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Any Ideas?

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  • Any Ideas?

    I playing a £10 charity game at the local pub. 40 player tournament (including many who don't play poker often) and we are down to 24 and 3 tables. 1st prize is a tournament ticket, with some minor cash for the top 5 places.

    We have played a round at the new table.

    The villain in question has played 6 of these hands, raising pre-flop once, otherwise limping. On the flop he has bet big twice (pot-sized) or folded. When he bet big, both times he showed 1 card - top pair on the flop.

    Blinds are 200/400 ante of 50.

    The villain (14k+ stack) limps from UTG+2. Action folds to me in the D with AQ off. I'm fairly happy i'm ahead, so raise to 1500 (total stack before hand 6300), with the likely plan of shoving the flop. BB folds and the villain calls.

    Flop is 10, 6, 3 rainbow.

    Villain bets very small (800) into the pot. I snap shove over the top for just over 4500. He thinks for roughly 20s, sighs and then calls.

    My read is as follows:
    - The villain has been relatively active so far, yet has been warned twice about string betting and acts as though he has never played before, yet he managed to explain implied odds to his friend...
    - I was warned about him before I entered the table as his etiquette was absent at best

    - 33, 66 may have been possible, but he would have likely instantly called / may have raised pre-flop, and I couldn't see him leading out with trips
    - I'm certain he would have raised A-10 pre-flop
    - J-10 / Q-10 suited may have called pre-flop OOP, but I had been conservative on the previous round of hands, so my image on the new table was quite tight
    - He is unlikely to have A3 / A6 - likely to fold pre-flop
    - His small bet led me to believe he was not very strong (bet big with a made hand earlier)
    - He could be holding a small pair (22 / 44 / 55), but a fold on the flop is possible after I had showed strength pre-flop.
    - I actually shoved thinking I was probably ahead at least 50% of the time and had some decent fold equity. He could have many Ax hands, a scattering of small pairs, or two pictures.

    Any thoughts / reads would be appreciated, and I will reveal the outcome in a day or two so I don't bias the advice!



  • #2
    Hi jamesthefish! Thanks for not posting results. Also, I really like the info you're providing on the villain; it really does help the evaluation when people post as much as possible about the people involved in the hand. One piece of info I'm missing is the number of hands you've played total; you mention the villain has played six, but that could be tight or loose depending on how long the game has been so far.

    I think that your play is fine, although I would have approached the hand differently because I think that your play does have one big hole in it. Here's the problem I see:

    You're opening large preflop, with the intent to shove the flop. The problem is that you're still going to have too much money behind to make a profitable shove on most flops. Betting t4650 into t3600 allows your opponent to get away from the hand making as few mistakes as possible. By overbetting the pot, you're screaming that you have a hand, and if the guy didn't flop anything, he can make the easy fold. If he did flop something, then there's a good chance you just threw away your stack.

    The good thing about shoving the flop is that you're semibluffing two live cards. You'll usually be against one lower pair if you are called. Often if an ace or queen comes on the turn or river, you'll be saved. And there is a chance that it won't come to that, because the guy could fold.

    [Edited] -> I re-posted my preferred action below.
    Last edited by PanickyPoker; Tue Mar 06, 2012, 04:47 AM.


    • #3
      Hi James! This type of tourney sounds like many of the smaller daily casino tournies I've played. Also, thanks for not putting in the conclusion, as that does help with the conversations about the hands, as everyone won't be results oriented. What is your standard raise for this level? One thing that I try to do is to keep all my raises the same sizes. This way I can conceal my hand, as I'll make the same raise with AA, 44, AQ, 89s, etc. It helps to keep the opp guessing as to what hand I have. At this level, my standard is to raise to 2.5BB+1BB for each limper, so I would raise to 3.5BB or 1300. With 4k in the pot, the opp leads a 10 6 2 rainbow flop for 800. This is a very small bet in comparison to the size of the pot. With the opp limp/calling preflop, then making a small lead, I would be ranging them as a small/mid pair, or a speculative hand preflop (ex: JTs or 9Ts, etc). If I shove here, I have two overcards (hopefully both live), so, even if I'm behind a pair, I have two draws at 6 outs (24% equity). When I shove and the opp calls, I have to put 4500 into a pot that will be 13k (34.6%). The question now, is, will the opp fold to a shove? If the opp will fold some made hands, then this can be a +EV play. If the opp will call everything, then I have to put more into the pot than the equity in my hand, so I would expect to lose 10% on average. The next thing to look at is... was my preflop bet larger than normal? If so, then the opp could put me on a hand like what I have (two overcards) and be more likely to call with any pair, which I would not want to have happen. Next, with a 4k pot, a typical value bet would be about 1/2 pot, or 2k. This is just under 1/2 my remaining stack and due to this, if I bet, I do like the shove, as I'm already pot committed. With the way that the opp tanks before calling, I would expect the opp to show up here with a pair (JT, 9T, 67s for example) with an outside chance of them having a set (but a set shouldn't need to think about calling, unless they're putting on an act, as it's an easy call if they have it). With 15BB at the start and AQ, depending on my read of the opp, I could ship the 15BB preflop with AQ, or do a stop and go, where I std raise, then shove any flop. I would normally tend to ship it preflop here, but depending on the opp, could raise pre/shove the flop too. Hope this helps and I look forward to seeing what happened. Good luck at the tables.umbup: John (JWK24)

