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maybe icm fold?

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  • maybe icm fold?

    http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-h...940_C23DEE3263
    this player has been verry agressive
    Triple Bracelet Winner


  • #2
    Originally posted by adohole View Post
    http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-h...940_C23DEE3263
    this player has been verry agressive

    Your never folding AK here, low stacked and against agro player imo ! a higher percentage of the time your hand holds and you move up
    Bracelet Winner

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    • #3
      the reason why i posted this hands is if i fold there is somone with 2.5bb who will defenitly bust before me and 2 other short stacks and AK is almost never far ehad and its a drawing hand i dont know if somoene has the icm number or a site where i can see it?
      Triple Bracelet Winner

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      • #4
        I disagree with chillipops, but hey, to each their own

        With 3 players with lower stacks and having the possibilities of busting before you, I would of folded to the big stack. By calling, you were putting your tournament life on the line, I would of waited for a better position and a made hand vs. the big stack.

        AK is a strong hand, but only a strong potential hand. Sure, some people will prone ATC, but you need a strong bankroll and you've got to be playing plenty of these games to take chances like that.

        Here's my blog on AK:
        http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/blogs/post/?id=44562

        JUST my 2 cents

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        • #5
          Hi adohole,

          Interesting spot actually.

          My inital thoughts are call. Reason being we are inside the money already. The biggest money bump is normally 8th to 7th until we get up to 4th. So ICM has less effect once the money bubble bursts. AKo is ahead of this guys range by a decent margin. Winning the hand makes us equal chip lead and we have a real shot at winning it. And just the gut feel that in a Turbo and with 7BBs we really can't fold AKo

          But the question was ICM so I plugged in the numbers

          Code:
           
          Stacks     Current EV   Win          WinEV      Lose         LoseEV 
          8,570.00    9.66       19,390.00     12.61      0             3.67 
          6,240.00    8.78        6,240.00      8.30      6,240.00      9.75 
          3,005.00    6.72        3,005.00      6.19      3,005.00      7.81 
          11,310.00  10.84       11,310.00     10.45     11,310.00      11.64 
          6,915.00    9.11        6,915.00      8.65      6,915.00      10.06 
          29,210.00   13.95      20,640.00     12.87     40,030.00      16.14

          So if we win we gain about $3 in $EV and if we lose we lose about $6 in $EV

          Meaning we're risking $6 to win $3 we need to win 66% of the time to break even.

          Vs his actual holdings we don't have it, vs a range including the actual holding we don't have the odds.

          This ICM analysis isn't pure though since we aren't closing the action. Other short stacks could call behind with worse than us and still bust before us when we lose and also improve the upside when we win more chips.

          Other things ICM doesn't take into consideration is stack size, skill levels, position of the button (who pays the BB next hand etc), speed of the tourney.

          So although we don't have the exact odds to call this shove, we aren't far off. Adding in those other intangibles I think I'm more comfortable with a call than a fold.

          Cheers
          Andy
          Last edited by ahar010; Fri Apr 12, 2013, 12:48 AM.


          Quad Bracelet Winner

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          • #6
            Originally posted by ahar010 View Post
            Hi adohole,

            Interesting spot actually.

            My inital thoughts are call. Reason being we are inside the money already.

            Andy
            Andy, I assume that he wasn't in the money yet
            I think there was 11-12 players left

            But if he was in the money, than yes, it's a call

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
              I would of folded to the big stack. By calling, you were putting your tournament life on the line, I would of waited for a better position and a made hand vs. the big stack.
              The phrase beggers can't be choosers comes to mind

              With the big stack shoving there really is no making a hand before commiting. AKo is about the best equity we can expect unless we get super lucky and pickup a big premium pair in the next 2-3 hands.


              Quad Bracelet Winner

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
                Andy, I assume that he wasn't in the money yet
                I think there was 11-12 players left

                But if he was in the money, than yes, it's a call
                Yeah it's final table. Stacks sizes add up to 45 starting stacks


                Quad Bracelet Winner

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                • #9
                  thanks guys whas indeed in the money already
                  Triple Bracelet Winner

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