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Implied odds in practice

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  • Implied odds in practice

    Hi guys,

    I recently watched Dave's (TheLangolier) training video on odds ( and in this hand I successfully put it into practice.

    So was the Hubble's Freeroll:

    Let me start with some self-criticism: perhaps I should have folded that hand preflop at this blind level and position, and more so when the short stack (Player 8) min-bet. After I called the raise I thought "He might have AAs there and is trying not to chase people away with a shove". Anyway when the flop came and he did not c-bet I was relieved but still cautious.

    Now on the turn I make a set but then that brought 4 diamonds on the board , so I decide to check and the villain (Player 5) who had just joined the table led out - pretty convenient since he was in position and no one had acted before him. At this point I started doing the calculations:

    I had 10 outs (3 Ks, 3 8s, 3 As and 1 6) giving me about 20% hand equity. The pot was offering me about 24% (9000 into a pot of 37600), so I was getting -EV. But then I thought if I do hit my outs I might just be able to get all of his chips (especially if he held Qd), so with the implied odds I was getting about 11% (9000 into a 'prospective' pot of 83600) which was a +EV. So I called and then....BOOM....I hit!....and the rest is history.

    I was happy after that hand..., although after I settled down I thought that was a risky play because he could have also just made Kings full on the river - or am I just overthinking things? ...anyway let me know what you think about the hand in general.

    Bracelet Winner

  • #2
    Hi RFlush,

    Your application of the odds is good, I don't mind check-calling 9K on the turn there. It is generally one of two things happening... either he is betting with a diamond in which case we may well get paid off if the board pairs, or he is just stabbing without a diamond, in which case we won't get paid off when we fill BUT he will fear our turn call means we have a diamond and will often check down the river for us. So we will have a decent chance to drag the pot when we're good and don't fill if he doesn't have the flush.

    That being said, I'm not generally a big open limping small pairs preflop here. However it may be an ok adjustment in this type of event. I have no experience with the Hubble freeroll but from what I've heard on the forum here the play is atrocious. And I notice there's a bunch of limps behind you. If the field is super loose-passive, open limping might be an ok adjustment with 66 in EP on a 25bb stack. Open limping is just against my nature.


    Edit: It's possible he's made a bigger full house but I think remote enough that we shouldn't worry too much about it. Mostly I expect him to show up with a flush at best here.
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