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How could I have won this?

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  • How could I have won this?

    This is 45 man SNG, 25c. About 4th hand of the tournament, so no reads. Before that there were no flops. I bet 3x, should I have just gone all in pre-flop? Obviously not much I can do once he flops a flush and I didn't bet big thinking that's what he had, but he kept checking. Did I need to bet more to stop him from calling?

  • #2
    Hi Evoke,

    You bet 4x over a limper pre, which is good imo.

    When he calls your flop c-bet I think his range is largely made hands that's a big K or better (including some flushes) and single big spades, the As or Qs. Maybe both like KhQs.

    I would actually bet again on the turn, to get value from both the lone kings and lone big spads, about 200, and fold to a raise as I would expect that to always be KJ+ if we get check-raised on the turn.

    As played, I this is a fold on the river. Now a big chunk of the hands in their range that we were beating have pulled ahead of us making trips, and they are making a big bet which screams value to me. We are basically only beating a bluff now and this bet seems awful big to be a bluff.

    Lastly, the title of the post and the questions you're asking indicate a fundamental problem with your thought process... results oriented thinking. Focus on your decisions, not "how you could have won this hand". You're not going to win every hand you play, and you're not going to win with AA every time you receive it. This guy limped and called a 4x raise out of position with Q7, that's fantastic for you. You don't want to stop players from doing this, you want them to do more of it. Yes it stinks when they get lucky, but this is a very favorable position to be putting yourself in. There is a LOT more long term EV in having players call your raise OOP with garbage than forcing them to fold and picking up 50 chips when you have aces.

    So I would say you played it great preflop (and now that we know how loose and spewy this villain is I would in a similar situation raise to 5 or 6x, for pure value). Post flop you were destined to lose, but ranging and decisions are the determining factor in how much.
    Head Live Trainer
    Check out my Videos

    4 Time Bracelet Winner



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    • #3
      Ah good point about the decisions vs pot winning. I read the same thing jus yesterday in super/system2.
      I'm not quite sure how to put opponents on a range. Are there any videos on the subject you'd recommend?

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      • #4
        Hi EvokeNZ!

        Take a look at numbers 3, 41, 42 here.

        John (JWK24)
        Super-Moderator



        6 Time Bracelet Winner


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        • #5
          An open comment (and question for hand analyzers who are still watching): my current playing style would lead me to make a pot-sized bet on the flop, with the hope of scaring off single-spade flush draws but getting action from a . Assuming that the opponent called, I would then check behind on the turn and possibly fold on the river, depending on how big his river bet was (probably folding to anything more than about a 1/3 pot bet). I know that technically, the half-pot bet on the flop should chase off flush draws, since they need about 4:1 but would only be getting 3:1 on the call. However, I've been thinking a lot lately about implied odds--a villain with the might reasonably be willing to check-call with 3:1 pot odds knowing that if they hit a fourth spade they may still win more bets on the turn/river. Villain might also be hoping that I would check behind on the turn, in which case he would see two cards for the price of that flop bet, giving him 2:1 drawing odds for a 3:1 call. (And obviously, a player with no concept of drawing odds may be chasing this anyway, but less likely to do it when facing a larger flop bet.) Thoughts? -- CanuckMonkey
          Bracelet Winner

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          • #6
            Betsizing bigger is fine as long as you're still getting called by worse hands. And you're right, some players will pay the price anyway on a draw as they just can't resist and will tell themselves all the things you mentioned to justify it.

            Just remember when you do bet larger you're also bloating the pot which makes it harder for you to get away later in the hand as well when they get there.
            Head Live Trainer
            Check out my Videos

            4 Time Bracelet Winner



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            • #7
              Originally posted by CanuckMonkey View Post
              An open comment (and question for hand analyzers who are still watching): my current playing style would lead me to make a pot-sized bet on the flop, with the hope of scaring off single-spade flush draws but getting action from a .
              I prefer a smaller bet on monotone flops, especially when we don't have the nut flush draw. Villain is usually only continuing in the hand if he has top pair+, the flush draw or a made flush. Everything else is folding whatever bet size you use. When villain is fairly weak (a king or the draw), the smaller bet gives you value. If he's strong (set, flush, 2pr) then you lose the minimum when he raises you. Conserving those tourney chips is crucial for later on. You don't want to build a big pot with a one pair hand that is easily beaten in this situation. (If the pot gets very large on this board, AA is almost always second best).
              Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Wed Mar 06, 2013, 01:37 PM.
              Bracelet Winner

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              • #8
                Thanks Dave and Arty, this is some very good stuff to be thinking about.

                Arty, I especially appreciate your point about the kinds of hands that are calling vs. folding on the flop--I was mostly focusing my thoughts on the top pair and flush draw, but not thinking about how the made flush, set, or two pair might respond to my bet sizing decision.

                Cheers,

                -- CanuckMonkey
                Bracelet Winner

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                • #9
                  If I may I'd like to address your post from another angle. That angle being unrealistic expectations. This post is titled "How-could-I-have-won-this". Although rockets are the best hand pre-flop, they are not 100% winners. Remember: Chips not lost are just as valuable as chips won.

                  Poker is not about winning the most pots. It's about accumulating the most chips. We all know that but it still hurts when they lose, some more than others. Just because you lost the hand does not mean you made a mistake.

                  The question to ask when reviewing a hand is "Did I play optimally based on the information available at each decision point?". That question typically has one of three answers: yes, no, or too close too call. If the answer is no you have an opportunity to grow and learn.

                  Good decisions!

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                  • #10
                    I think your preflop play is fine. On the flop, it's definitely fine to bet as you did and he just called. When he just calls, I actually think you have the best hand a lot of time and you're better off betting the turn to charge some draws or hands with a single spade. When you check, you let those hands off way too easily in my opinion. However, as played, when you check back the turn, and he bets pot on the river with the top card pairing, I think I can find a fold. The odds are not great and I don't think the opponent will be betting a pair lower than trips here so strongly. It looks like he's got a big hand like trips+ or he's got some airball with a spade. The thing is, there aren't many hands with a spade that he would check call on the flop that doesn't have a piece.
                    Last edited by nanonoko; Fri Apr 11, 2014, 03:57 AM.

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                    • #11
                      holy moly nanonoko in my thread

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by TrumpinJoe View Post
                        If I may I'd like to address your post from another angle. That angle being unrealistic expectations. This post is titled "How-could-I-have-won-this". Although rockets are the best hand pre-flop, they are not 100% winners. Remember: Chips not lost are just as valuable as chips won.

                        Poker is not about winning the most pots. It's about accumulating the most chips. We all know that but it still hurts when they lose, some more than others. Just because you lost the hand does not mean you made a mistake.

                        The question to ask when reviewing a hand is "Did I play optimally based on the information available at each decision point?". That question typically has one of three answers: yes, no, or too close too call. If the answer is no you have an opportunity to grow and learn.

                        Good decisions!
                        Yep, I get that. I guess if I'd asked "did I make a good decision", the answer would have been yes or no, or maybe even good enough (as I'd received fold/bet/call answers). I thought maybe some different pre-flop strategy could have discouraged the villain, but I guess not.

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