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Forget the result should i have called here ?

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  • Forget the result should i have called here ?

    It was a 10FPP turbo final 6 players and im lying in 3rd Payouts 1st $79 2nd $57.50 3rd $41 4th $27.75 5th $22.75 6th $17.75 höllenhund73 had just taken a beat his stats after 44 hands # VPIP 36 PFR 25 AF 2.0 not sure how to not include the result - in the past I insta call but I did think about folding what would you do and why ?

  • #2
    **moved to more appropriate forum JWK24***
    Super-Moderator



    6 Time Bracelet Winner


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    • #3
      Hi nickthebrit9,

      Congrats on making the deep run here.

      You have posted the perfect ammount of information because this decision comes down to ICM calculation. ie is it beneficial to risk our tournament life here and try and double up.

      Short answer is no. With this many short stack at the table the opener who has us covered really has our hands tied.

      Our current equity in the tournament is about $50. Calling and losing we obviously lose $32.25 in equity and take home 6th place money. If we double through here and become chip leader we only increase our tournament equity to about $65 (remember $79 is the limit). So we only stand to gain $15 in equity by winning. So we are risking $32.25 to gain $15 so we would need to be a 68% favourite to break even here.

      Our pocket tens are just too vulnerable. Depending on the range you give this shove and the possible +ev if someone else joins the party after you. In this spot you would need QQ+ to call, even then it's a little marginal. If we feel we have a big edge we might even want to wait for KK or AA in this spot.

      This may sound tight. But the idea is to attack shorter stacks or attack pots that have been unopened.

      Thanks
      Andrew


      Quad Bracelet Winner

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      • #4
        Nice answer Andy but his high VPiP would also suggest an Ax or a lower pocket pair. I think TT would be in my bottom range for calling here and a win would set us up for a decent cash spot. I think I'm squirming in this hand, it's not an instant call but it's also not an instant fold.

        I think I would also make the call although as Andy pointed out, it's much better to be the aggressor than the caller.
        Bracelet Winner

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        • #5
          I agree with Andy on this one. I want to get the lower stacks out of the tourney first. The larger payouts are for the top 3, so I want to protect my top 3 chip stack. Yes, my 10's are the equity favorite in the hand, but I only have 61% equity vs a top 25% hand (I'm using 25 since the opp raised). If it was a lower stack that shoved, then I'd be much more likely to play the hand and overshove.. but not to a stack that is larger than me. Good luck at the tables.umbup: John (JWK24)
          Super-Moderator



          6 Time Bracelet Winner


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          • #6
            Yes, it's probably a leak of mine by calling in this spot and I've put a few of these types of bubble play hands before. It's good to see the maths to work out the ICM. I've never read up that much on ICM although I think that bubble play is a strength of mine, I'm usually the aggressor in situations like this rather than the caller.

            I did say that TT was at the very bottom of my range to call here but his high VPiP would probably sway it for me. I would think I'm either a small bit ahead as in this case, or miles ahead as against 77 which these types of players are also shoving. I would definitely call if he's done the same move a few times before - and usually run into AA
            Bracelet Winner

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            • #7
              Hi Ovalman,

              TT is definately ahead of his range. But not far enough ahead to make this call.

              We will make more money in the long run folding in this spot than calling.

              We already have enough chips to have a great shot at winning. Doubling up at this point doesn't double our equity in the tournament. The top prize is $79 if we already have $50 in equity you can see how little there is to gain by risking our tournament life here.

              If we're playing cash and we get to take the chips home, then yes we call all day. But in the structure of the tournament, chips we risk are worth more than chips we can win. Therefore we need to protect our chips from marginal situations like this one.

