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Another hand where I know I'm behind but can I get away from it?

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  • Another hand where I know I'm behind but can I get away from it?

    Villian 9 was 21% VPiP, 21% PFR and this is 5 handed on a final table. His stats increased as the players thinned, he was quite a rock up until then. He only ever shoved before and his min raise is such a fishy monster. I timebanked before reshoving. I'm not concerned about Villian 3 in this pot even though it was the winner. Can you/ should you fold if you get a specific read like this?
    Bracelet Winner

  • #2
    Stats make no difference here, I'm shoving any pocket pair on this stack.

    Bracelet Winner


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    • #3
      Hi Ovalman,

      I like your read. If the guy has definately only been shoving up until now, this is a very strong sign of a KK or AA type hand, especially on this short of a stack. We know we never have any fold equity with both ourselves and the villan being this short.

      With the overlay of the blinds and antes we need 43% equity to make the reshove. I think with your read having the villan range weighted so much towards monsters I think you're fine going with your gut and folding here. Even if it means shoving the next hand UTG with any 2.

      Thanks
      Andrew


      Quad Bracelet Winner

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      • #4
        You're a good player Oval. My advice would be that if you've worked to get a specific read on a player then this is exactly the type of spot such a read can be most useful. A reads only as strong as your ability to trust it and utilize it,after all. umbup:

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        • #5
          Well said Moxie


          Quad Bracelet Winner

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          • #6
            Originally posted by ahar010 View Post
            I think with your read having the villan range weighted so much towards monsters I think you're fine going with your gut and folding here. Even if it means shoving the next hand UTG with any 2.
            At first glance, I would be so excited that my 6BB stack got dealt such a quality hand, that I would be falling over myself to get my chips in the pot. I suppose these "min-raise with a monster" reads can be more reliable than one might think. Maybe this will turn out to be the new way to leverage and maximize fold equity -- mixing in a few more hands into your min-raising range on a super short stack, hands that you would normally shove with (A8s+, KT+, 66+). It almost seems that some players see a shove of a 6-8 BB stack as a sign of vulnerability and snap-call with anything decent. Of course, it´s read-dependent and in this case hero had seen nothing but shoves from this player. An interesting spot all around.

            Originally posted by ahar010 View Post
            With the overlay of the blinds and antes we need 43% equity to make the reshove.
            I´d like to grasp this concept better. Could you explain which formula this figure comes from? Does it come from PokerStove? This calculation assumes our 3-bet shove would be called 100%, correct? I assume this is not the fold equity formula 0=XP+(1-X)(-LV+WH).

            Thanks in advance for your reply, Andrew.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by deadmoneykid View Post
              I suppose these "min-raise with a monster" reads can be more reliable than one might think.
              I´d like to add that anytime a player becomes so predictable that he makes a player correctly lay down TT on a 6 BB stack, he´s doing something wrong -- he´s turning his hand face up. There´s no way a bet-sizing tell should be that reliable. So if anyone catches themselves min-raising AA/KK and 3x-ing everything else, it´s time to change that.

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