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  • should i call

    We are on the point bubble of a home league game. Whats the correct play here? Villian bets 1404 Grade b
    I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

    13 Time Bracelet Winner



  • #2
    correct play for who?SS shoves 2 more to act and your BB and big stack.if either call or shove and you go away .If they don t i think you still fold because nearly half the deck beats you as is. do you really want to double him up at this stage? just my thoughts i been wrong before. gl y all by the way i like your teaching styleumbup:
    6 Time Bracelet Winner


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    • #3
      You should tighten on the bubble, not loosen to knock a player out. By playing tight, you lock up the chips so the short stack can't easily double up. You want to make it hard for him to get it in with the best hand. I'd say your hand is actually lower than the bottom of a decent villain's shoving range here, although table dynamics could easily change that. Medium unsuited connectors run pretty poorly in spots like this imo, because the bulk of the villain's range (two overcards) is beating you 2-to-1. And even if his range is wide enough to include lower cards, he'll be dominating you before he loses to you (AK, AQ is bad; A9, A8 is actually worse, only A7-A2, etc. is good for you). I don't think you should call.

      Also, if ori is shoving ATC here, you're still behind. Not by much, but it's something to think about.

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      • #4
        Hi Grade b,

        This is an easy fold imo. I know ori shoves wide, but you are calling ~ 1250 into a pot of 1730 so you need ~ 42% equity to break even. He has to be shoving over 2/3rds of starting hands just for you to get to this point (and even if he's shoving a lot wider you still only have a thin equity edge).

        Additionally, if this point bubble is significant to your opponents, then you don't want to bust ori yet, as the chip leader it's ok for you to have him around on life support on the point bubble to increase fold equity vs. the other players, none of whom will want to risk bubbling points vs. you while there's a really short stack present.

        Even without the bubble consideration however, I think this is a pretty easy fold imo.

        Dave
        Head Live Trainer
        Check out my Videos

        4 Time Bracelet Winner



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        • #5
          As big stack on the bubble, I don't think tightening up is the correct play - by all means, abuse the shorter stacks who don't want to bubble out and steal blinds and antes wherever you can. You should loosen up.

          But that doesn't mean you should start being a maniac. While I'd have no trouble at all opening up the pot in late position with the 8,9 off to do some stealing, I'm never calling a 10BB shove with it. The absolute best case scenario is something like a baby ace or a baby pair, in both cases you'll need to hit. Odds are he has a better pair, or two overcards. No need to spew chips here.

          ----------------------------------
          keeping track of my poker semi-career: ov3rsight.blog.com
          The Road to Fame and Fortune - Keeping track of my poker semi-career
          Keep up to date: @Ov3rsight


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          • #6
            Thanks for the replies so far every one,

            Note everyone folds to be here.

            Does this change the play?

            Grade b
            I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

            13 Time Bracelet Winner


            Comment


            • #7
              Hey grade b!

              Everyone folding wouldn't matter for me here either. If anyone did call, then it makes it an even easier fold, as they're going to have a real hand.

              In this situation, as a shortstack, Ori can be shoving a larger range, but IMO 89 off is a bit weak to be calling (he'd need to be shoving top 40% to just make it an even EV play). If I had Ax, Kx, or even maybe Qx then I'd be calling him here, but not with 89 off. Even though I'd have a big chip advantage, I wouldn't want to take the chance of doubling up a good player when I was an underdog in the hand.

              With a better hand, I'm calling easily... but 89 off is a bit weak for me in this situation. I'd rather be against him when I'm a favorite.

              John (JWK24)
              Super-Moderator



              6 Time Bracelet Winner


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              • #8
                Thx to wetmoose for giving me that tip about the free trial for Sit N Go Wizard ... he's been giving me helpful tips in my Cowboy's challenge thread, and he really knows his stuff!! umbup: So I downloaded it, and I plugged in your numbers grade b ... not sure I did it right, but this is what came out: That's way tight, eh? It didn't even like AJo, 77 ... granted, oriholic's shoving almost 10bb's from utg, but wouldn't you think as chip leader that AJo would be a decent call against a 14% range? Did I use the right tool?
                Last edited by TrustySam; Thu Feb 09, 2012, 06:51 AM.

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                • #9
                  You need to modify the settings to use the correct pay structure in the calculations. I have a feeling the calling range suggestion is too tight for two reasons:

                  1) This game probably has a different payout structure than a SNG, which might make this game less like a SNG and more like a MTT. That could reduce the significance of the bubble and widen the recommended calling range.

                  2) The shoving range of the CO in your simulation is 14%, and TheLangolier mentioned above that ori tends to shove wide. You can click on his Open%: 14+ button to modify his range to be a more accurate representation of what you think he's shoving.

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                  • #10
                    Oh yeah, in the absence of info, my calculations were based on an assumption that:

                    1) This was a 2-table, 18-player SNG (minus a person), with a starting chip stack of 3000
                    2) Oriholic was using the spacegravy charts for push-fold, middle position, 10bb's

                    I'm not sure why oriholic would be shoving way wider than recommended, or how a small home game would wind up more like an MTT, but I can do the calcs based on other scenarios if grade b isn't around (just for kicks) ...

                    brb ...

