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AKs @ BB vs SB 53 ?

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  • AKs @ BB vs SB 53 ?

    58th hand , i had only played 5 hands ,very tight and no cards suitable to play on I am very new player ,did i made preflop mistake here ? thanks in advance umbup:

  • #2
    if ur gonna be jamming a 557 flop with AK, u'd have been better off just jamming preflop. without any reads on the opponent, the minbet to me looks like he caught a piece of the flop. if u wanted to continue ur conservative play, u should have just flat-called the flop and saw what comes off on the turn. im sure ur expecting AK to be ahead on this flop, but ur opp is only calling if he has u beat, so u lose some equity in that sense. it really depends on ur read of the opp., but imo i would have either shoved preflop or folded to his minbet.

    Comment


    • #3
      He shows weakness by limping, so bet out. Now a 3.5x bet or a shove is the question. You have 1 BB invested already, with another 13 behind, not a lot. I think I'll agree with ketchup here, but not for his reason. If I'm playing the hand with only 13 BB left, I'm shoving. AK suited is way ahead of his range I would imagine, and even if it's not, we have two overcards, with straight and flush options.
      The 3x raise leaves me with 10 BB, and with almost 30% of your stack in the pot, do you really want to fold on the flop or turn or river if he bets?
      And what if you miss the flop, will you lead out, or show weakness yourself by checking it back to him, assuming he checks.
      Shoving also has the added equity of the other guy folding preflop and never seeing a flop, so never putting yourself in the4 situation where you might have a difficult decision. Stacksize-wise, he might even be flatting your preflop 3x bet with a Kx or Qx or small pair, all hands with could possibly fold to a shove since you do have a big enough stack to hurt him. If he calls and sees a flop, he has 3x 6 chances to outdraw your AK.
      Summary: if you play the hand with your stacksize, shove it. don't mind playing for my whole stack here, the odds are in my favor unless he has AA or KK.

      Once the flop hits, we're up sh*t creek as they say. While unlikely he holds a 5 or a 7 (unless he has a pair of them), what do you do now. He leads out for 1/4 pot. A small bet (not a minbet as the minbet is 1 BB = 600), but now what. We missed about as bad as it gets. We have a backdoor straight and backdoor flush draw at best, so in all reality we're drawing to an A or K. 6 outs for about 25%, maybe 30% if you add the backdoor draws. This does give us proper pot odds for making the call, but imho a call is out of the question, since that would leave us with less than 9 BBs.
      So we can fold or shove. Folding is bad, since we don't have the stack to raise-fold, and it also broadcasts the fact that we have a lone ace. As for a shove, what do we want to achieve? If he has a 5, he's calling. If he has the flushdraw or straight draw, he's getting 42% potodds on a 32% (straight draw but unlikely) or 36% (flush draw) chance to hit. He can also hit his overcards to the board, so he's definitely getting the right price to call your shove. If he has any overpair to the board, he's also calling. What can he fold here? Kx. So it's unlikely he will call you with a worse hand. As such, I'd choose the lesser of two eveils and muck my hand. AK is great preflop, but postflop it is only a bluff catcher.

      Factors that could change the play:
      what is the buyin (relates to how good he is, aka: the odds he is bluffing his donkbet)
      how far are we from the money (he could try to bully a short stack close to the bubble)

      hope this helps

      -----------------------------------------------------
      keeping track of my poker semi-career: ov3rsight.blog.com
      Last edited by Ov3rsight; Tue Jan 24, 2012, 10:40 PM.
      The Road to Fame and Fortune - Keeping track of my poker semi-career
      Keep up to date: @Ov3rsight


      Comment


      • #4
        thank you

        thank you for fast reply ,i have a question left ,is the play my opponent made right ?
        trying to get his position i cant play like that ATC , i just wonder is it a good play from SB
        he completed his 1/2 blind and then he paid 10% of his stack to play 35offsuit ??

        Thanks in advance ,Elias.C.

