,AQo+) with 3 people left to act that means we steal successfully 79% of the time. We would profit 30c

    Everyone behind is medium tight. Calling with a 10% range (88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo) with 3 people left to act that means we steal successfully 70% of the time. We would profit 8c

    Everyone behind is medium loose. Calling with a 15% range (77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo) with 3 people left to act that means we steal successfully 55% of the time. We would lose 38c

    So it comes down to our reads on how often the opposition is calling.

    Looking at these numbers there doesn't seem to be a huge edge in shoving here. So unless we are certain they are all tight and only calling with that 7% or less range I would pass this spot.

    On the button with only 2 people to act and without the bigger stack in the BB I think this would be a profitable shove.

    Also note that although profitable these shoves will still be high variance and no guarantee you won't lose this trial.

    Good Luck
    Andy


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