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55 on the bubble

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  • 55 on the bubble

    9 man SnG. So far, 2zola hasn't done a whole lot, so he probably isn't shoving with complete air, I put him on a decent sized ace. Ours, dunno, he's made good plays and bad so far. What would you do here. When 2zola shoved I decided to call him off in a heartbeat. I'm the big stack, and if I lose I can afford it. If I win, we're in the money. The Ours shoves behind. Now what.... -------------------------------- keeping track of my poker semi-career: ov3rsight.blog.com
    The Road to Fame and Fortune - Keeping track of my poker semi-career
    Keep up to date: @Ov3rsight



  • #2
    I would easily fold here.

    When the SB rejams and the BB overjams, a side-pot is created. The main pot would have t2391 in it if you were to call; the side-pot would have t5006, making it more relevant to your stack, so that's the one we should be more inclined to base our decision on. Here's how I do the math in my head:

    After you put in t547 to call the SB, you need to put in another t2503 to call the BB. You're getting almost 4.4-to-1 for the main pot call, which makes that look like a snap-call. But look at the odds you're getting on the side-pot call. There is t2503 in there now, and you need t2503 to call. That's even money. There is no overlay. The blinds and your open raise all went into the main pot. So what you're faced with is 1-to-1 odds to call, so you need exactly 50% equity or more to make it. What's worse, you're playing an STT (on the bubble, no less), in which you generally need even better than 50% equity call all-in.

    The villain would need to be shoving about 35% of hands (Ax K8+ Q8+, or something along those lines) in order for you to have 50% equity. I doubt he's jamming even half of that range. That is why I'd fold.

    That's a somewhat simplistic way of thinking about this kind of scenario, and it loses merit if the side-pot isn't all that big compared to the main pot. It's a rough guide, but the basic answer is fold because you're a heavy dog to the BB's range imo.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by PanickyPoker View Post
      I would easily fold here.

      When the SB rejams and the BB overjams, a side-pot is created. The main pot would have t2391 in it if you were to call; the side-pot would have t5006, making it more relevant to your stack, so that's the one we should be more inclined to base our decision on. Here's how I do the math in my head:

      After you put in t547 to call the SB, you need to put in another t2503 to call the BB. You're getting almost 4.4-to-1 for the main pot call, which makes that look like a snap-call. But look at the odds you're getting on the side-pot call. There is t2503 in there now, and you need t2503 to call. That's even money. There is no overlay. The blinds and your open raise all went into the main pot. So what you're faced with is 1-to-1 odds to call, so you need exactly 50% equity or more to make it. What's worse, you're playing an STT (on the bubble, no less), in which you generally need even better than 50% equity call all-in.

      The villain would need to be shoving about 35% of hands (Ax K8+ Q8+, or something along those lines) in order for you to have 50% equity. I doubt he's jamming even half of that range. That is why I'd fold.

      That's a somewhat simplistic way of thinking about this kind of scenario, and it loses merit if the side-pot isn't all that big compared to the main pot. It's a rough guide, but the basic answer is fold because you're a heavy dog to the BB's range imo.

      I agree, easy fold.

      In an SNG you do not want to court big losses short of ITM as readily as you might in an MTT, simply because there are only 3 pay spots; you do not "need" a huge stack to move up the pay ladder to make a significant pay day.

      Worst case scenario here is you call and lose the side pot to the shortie and the main pot to the 3200 stack, and you are left a short stack still in the bubble. As folding would still leave you a bigger stack (and itm if the shortie busts), taking 55 against a shove by 3200 just is not a worthy risk in my opinion.

      Let it go, see what shakes out, and preserve your chips for the battles to come once you are ITM.

      Hope it helps.

      -JDean
      Double Bracelet Winner

      Comment


      • #4
        See what shakes out

        2zola flipped over AJ (decent sized ace as I expected), Ours flipped over KQ off. Neither got any help, so I would have won at the end. Personally, I think the reshove with the KQ isn\'t the smartest thing he did. Bubble play lasted another 43 hands after this....

        2zola still went out on the bubble, I ended up heads up with Ours and didn't have too much trouble getting his chips.
        The Road to Fame and Fortune - Keeping track of my poker semi-career
        Keep up to date: @Ov3rsight


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