        Buy-in is 10cents @ 360men S&G
        Opponent ranked Q at shark with good results in such small stakes
        54 players left when this hand played
        Bubble was at 36 -- i had enough chips to survive and pass , Thanks u ALL

        ><
        Last edited by biodomeGr; Tue Jan 24, 2012, 10:35 PM. Reason: Add some info

        Comment


        • #5
          Let's play from his P.O.V. then

          The answer is simple. No

          First - it's folded to him. You have a baby suited-connector. So I wouldn't mind a raise here to steal your blind. But what is his gameplan with the 3,5 suited?
          * Flop a flush? Odds are 1 in 119 (0.8 %)
          * Flop a set? Odds are 1 in 72 (1.4%)
          * Flop 2 pair? Odds are 1 in 23 (4.3%)

          So basically he's gonna hit something with decent showdown value 6.5% of the time. Flatcalling to do just that is definitely not profitable.

          He could be floating - knowing he can't win, but thinking he can steal it if you check it and the flop comes complete rags or with scare cards as it did. That might be a plan, but he'd have to have a read on you to pull that off. And again: here also the buyin counts, since most micro-stakes players won't have this play in their arsenal.

          But then you raise. So you have something, so the float doesn';t have a lot of chance to work anymore. He's basically drawing to hit something big once in 15 hands. Considering the price he has to pay to see a flop, I would classify his call as bad. You are short stacked, so there is a chance he can get you off an AK, AQ type hand if the flop falls in his favor, but still... I stick with my original assessment: he should have mucked or raised preflop, not limp and then flat to your bet. At best, he has the two live cards, and he can hit a pair on the flop to have the best hand. But how happy will you be with a pair of 3s or 5s with 2 overcards ??

          Once the flop hits it's a done deal of course, the set is far above anything you can have.


          --------------------------------------------------------
          keeping track of my poker semi-career: ov3rsight.blog.com
          The Road to Fame and Fortune - Keeping track of my poker semi-career
          Keep up to date: @Ov3rsight


          Comment


          • #6
            Oeps, forgot something.

            The 10 cent buyin pretty much makes me think you can forget about the float play. Good chance he doesn't know what that is. The problem is there is a good chance he's never looked at odds either, and he did call your preflop bet in order to hit the flush. If he did, he's the kind of player I wanna stay away from unless I have a made hand.

            Had he played many hands up until now? As in - did he call a lot to see flops and then hit, or is he throwing away most of the hands. That's where a HUD helps, it keeps track of stuff like that.

            When we're 18 from the money, a lot can happen. I doubt you'd be able to fold your way to a mincash for instance. Also - that's not what you want. To make some money, you need to at least make the final table for a payout of 60 cents. As with all bigger tourneys, the big cashes are in the top 3 (or top 4 in this case, paying > $2). Folding your way here to mincash might get you a mincash, but no more than that. And that is if you survive long enough to even make the mincash. After all - with blinds and antes where they are, you'll be putting 20% of your stack into the pot every single orbit. With the 13BB stack, you still have fold equity against the bigger stacks. If you let another 2 orbits pass, you'll get to a point where they're going to be calling you with just about anything. And the blinds and antes aren;t going to stay where they are, so a fold-to-cash strategy might not work. To give a rough estimate, you'd need to know what the average stack will be when the bubble bursts (here: 15k). unless you are well over that, I wouldn't count on being able to fold my way into the mincash.

            --------------------------------------------------------
            keeping track of my poker semi-career: ov3rsight.blog.com
            The Road to Fame and Fortune - Keeping track of my poker semi-career
            Keep up to date: @Ov3rsight


