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Storm Anniversary hand

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  • Storm Anniversary hand

    Think this is a real marginal spot: only 40 hands on this player but 45% VPiP 5% PFR and 0% 3 bet. These stats change significantly after this hand so I understand reading these stats are only a guide. Should I flat here? Could be an AK, AQs type or an over pair. He's 0% steal and 0% fold to a steal so he's a good fish we all want to see. I folded but was it the correct play? AA or KK with his under re-raise? Thoughts?
    Bracelet Winner

  • #2
    Hi Ovalman,

    I think folding is ok here.

    The opponent has very passive stats. I think 40 hands and to see him play 16 for calls and 2 for a raise means a 3bet is a real hand.

    The other option I think it flat call with the intention to set mine. We are generally looking for 15:1 implied odds so in this instance 400 chips to call, means we need to be able to win 6,000. We only have 5300 in our stack so not quite there. This spot does have a few more things go for it though. The guys hand strength looks good so he's likley to go with his hand a little more often, he's a loose opponent so again more likley to stack off with one pair on the flop. Also the fact that there's already 1550 in there (when we call) so should be easier to get the rest in.

    Going against the set mine spot is position. Being first to act we will likely check to the raiser on the flop, if they don't CBet it could be difficult to get stacks in.

    I think position probably sways it to a fold. If it was one of the blinds 3betting we would have position and be in a better spot to set mine and control the size of the pot when we hit.

    Hope you had a good run.

    Andy


    Quad Bracelet Winner

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    • #3
      Thanks Andy umbup:
      Bracelet Winner

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