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Call off your stack or not ?

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  • Call off your stack or not ?

    Heey guys, This is a 1,50 dollar 90 man Sng-MTT final table. I min-raised utg with 99,everyone folded till rmorphdog ,his stats was 23/7 and he made a 1,5x 3bet.I played some pots with him,but i cant remember what his tendencies were etc.So his raising range might be a little bit tighter than his calling range.I think i was up against a range of AJo+ and JJ+. Flop: He c-betted and I expected that,because he was c-betting 100% of the time and he was very aggresive on the flop.If he c-bet his cards was pretty faced up like every Ace and King rag missed and suited connectors didnt connect with the board,but I think calling is fine.I have so much equity in this pot. Turn: He was also capable to fire 2 bullets and when I looked at his ''river'' stats,he just fire 20% a third bullet.I think he might be bluffing again and I was obviously not folding at this point.I was a little bit worried about his 1/3 bet on the turn,he might do it for value or as a bluff.Raising here was not really a good option if a Ace King or Queen comes on the river,my hand will be second best,so I made a call again. River: I made a full house and he every card of his 3betting range might missed,unless JJ+. That guy shoves into me and I tank.Why would you shove to get value from your own hand.I mean,bet around 30-40% of the pot to get value from me.I've never seen that he make a river shove for value or bluff... I also think that he think he perceive me as a tag player so I also might raising with any ace or king rag pre-flop,called his 3bet and also called him down to the river.I also might think that he thinkat guy plays so passive,not what I expected so i will raise him down. I still dont know if that guy has TT+ or something,dont have enough reads on that guy sigh*. I think he was bluffing but... Any advice to my play?

  • #2
    He made a min 3-bet pre-flop. Personally I am not a fan on min bets but some use them frequently.

    Tough spot because you played it so passive. With your read of his range of AJ+, JJ+, about 1/3 of their range is an overpair. This means 2/3 of the time you are ahead on the flop so why give him what is essentially now a free card? I'd raise here and put him to the test.

    Good decisions.
    Last edited by TrumpinJoe; Tue Jan 01, 2013, 11:01 PM.

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    • #3
      Overall stats of 23/7 indicate a semi-loose passive player. Based on the stats, and the way the hand develops, he's quite fishy, and probably only 3-bets super-premiums. (If his PFR is only 7%, his 3-bet percentage is probably more like 2%). The min 3-bet gives you great odds to call and spike a set, but I think villain's 3-bet range is QQ+ and maybe AK. You flopped an overpair, but it's almost never good here. I can't see him barrelling AKs unless it's specifically AcKc for the NFD. He has an overpair very often and his river shove is seldom a bluff, as he should know that it would be looked up by almost any full house. On this board, you're only beating 88-77, 55 and bluffs. There's too much that crushes you, and it's not even going to be cheap to find out for sure.
      Bracelet Winner

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      • #4
        Hi MolaSalo!

        With any two cards that I'm going to play, I'm NEVER min raising, especially out of position, as I'll be giving odds to the opps to try to outdraw me. With 99 here, I'm going to make a standard raise to 2.5BB+1BB for each limper, so I'll bet 1500.

        I then get min-raised back. Here is where I need to make my decision in the hand. I either need to re-raise the opp (3X their bet or 5400) or muck. With a bet of 1800, the stacks aren't deep enough for me to setmine, so I'm raising or folding.

        If the numbers that you provide are correct, then this opp should only be raising a top 7% hand. I then go to pokerstove to see how my 99 does against their range and see that I only have 43.9% equity (I'll lose more than I'll win). When I get 3-bet here with these odds, I'm going to muck.

        ------
        If I was in the hand, once again, I'm either raising or folding to the flop c-bet. If I think the opp has a pair, I'm folding. If I put them on two overcards, I'm making a standard raise to 3X their bet (7200)... but, this bet would pot-commit me. Therefore, I now have to either shove or fold.

        If I call the flop and turn, there is no way that I'm folding the river here, as I'm pot committed. The turn bet from them is also fishy, as it's only 1/3 pot. This bet prices IN draws and when the draws miss and the opp shoves the river, their betting pattern doesn't make sense. Weak pre, strong flop, weak turn, shove river????????? It just don't make sense.

        I think the keys here are to make a standard raise and not a min-raise, then to either raise/fold both to the min-raise pre and on the flop... not to call and let the opp have the lead in the hand and dictate the betting. I'd be more inclined to muck preflop and shove the flop here.

        Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.: Thumbup:

        John (JWK24)
        Super-Moderator



        6 Time Bracelet Winner


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