            Comment


            • #7
              PFR put you in awkward spot
              Originally posted by biodomeGr View Post
              58th hand , i had only played 5 hands ,very tight and no cards suitable to play on I am very new player ,did i made preflop mistake here ? thanks in advance umbup:
              By making the raise size that you did, if you get called you're setting up an SPR (Stack to Pot Ratio) around 1. Basically, if you hit the flop you're willing to get it AI. Villain leads into you with a small bet on a paired board, besides hitting the flop, a paired board is the next friendly flop to see. Chance is less likely that the villain connected with the board. Here's where 'reads' on opponents are a 'must'! You have to consider all actions taken up to this point; plus the fact that you are going up against a large stack. At this point, your 'PFR' and the size of it put you into a rather awkward spot. If you opted to PFR the min (which also isn't your best line), it would be easier to fold. Your optimum play is to shove PF. Being that you are a new player, it might be helpful for you to 'google search' Nash Charts". The chart will give you a range for 'short stack' shoves that will make your shoves unexploitable. This is very helpful for newer players, that haven't yet acquired the skill to accurately read their opponents As played: I don't really have a good shot of making the money if I fold. Therefore, I'm shoving and crossing my fingers(the bucket is close by, and I already used it). .
              Last edited by king_spadez1; Tue Jan 24, 2012, 11:54 PM. Reason: Adding to 'As played:'
              "May the cards be with you!"

              Comment


              • #8
                Hi BiodomeGr! Tough hand. Preflop: I like seeing a raise when the SB completes. AKs is a hand with great potential and raising is what I would do. I would however raise to my std raise at this level, which is to 2.5BB or 1500, as this helps to conceal the hand that I'm playing and try to outplay the opp after the flop. With 12BB left, if I thought that I needed chips in order to get ITM in the tourney, a shove would definitely be a viable option too. (the opp here should have folded to the preflop raise with 35s, especially if the raise was coming from a player that had been playing tight) Flop: 557 with two hearts and the opp decides to lead out. Was the opp betting most of the flops for the hands that they were in? This is information that I would use to determine my course of action here. If the opp was not making bets on the flop, then I'd be putting them on a 5, hearts, 7 or pkt pair. To call their bet here, it would be 1200 chips into a pot of 7080 or 17%. If the opp already has a pair and is ahead, there are 3 aces and 3 kings that can be outs (24%), so I would call their bet and re-evaluate on the turn. If I put the opp on a 5 (A5s for example) then AK needs runner/runner to win the pot and I'd fold to their flop bet. If the opp was making a number of bets on the flop, then my range is going to be similar, but I'd be more tempted to call, as they also might have two overcards. I would not raise here, as there are way too many hands that AK is behind here. All that I have is a pair of 5's. I'd only want to raise if I knew my hand was ahead and with the action so far, there is no way to tell if I'm ahead or behind. With this being later in the tourney, where the bubble is approaching, I would not want to put all of my chips at risk without knowing that I had the best hand. I can't win a tournament, if I first don't get ITM. I would want to accumulate chips for a final table and top 3 run, but I would not want to be putting my tourney life on the line without a made hand. Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.umbup: John (JWK24)
                Super-Moderator



                6 Time Bracelet Winner


                Comment


                • #9
                  Bubble play? - not mentioned in post

                  Originally posted by JWK24 View Post
                  With this being later in the tourney, where the bubble is approaching, I would not want to put all of my chips at risk without knowing that I had the best hand. I can't win a tournament, if I first don't get ITM. I would want to accumulate chips for a final table and top 3 run, but I would not want to be putting my tourney life on the line without a made hand.
                  Bubble play wasn't mentioned in the original post. I'll check the figures for a 90 and 360 man MTT.

                  At the moment there are 82,368 chips at this table:
                  If it is a 90 man MTT: I have to assume, starting chip stack is 1500 x 90 players = 135,500 total chips in play; there are 2 active tables; between 15-17 players left; the average chip stack is between 7,940 - 9,000; with 12 players getting paid.

                  Now this becomes a very awkward spot - Hero is getting 5:1 for a 7:1 shot to hit an A or K (that will most likely but not necessarily be the best hand). Hero has to gamble 2BB for this chance from his 11BB stack, which depending on how many players are left, may be just under the average. The advantage of on-line play is that you can see how many players are left, and what their stacks are; that information will greatly 'spin' your decision.

