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$1 45 man SnG - ATo in BB, 3-bet AI?

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  • $1 45 man SnG - ATo in BB, 3-bet AI?

    We're down to the last 6 at the final table. Villain (krava232) is 30.4/17.6/1.5 over 102 hands and I doubled him up in the last hand when I called his AI with A9o and he showed up with AA. My own stats here are 21.6/18.6/4.1 over the same number of hands. Should I be 3-betting AI here with a 35BB stack? Looking back, I'm not too keen on it now though its probably a standard push with < 20BB against this villain.

  • #2
    Hi hellsgate10! Since this is a 45-man and I'm at the FT and there are only 6 left... I'm already ITM. My goals now are to find a way to get into the top 3, then to win. As the chip leader, I want to preserve this and to keep building my stack. With ATo in the blind here, I get raised to 750 by the 3rd largest stack in the tourney. Being out of position, I don't want to flat the opp here and have to play the rest of the hand OOP, especially when I could easily be outkicked, so I need to see if I want to raise or fold. If I raise, then I would make a standard 3-bet here (to 3X the opps bet or 2250). I'm too deep to shove and don't want to double this opp up. If so, then I would go from being the chip leader to 3rd chip stack and be close to being out of the top 3. I then go to pokerstove to see how my hand will play against the opps range. When I put in 17.6% for their range (their PFR stat), I see that my ATo is a 49.1% to 50.9% underdog, so I'm going to lose slightly more often than I'll win. Due to this... I'm folding to the opp's raise here. I do not want to risk my chip lead and possibly dropping out of the top 3 on a hand that I expect to lose more than win. I'll wait until I get a situation where I can play the hand IN position or for when I have a stronger hand. Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.umbup: John (JWK24)

    6 Time Bracelet Winner


    • #3
      Thanks JWK24. I hadn't considered a standard 3-bet in this situation



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