      6 Time Bracelet Winner


      • #4
        I missed a few things when I read the first post. There's a t50 ante, and the guy limped; he wasn't in a blind.

        That actually makes this a pretty clear preflop shove for me. With antes, the blinds are something like t333/t667 after adjustment, which gives you under ten big blinds. Especially after someone limps UTG, I would shove here, fully expecting the guy to call with at least KQs and ATo, or just fold so I can pick up a nice big pot.


        • #5
          Ok, so to answer a few questions:

          The tables had just been reshuffled down to 3 tables of 8. I had only played 8 hands with said villain and he played 6.

          It was actually a pub tournament, but I would estimate that half of the field played regularly at a casino, so the standard was pretty decent.

          My standard bet here is 3x, although my new table do not necessarily know that, hence the 1500 raise. I see why you would keep this constant, but I do sometimes deviate from this if my last few hands against a certain player have followed the same trend.

          I did think about shoving pre-flop, but 6300 seemed like a large shove to me. I did mistakenly not include the antes in my calculation though - is there any easy rule of thumb to determine how many effective BB stack I have when an ante is present?



          • #6
            If you take t10/t20 blinds and treat them like regular dead money, they would be just a plain t30. The small blind is effectively one third of the dead money, and the big blind is basically just two-thirds of the dead money. Whenever there are antes in play, I just take the blinds and antes, add them up, and figure out what two thirds of that is. That's the adjusted big blind.

            So here, if the table has eight people, t200 + t400 + (t50 * 8) = t1000. t1000 * 2/3 = t667

            It's actually a really useful trick to help your preflop mindframe if you can do the math in your head easily. It seems weird to shove over 6,000 chips with a big blind of only 400 chips, but it's definitely +EV to shove AQ preflop in that spot, even if the guy would fold everything worse than AQ. Against a guy who apparently doesn't fold preflop, it should be way good to shove (although not necessarily the best play 100% of the time).


            • #7

              I'm with Panicky, I would just shove pre with 15bb's over a super loose limper and antes involved here.

              I would not shove the flop personally, when he bets small and not large he probably doesn't have top pair (as you observed he bets large and showed top pair both times), but he's got some 1 pair hand below the ten. And this guy is a loose, very weak player, I wouldn't bank my tourney life on moving him off a pair... we're basically charging ourselves the maximum to draw to our overcards as fold equity is very low. I think the arguments that our line looks very strong so we have FE against smaller pairs is optimistic... yes our line shoving the flop looks strong but this guy's not listening. It's only 6 hands of data but he's played them all, and played poorly post flop too, so I'm not optimistic we can move him off anything here. I hope we caught him doing this with 54 or a gut shot so we are at least a small fav. He thought for 20s (which is probably long for him) and called anyway with a sigh. i.e. he apparently does think our action represents a premium pair, but that still didn't cause him to find his inner fold button.

              Moral of the story is, we don't get our edge off of super loose weak players by trying to make them fold hands... we get it by making a better hand and charging them through the nose for not being able to fold.
              Head Live Trainer
              Check out my Videos

              4 Time Bracelet Winner


              • #8
                Thanks for the advice guys.

                Taking into account the ante is something I can now start doing more often and would change my outcome here. I realise I should have shoved pre-flop and been happy to collect around 1400 chips.

                The villain showed 5-10 off, giving him top pair on the flop, and I didn't hit. No idea why he called the pre-flop raise still, but he would surely have folded to a shove.

                Cheers again,




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