                  If it is a 360 man MTT: I have to assume, starting chip stack is 1500 x 360 players = 540,000 total chips in play; there are 6 or 7 tables left (43-62 players left); the average chip stack is between 8,710 - 12558; with 36 players getting paid.
                  We have absolutely no reads on the Villain (with a big stack). Villain may be making this bet with hands we are ahead of, such as; an Ace high hand; or a draw (using a blocker bet). With our chip stack possibly well under the average (11BB), I feel we need to go for the pot (10BB), to get ITM. We do have some fold equity, vs. a draw and ace high hands. Maybe a 7x will fold, wanting to make the money, and thinking our PFR was a middle pair 88-TT. Even if we are up against two pair, we still have a chance of sucking out. If villain has a 'set', you tip your hat, and say, 'Nice hand sir'; then under your breath you say, 'What the hell were you doing in the pot to begin with? With a 53s? You DONKEY!!'.

                  Both scenarios above were cause by the hero's PFR size. (See last post for details)
                  .
                  "May the cards be with you!"

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by biodomeGr View Post
                    Buy-in is 10cents @ 360men S&G
                    Opponent ranked Q at shark with good results in such small stakes
                    54 players left when this hand played
                    Bubble was at 36 -- i had enough chips to survive and pass , Thanks u ALL

                    ><
                    King_spadez,

                    Here's where I got the info from, it's the 2nd post by BiodomeGr.

                    John (JWK24)
                    Super-Moderator



                    6 Time Bracelet Winner


                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Is this really a viable stack to make the money?

                      Originally posted by biodomeGr View Post
                      thank you for fast reply ,i have a question left ,is the play my opponent made right ?
                      trying to get his position i cant play like that ATC , i just wonder is it a good play from SB
                      he completed his 1/2 blind and then he paid 10% of his stack to play 35offsuit ??

                      Thanks in advance ,Elias.C.

                      Buy-in is 10cents @ 360men S&G
                      Opponent ranked Q at shark with good results in such small stakes
                      54 players left when this hand played
                      Bubble was at 36 -- i had enough chips to survive and pass , Thanks u ALL

                      ><
                      Originally posted by JWK24 View Post
                      King_spadez,

                      Here's where I got the info from, it's the 2nd post by BiodomeGr.

                      John (JWK24)
                      Good pick-up John!

                      But do you think that this is a viable stack to NIT into the money? 54 players left, with 36 making the money. By folding you have an 11BB stack vs 17BB average stack; a NITty option, but weak. By calling 2BB (and possibly folding), you will only have a 9BB stack; not a good option. By shoving, while you may still have fold equity (and for other reasons - see previous posts); a better option (IMHO).

                      It's too late in the tourney, with too little of a stack, to make the money (w/o some variance of course). Again, this all could have been avoided PF (see previous posts).
                      .
                      "May the cards be with you!"

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        King-spadez,

                        When it gets anywhere near the bubble, and I've run into this a good number of times live, I don't concern myself with what the avg stack is. I look at where I'm at in relation to the other stacks. This will happen very often in small casino tourneys too, as the blinds go up quickly, so everyone ends up on shorter stacks toward the end of a tourney.

                        If there are plenty of shorter stacks than mine is, then I won't worry about having to chip-up quickly in order to get ITM, regardless of what the average stack is. This can easily happen if there is one HUGE stack and then a bunch of others. If so, the avg stack is not going to be where the median stack is in the tourney (avg could be much higher than what the player in middle of the field has).

                        However, if the chips are evenly spread out (less common according to the tourneys that I've played in.. but definitely does happen), then there won't be many stacks shorter than mine, so I'll take every opportunity that I can to accumulate chips and get ITM and may have to take more chances.

                        If I hit a point where I'm certain that I can get ITM, then I try to be sure to get a +ROI from the tourney first, then make a move for the FT or top 3.... of course, even if playing conservatively, I'm still playing made hands to accumulate chips, but just won't take a risk without a made hand.

                        In this one, I'm not sure where the hero's stack is in relation to the other players, but if the hero says that they've got enough chips to survive the bubble, unless I have something stating otherwise, I'm going to go with it... as they were the one in the tourney.

