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$1.10 MTT Exit Hand 2

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  • $1.10 MTT Exit Hand 2

    I wasn't sure this was worth posting, no subtle action here - but the more I have looked through my play in this tournament the more I am wondering about my final decision here. It seemed a simple decision to shove - and although the result is obviously bad, I am trying not to be results oriented and just think about the factors I should have taken account of before making the move. I had been playing reasonably well so far in this tournament, had accumulated some chips and I was running about 350th at this point which was inside the bubble spots, which paid to 378th - and we were down to just under 500 left of 2,573 starters - I reckon I was better than 50/50 to cash without playing another hand - and any further chip accumulation would make it very likely. The opps seemed surprisingly good at this table - no maniacs - and there had been some good play and tight decisions from most opps that I could usually understand why they were making them when I saw showdowns. When the table folds to me with a reasonable hand like 99 I thought my best option was to leverage my fold equity with 15BBs, mainly hoping to take the dead money uncontested very often. I didn't want to fold a medium strength hand, or limp - so I felt a raise was best. But was the shove correct? I have 15BBs - post-bubble I think I will shove here most times - but maybe with only 100 to the bubble I should be more conservative. Would a smaller more standard raise 2.2/2.5/3.0 x the BB have achieved the 'steal' when it was going to work anyway and left me room to fold to a 3-bet shove? Am I likely to look as though I am stealing light and get called lighter by hands I am only a slight favourite to, like Ax/Kx/Qx broadways - or by very strong bigger pairs that I am a dog to? The more I think about it the less convinced I am which was the best option. It has crossed my mind that when so many players fold to me in the cut-off, it is more likely that the players behind in the button/blinds will have all the big cards - is this paranoid! Any thoughts welcome.
    Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Tue Nov 13, 2012, 05:36 PM.
    4 Time Bracelet Winner

  • #2
    Hi EdinFreeman,

    I think a shove is fine. I definately think it's +EV shoving 15BBs here with 99.

    Shoving should be your standard line here I think. If we raise 2. or 2.5x we don't really want to fold to a shove. When we get called we also have a bit of a bloated pot compared to our stack, but I think we would still have room to CBet and fold.

    Reasons for diverging from a standard shove I think would be villan dependant, if the button and blinds were all very tight players VPIP < 12 perhaps then we have an option to raise and fold to a shove because when these guys wakeup and shove they are more likely to have 99 in bad shape. Even when we get a flat call this type of player again would be less likley to float a CBet.

    I don't think trying to protect a min cash still over 120 players out from the bubble is a good reason to divert from a shove here, I think it costs us too much in chip EV.

    Regardless of opponent a shove here is never wrong, and winning a flip or something in this spot gives you a good shot at running deeper.


    Quad Bracelet Winner



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