              Cheers
              Andy


              Quad Bracelet Winner

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              • #8
                Originally posted by ahar010 View Post
                Hi nickthebrit9, Congrats on making the deep run here. You have posted the perfect ammount of information because this decision comes down to ICM calculation. ie is it beneficial to risk our tournament life here and try and double up. Short answer is no. With this many short stack at the table the opener who has us covered really has our hands tied. Our current equity in the tournament is about $50. Calling and losing we obviously lose $32.25 in equity and take home 6th place money. If we double through here and become chip leader we only increase our tournament equity to about $65 (remember $79 is the limit). So we only stand to gain $15 in equity by winning. So we are risking $32.25 to gain $15 so we would need to be a 68% favourite to break even here. Our pocket tens are just too vulnerable. Depending on the range you give this shove and the possible +ev if someone else joins the party after you. In this spot you would need QQ+ to call, even then it's a little marginal. If we feel we have a big edge we might even want to wait for KK or AA in this spot. This may sound tight. But the idea is to attack shorter stacks or attack pots that have been unopened. Thanks Andrew
                This is my first time attempting to use multiquote so here goes and I am tryin gto not be results orientated here Thanks guys for all the feedback Thank Andy but afterwards when the guy with just over 1bb (villain2) busted and put lol I thought did Imake a mistake goign up against the big stack as I was already in the top3...but in turbos things can chaneg very quickly and I didnt want to go card dead The other reason why afterwards I thought it maybe a fold was ,and dontget me wrong, the $17.75 would increase my tiny bankroll by approximately 50% but if I had finished 3rd by a whopping 120% I read through the stickys and I wanted the best answer possible so I tried to give you guys all the relevent info (and how to use the hand replayer yet I may have forgotten something..I had seen him push allin with AK but also call allins with A2 offsuit How do you calculate 68% pleaze ? With his stats I had a feeling on average It was a coinflip yet I thought he may have been tilted from previou hand It does "seem" a tight fold however was this spot marginal or does the 68% prove for certainty my call was wrong ?
                Originally posted by Ovalman View Post
                Nice answer Andy but his high VPiP would also suggest an Ax or a lower pocket pair. I think TT would be in my bottom range for calling here and a win would set us up for a decent cash spot. I think I'm squirming in this hand, it's not an instant call but it's also not an instant fold. I think I would also make the call although as Andy pointed out, it's much better to be the aggressor than the caller.
                Ovalman this is what was in my mind although it was very late and I was tired but I thought only cost 10FPP so try for 1st and folding TT maybe a tad too tight I did squirm and had no timebank left and I changed my mind 4 or 5 times...earlier on in the tournament there was a spot where I may have folded AA I had been very aggressive I was in the chip lead with 20 left all the way to 12 left and sucked out once or twice cracking QQ
                Originally posted by JWK24 View Post
                I agree with Andy on this one. I want to get the lower stacks out of the tourney first. The larger payouts are for the top 3, so I want to protect my top 3 chip stack. Yes, my 10's are the equity favorite in the hand, but I only have 61% equity vs a top 25% hand (I'm using 25 since the opp raised). If it was a lower stack that shoved, then I'd be much more likely to play the hand and overshove.. but not to a stack that is larger than me. Good luck at the tables.umbup: John (JWK24)
                Thanks John as this was my first time involved in such big payouts relative to my bankroll I thought it might be a good hand to post and hopefully to learn from @Ovalman I think it because rather than looking at cEV I needed to look @ $EV and if TT had held I felt pretty sure I would finish in the top 2 he could have had 99 or JJ Thanks and goodluck Nick ps there were nearly 2500 players so as I final tabled I wanted to knwo if i made a huge mistake
                Last edited by nickthebrit9; Mon Sep 10, 2012, 01:49 AM.

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                • #9
                  Thanks Andy

                  As I've said I've never studied ICM but I think I've a decent comprehension of it's logic. I don't know whether I should study it as any time I learn something totally new puts me on tilt.

                  I do understand your maths however which begs me the question, can you work out ICM in running or was the maths you worked out on paper after you seen this played out?

                  I can work out odds and probably run it through my own ICM mind which would sway me to call but would you make the same decision given the timebank in question?

                  I played live in Dublin 4 weeks ago and the guy could work out the odds to an exact percentage after a chip count - something I could never do.
                  Bracelet Winner

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                  • #10
                    I posted my thought Nick after you had made your post.

                    No time to respond now but you can assume my post came before yours.
                    Bracelet Winner

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by nickthebrit9 View Post
                      How do you calculate 68% pleaze ?
                      The 68% breakeven point comes from a spreadsheet I created to calculate ICM spots.

                      But basically once we work out our current $EV and the $EV if we win. We know we are risking $32.25 to win $15

                      The break-even point is
                      $32.25 / ($32.25 + $15) = 68%

                      eg If we are risking $5 to win $5 then we need $5 / ($5 + $5) = 50%

                      Originally posted by Ovalman View Post
                      I do understand your maths however which begs me the question, can you work out ICM in running or was the maths you worked out on paper after you seen this played out?
                      ICM can't be calculated exactly on the fly because there are too many variables. Stack sizes of everyone is important so it changes after each hand. People learn ICM spots basically through repitition to get a "gut feel". The thing that would be ringing alarm bells in this spot is the 2 micro stacks.

                      You could calculate a rough ICM number here, you'd estimate your current $EV and the $EV if you win and lose the hand.
                      Losing the hand is easy. Current $EV i would guess and halfway between 2nd & 3rd place money given we are top 3 stack by quite a margin and stacks are fairly even. Winning $EV i would put halfway between 2nd & 1st.

                      This would be pretty intense to calculate in the heat of the moment without a big timebank.

                      But I would definately know I don't want to be in a coin flip here.


                      Another thing to note here is 68% would be breakeven. ie we don't win any money calling with a 68% edge, we make the same profit/loss as if we just folded. But one route obviously has aot more variance


                      Quad Bracelet Winner

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                      • #12
                        Thanks for the % explanation

                        Now I am wondering if a very loose aggressive player had gone allin which hands you would call with ?

                        Also in the heat of the battle would you have managed to find a fold ?

                        best wishes

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