                        John (JWK24)
                        Super-Moderator



                        6 Time Bracelet Winner


                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Excellent Post!

                          Originally posted by JWK24 View Post
                          King-spadez,

                          When it gets anywhere near the bubble, and I've run into this a good number of times live, I don't concern myself with what the avg stack is. I look at where I'm at in relation to the other stacks. This will happen very often in small casino tourneys too, as the blinds go up quickly, so everyone ends up on shorter stacks toward the end of a tourney.

                          If there are plenty of shorter stacks than mine is, then I won't worry about having to chip-up quickly in order to get ITM, regardless of what the average stack is. This can easily happen if there is one HUGE stack and then a bunch of others. If so, the avg stack is not going to be where the median stack is in the tourney (avg could be much higher than what the player in middle of the field has).

                          However, if the chips are evenly spread out (less common according to the tourneys that I've played in.. but definitely does happen), then there won't be many stacks shorter than mine, so I'll take every opportunity that I can to accumulate chips and get ITM and may have to take more chances.

                          If I hit a point where I'm certain that I can get ITM, then I try to be sure to get a +ROI from the tourney first, then make a move for the FT or top 3.... of course, even if playing conservatively, I'm still playing made hands to accumulate chips, but just won't take a risk without a made hand.

                          In this one, I'm not sure where the hero's stack is in relation to the other players, but if the hero says that they've got enough chips to survive the bubble, unless I have something stating otherwise, I'm going to go with it... as they were the one in the tourney.

                          John (JWK24)
                          Excellent post!

                          As stated in my 2nd to last post... on-line players have an advantage (over live), because they can check the status of all players in the tourney; and your post concurs with that. I've only played one MTT (3 tables) live, and had no idea what was going on at the other two tables.

                          Given this same scenario at a casino, playing on 7 tables, being short stacked, with 36 out of 54 making the money, turbo format... I wouldn't feel too confident that I had a good shot at getting ITM. Winning this pot would get me to the money, plus give me a chance of going further.

                          Again, I haven't been in this scenario live, but I would think the bubble tends to drag, further hurting our chances to get to the money with an M of 4.5, at this point of the tourney.
                          .
                          "May the cards be with you!"

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Most of the casino tournies that I've played are the smaller casino daily tournaments (been playing them for over 10 yrs now on my yearly trips to Las Vegas, plus whenever I'm on vacation somewhere that I have the time and money with me to get into one). They'll normally have between 25-80 players in them and normally pay 1 per starting table, although that can vary, as some are 1/table +1, some are 2/table.
                            The vast majority of them have the bubble at the beginning/middle of the final table, so in those cases, you roughly see how many chips the other opps have.... so while online is better, as you know the exact chip amounts, you can get a pretty good idea of where you're sitting at. In larger tournies, this is a big help online, as you will know exactly where you're at in relation to the other stacks.

                            Also, in these casino tournies near the bubble, even the larger stacks are mid/short. I've been in situations where say the top 5 cash, 7 are left.. and the chip leader only has about 8BB left in their stack.... and with the antes, it's an M below 5! The bubbles don't last nearly as long as a person would think, since the majority of players are on a 5BB or less stack. Someone's normally shoving every hand and if a player has a real hand, they're calling and one of the two is in deep trouble.

                            John (JWK24)
                            Super-Moderator



                            6 Time Bracelet Winner


                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by JWK24 View Post
                              Preflop: I like seeing a raise when the SB completes. AKs is a hand with great potential and raising is what I would do. I would however raise to my std raise at this level, which is to 2.5BB or 1500, as this helps to conceal the hand that I'm playing and try to outplay the opp after the flop.
                              Hi. I would like to ask a question. Assuming in this hand there is no ante, blind: 300/600, hero stack: 6000 (10BB), starting pot: 900 (15% of our stack). Are we still making a standard raise or push all-in?

                              In the actually hand the pot is 17.5% of our stack with ante
                              Last edited by Keldraco; Wed Jan 25, 2012, 04:31 PM.

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