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did i paly this poorly (again or was it ok?)

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  • did i paly this poorly (again or was it ok?)

    90man 25cent SnG 16 players remain. Villain 8 played the whole torny LAG but in last few orbits has been playing MANIAC. if I bust I get 0 where as if i sit back and wait for premier hands I might still get 0 or just a min cash, have had several spots like this in the last few sng's and starting to think i should be just waiting it out this close to the bubble.. Thoughts? Grade b
    Last edited by Grade b; Mon Feb 11, 2013, 12:49 AM. Reason: wrong position...
    I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

    13 Time Bracelet Winner



  • #2
    i will shove all day.....my call/fold button disappear in these spot.....even if i m up against reg

    Comment


    • #3
      This villain is clearly a donk. If this was last night I think I was in this same SnG, there were a few donks playing like this.

      There are two lines of though about situations like this. The first line is that the villain is making huge mistakes so you can easily get it in way ahead and will in the long run own him. The second line of though is that this villain had very little skill. You could keep grinding your stack up out playing him rather than giving him the option of gambling to accumulate a large amount of chips. Essentially saying getting it all in pre is the same as gambling here as he could have literally any two cards.

      Personally I'm snapping him off at some point, seems as good as spot as any.

      Tournament of Champions Winner 2013

      Bracelet Winner

      Comment


      • #4
        Hi Grade b,

        This is a fold for me. We are close to the bubble and have 20BBs remaining. Still plenty of time left. Folding here definately does not resign us to a bubble or a min cash. We don't need to sit and wait for premiums but we do want to pick spots where we have a big edge and close to the bubble should try to minimise high variance plays I think.

        This spot is very high variance and not very good for us EV-wise either.

        If the guy is a maniac then he's probably not going to make it 6x and ever fold. The limper has 3000 behind, we can assume the maniac wouldn't be folding if the limper shove and so probably not if you shove for another 1000 either.

        We he does call us I think there's probably 80% chance we are up against 2 overcards. Maybe 10% 1 over card with A2s or a smaller pair. And 10% chance it's a bigger pocket pair.

        Also some weaker players will make these really big preflop bets with really strong hands like KK (maybe not AA since they like to slow play that one LOL)

        Vs that range 55 does not play well. Flipping at best I think most of the time and flipping for 20BBs only 4 players off the money is very high variance.

        -----

        Ok, now I watched the rest of the hand. I'm surprised he shows up with 97o but not surprised he calls us at all. Best case scenario for us though we catch him bluffing and we have 52% equity in the hand.

        Now looking through ICM glasses. With 52% equity on average we pick up 600 chips which gives us a very tiny bump in prize equity, maybe +10%. But 48% of the time we lose the pot and lose -100% of our current prize equity.

        We add those two outcomes together we can see it's a pretty big -ve prize equity spot.

        The problem is the our hand doesn't play well at showdown and we have very little fold equity here.

        Hope that makes sense.

        20BBs close to the bubble I think is a great position for a late run. Patience. Watch him and catch him when you have the goods or have him dominated.

        Andy


        Quad Bracelet Winner

        Comment


        • #5
          ty for the replies everyone,

          I need to look at some of my around the bubble play with differant types of villains.


          ahar010, would this play be ok with 10BB's or 7BB's?


          (ps fadyan this was last week but have to say yes last night came across more of the same.)


          Grade b
          I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

          13 Time Bracelet Winner


          Comment


          • #6
            Yes, shorter we could think about calling.

            10BBs I think I would still be folding.

            5-6BBs then I think the gamble is worth more. We are getting a pretty good price at that point.

            So looking at the stacks at 6BBs for instance.

            1BB invested from BB. 5BBs (1250 left behind).

            If we fold we have 1250 left for a prize equity of perhaps 35c or so.

            If we bust prize equity is 0c this will happen roughly 50% of the time if we call.

            If we call in (assume the limper still folds) and win the pot is 3450. Which is 2.75 times the stack we have left if we fold. This doesn't ammount to 2.75 times in prize equity but probably atleast 2.5 times since now we have a more playable stack and we assume an edge on the field.

            So we could guess a prize equity of 85c if we call and win, which will happen roughly 50% of the time.

            So now we can lose -100% or gain 150%. Now the ledger is in our favour and it's time to gamble before the bubble.

            These aren't exact calculations you can do while in the hand. But you should be able to work out your stack now if you fold, your rough stack if you win and stack if you lose and estimate a value on each of those by gut.

            Andy


            Quad Bracelet Winner

            Comment


            • #7
              ty Andy, I will try and wait till I get lower before making this type of play in future games.

              Grade b
              I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

              13 Time Bracelet Winner


              Comment

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