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Tough spot on river with flopped set

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  • Tough spot on river with flopped set

    Hi guys First up here is the hand, $11 MTT, still in the first hour of the tournament Villain_4 was 35/0 through ~40 hands, not any 'reads' except he called flop and turn bets with 2nd pair which picked up gutshot on turn (and hit on river but we chopped) against me. Villain_7: 14/11 through ~60 hands but doesnt really play a part in my tough spot. I think the preflop complete from SB is pretty standard, as well as the flop and turn bets. On the river I thought about betting; but I don't really want to shove here, but with his stack size relative to the pot it would be awkward to bet/fold, so I checked hoping to win at showdown. However he declines and bets 1200 (from his ~2400 behind) into 2800... As well as the obvious straight I also thought it possible that he could have the flush, having just called on the turn to keep the 3rd player in the pot. Any thought are appreciated umbup: Cheers Another thought that I forgot to write: what straight can this guy have considering he called 2 streets on that board: 56, A5 (which I have blockers to the 5), or maybe like A2 or A3 with A of clubs
    Last edited by Barbzz; Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:44 AM.

  • #2
    Hi Barbzz,

    I think you've played this hand really well.

    You are right you getting the right price to see the flop and I like betting immediately and fairly large. And continuing on the turn also.

    The river spot is a little trickier for me trying to think about different scenarios.

    Thinking if we bet again is their much he'll call with. So checking is and trying to get to showdown seems like an ok option, the guy is 35/0 so I assume pretty passive postflop also.

    When he bets it can feel like he's doing this because we showed weakness by not betting. If we assume the guy is not bluffing as a 35/0 player. What hands can he have that beat us and what hands do we beat.

    Hands that beat us are fairly obvious, lots of different flush combos. Ax possibly for the straight or 66.
    Hands that we beat I think smaller sets are the majority 22,33,44. It neesd to be a hand strong enough to slow play and then bet when we indicate we don't have the flush by not betting ourselves.

    Betting 1200 into 4000 in the middle means we need smaller sets 1 time for every 3 flush/straight combos to be ahead. Probably comes down to how aggressive this guys is post flop.

    I don't think we are quite there. I think folding here and conserving a few chips is probably better than calling in a hopefully EV neutral situation.

    Interesting spot Barbzz.

    Did you fold?


    Quad Bracelet Winner


    • #3
      Hey Andy Thanks for the analysis. 66 is somehow a hand I didnt think of, and highly likely for the line he took for a passive player (he showed down 55 in a pot with his preflop open limp, so 66 would be an open limp too). I know that calling in this sort of river spot is definitely a leak I have, exactly like you said I showed weakness on the river making it a pretty good bluff spot (although most of the draws are ahead of me now anyway) and I dont usually believe them, and yet they seem to show up with it most of the time; however I did fold this time I think it was that a passive guy bet half of his stack, rarely are the passive guys doing this as a bluff Thanks a lot umbup:



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