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                    • #11
                      I don't know how realistic it'd be to assume oriholic would be shoving with Q5o, but if you give him a 50% shoving range, the calling range is still pretty tight ... 21%:



                      That's still a lot tighter than you would expect if you think somebody's shoving possibly as bad as Q5o, wouldn't you think? like A4o isn't even good enough?
                      Last edited by TrustySam; Thu Feb 09, 2012, 07:23 AM.

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                      • #12
                        By my understanding, when you're on the bubble, the game changes a lot (at least in 9-man's) such that pot odds are much less important relative to tournament equity. The chances of winning a hand are no longer anywhere near as important as winning money, because the repurcussions of losing a pot are huge. Making a call with J4s because you have 2-to-1 and then losing the hand can result in you being the only person at the table who bought in and who doesn't cash. That's a big deal if the bubble represents a large pay jump. In a 9-man, it's a 20% pay jump, which is massive. In an MTT, it's often a 0.2% pay jump, which really isn't, ergo the importance of avoiding risk more in smaller games.

                        Anyway, in this spot, the hero has a massive stack, so losing isn't likely to put him out of the money. But making a loose call and then doubling up the short stack almost doubles the short stack's chances of cashing, which makes it more likely the hero won't cash. That would be a huge deal if the hero had a similar stack size as the villain, but even on a big stack, there's still need to be a bit tighter than normal. And like mentioned earlier, big stacks can benefit from maintaining the bubble, which argues for a fold as well.

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                        • #13
                          I like the discussion here. It would be a bit better if you provided reads/history.

                          Grade B, how wide do you think ori is pushing?

                          There's no way ori is pushing any two here. And it should be pretty clear from the past few orbits.

                          Here's the history. I showed up realllllly late and was down to about 10 BBs to begin with. I folded a lot of hands. I shoved 3 or 4 times. I was caught jamming AQ into AQ, took down the blinds with another hand (88 I think), and was caught jamming A3 into Grade B's 54o (the blinds had just passed through me and I was down to about 4 BBs).

                          That last hand is key. I know Grade B is calling me super wide and that I have close to zero fold equity. So how wide can I really be shoving? Over 3 or 4 orbits I only shoved 3 or 4 times, so it is extremely unlikely for me to be pushing super wide. I'm probably pushing somewhere around 20% or less. A range like [22+ A2+ K5s+ K8o+ Q8s+ Q9o+ J9s+ JTo T9s] is a pretty reasonable wide estimate. Since I'm expecting to get called 100% of the time I'm going to be shoving relatively tight and for value. I actually think I was shoving quite a bit tighter, but let's assume I was really wide.

                          Against that range you should be calling really pretty tight. Something like 11%. [22+ A4s+ A7o+ K9s+ KJo+ QTs JTs].

                          Clearly 98o is a bad call. But how bad? Well, you're about 35% against my range. So 65% of the time you lose about 1250 and 35% you win 1730. (.65)(-1250)+(.35)(1730)=-207, or about -1.4 BBs.

                          If you want to call it spending 1.4 BBs on advertising since you have 100 of them, okay. This may cause other people to tighten their shoving ranges against you. Also if we consider that there was a bounty in play, that can push this from a snap fold to a close call/fold.

                          Although what's probably of prime importance is not the payout, not the bounty, but the league points. I'm not sure how they work, but we could probably work out some numbers for it.

                          Originally posted by Grade b
                          Note everyone folds to be here.

                          Does this change the play?
                          Actually, here's where it gets interesting. Since everyone folds to you this is an easy fold. But, what if someone had called? You now have three options instead of two. You can fold, you can call, and you can raise! If you call you are going to have to play a dry sidepot with a crummy hand and pretty poor implied odds, so that option sucks. If someone calls then by the time it gets to you you'll be getting much better than 2 to 1 on a call. This is not good enough for your hand three ways. But consider raising! If you raise and the other guy folds you get the pot heads up against my fairly wide range with lots of dead money. Often I'll triple up to what's still a pretty small stack, and a decent amount of the time you'll win the pot. The other guy should be extremely unlikely to call your shove since he's waiting for my micro-stack to busto on the bubble. If he folds often enough you can be getting a good price to take your 98o against my range. Cool huh?
                          4 Time Bracelet Winner


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                          • #14
                            Love shoving under those conditions. Hate showing.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by TrustySam View Post
                              Oh yeah, in the absence of info, my calculations were based on an assumption that:

                              1) This was a 2-table, 18-player SNG (minus a person), with a starting chip stack of 3000
                              2) Oriholic was using the spacegravy charts for push-fold, middle position, 10bb's

                              I'm not sure why oriholic would be shoving way wider than recommended, or how a small home game would wind up more like an MTT
                              It was a 14-man MTT. Payout is 50/30/20. I'm not sure how the points pay.

                              I actually was shoving pretty tight, due to the table dynamics. Readless, Grayson's charts are surely excellent, but I had a read that Grade b was calling me super wide. Due to that I was forced to tighten up my shove range. Against someone who folds way too much, I would certainly open up my shove range quite a bit.
                              4 Time Bracelet Winner


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