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Calling a shove w/ 33

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  • Calling a shove w/ 33

    $0.50 45-man final table. This guy had shoved about 20% of his hands after the bubble burst in attempts to double up. I used the full time bank before I decided to fold. Since I've never seen what cards he shoved with, I thought that he could be holding a higher pocket pair, but at the same time, I had a great price to call if I only was able to put him on two unpaired cards. Losing a flip with those pot odds with my stack relative to his wouldn't hurt me very much. In hindsight, I think this was a good fold because I did put him on a pocket pair, but this has been antagonizing me for the last half hour or so. He shoved pretty much every hand after this one. Should I have called? If so, why? (of course, I won this tourney) ....

  • #2
    Hi Feskprins! The opp in this situation only has 3BB, so their shove range should be very wide and they should be shoving most hands. As the low stack, they've got nothing to lose by shoving to try and chip up. As the big stack at the table, preserving that is one thing that I would want to do too, but calling here would not make me lose the chip lead if I lost the hand. If the opp was shoving 50-70% of hands, then 33 is basically a coin flip. In the situation where I can take out an opp with a coin flip and not lose the chip lead if I lost the hand.... I'm taking that chance. If the opp was playing very tight, then I may pass here with 33, but with an opp shoving a very wide range, I'll take my chances. Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.umbup: John (JWK24)
    Super-Moderator



    6 Time Bracelet Winner


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    • #3
      To shove, or not to shove, that is the question! Here's the answer.

      Originally posted by Feskprins View Post
      $0.50 45-man final table.

      This guy had shoved about 20% of his hands after the bubble burst in attempts to double up. I used the full time bank before I decided to fold. Since I've never seen what cards he shoved with, I thought that he could be holding a higher pocket pair, but at the same time, I had a great price to call if I only was able to put him on two unpaired cards. Losing a flip with those pot odds with my stack relative to his wouldn't hurt me very much. In hindsight, I think this was a good fold because I did put him on a pocket pair, but this has been antagonizing me for the last half hour or so. He shoved pretty much every hand after this one.

      Should I have called? If so, why?
      You’re getting great odds for a hand that will play as a favorite against a very short stack (even if villain hadn't been shoving 20% of his hands). It’s a great investment that costs only 16% of your stack. You also need to think about the whole picture… The prize pool is weighted toward the top 3 places. If you lose, you will still be chip leader; in a game that ‘variance’ is going to take over soon, anyway.

      Reasons for calling:
      You need to invest 2740 into a pot of 6190, you’re getting 2.26:1 odds; you’re closing the betting; winning this pot will get you closer to the top 3 payouts; if you win, you will have almost double the amount of chips of the second chip leader.

      Reasons for folding:
      I don’t see any negatives; folding shouldn’t be an option.

      Go ahead and shove!
      "May the cards be with you!"

      Comment


      • #4
        Hi Feskprins! I know this looks like a spot where you're "a coinflip at best" but you really shouldn't be folding here.

        I thought that he could be holding a higher pocket pair, but at the same time, I had a great price to call if I only was able to put him on two unpaired cards.
        Here's where you make your mistake. You CAN'T put him on a hand either two overs or a bigger pair, since he's making the same move with all of the above. All you can do is put him on a range. Sure all the big pairs are in there, and so are the AKs and AQs and probably a bunch more suited aces and broadways.

        You're getting better than 2 to 1 against a 3 BB shove. And you close the action. All things being equal this is a snap call with just about any two cards. If losing this hand would really hurt your stack or chip position, or calling and winning would would burst the bubble and cause you to lose your power over the table, those might be reasons to fold, but otherwise this is an easy call with any two cards. 33 is even better than any two, so it's a very easy call.

        Let's see why. Compare the equity of your hand to his shoving range.

        Against a top 5% shoving range (TT+,ATs+,AKo,KTs+,QJs), you have about 37% equity, which is more than the 31% you need to be +EV. (you need to call 2740 to win 6190, so 2740 out of the (2740+6190=8930) pot, or 31% will be your contribution. And we're pretty sure this guy is shoving wider than 5%. Anything wider and you have even more equity of course.

        Assuming this guy is shoving 20% which is a fairly tight estimate on his stack, you can profitably call here with any pair, any two cards 4 or higher, any two suited besides 27s.

        Of course this doesn't account for ICM, so you can tighten up a little. But you should probably still be calling with almost anything.

        If I fold 33 here I'm also folding AA and KK. The only reason I'd fold is if we're on the bubble and my bubble abuse were worth more than this guy's stack.
        4 Time Bracelet Winner


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        • #5
          Makes perfect sense. Thank you for your inputs! umbup: ....

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          • #6
            congrats on your win

            everybody is calling and so am I

            because im already in the BB i got a pair already i got discount plus a made hand so it's flipping time
            even if i lose no problem still got lots of chips.

            Comment


            • #7
              Hey Fesk congrats on the win. Like all others have said we are caling this off mostly because of ICM as below. I hope that someone will be doing some ICM classes soon as it will open some eyes.
              The comments about the player are actually irrelevant here as this is purely a numbers thing and you are dominating his stack. We are actually a 55/45 dog here but we don't even need that much to make this profitable

              CO 22.8%, 44+ A2s+ A5o+ K8s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QJo
              BB 72.5%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K4o+ Q2s+ Q4o+ J2s+ J7o+ T2s+ T6o+ 92s+ 96o+ 82s+ 85o+ 73s+ 75o+ 62s+ 64o+ 52s+ 54o 42s+ 32s

              The pocket pr is the correct call but what you may not realise is the range that you should be calling. Now you can see why people are saying it is an auto call. But maybe they don't realise they need to be calling 42s too and 85o+

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by 19honu62 View Post
                Hey Fesk congrats on the win. Like all others have said we are caling this off mostly because of ICM as below. I hope that someone will be doing some ICM classes soon as it will open some eyes.
                The comments about the player are actually irrelevant here as this is purely a numbers thing and you are dominating his stack. We are actually a 55/45 dog here but we don't even need that much to make this profitable

                CO 22.8%, 44+ A2s+ A5o+ K8s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QJo
                BB 72.5%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K4o+ Q2s+ Q4o+ J2s+ J7o+ T2s+ T6o+ 92s+ 96o+ 82s+ 85o+ 73s+ 75o+ 62s+ 64o+ 52s+ 54o 42s+ 32s

                The pocket pr is the correct call but what you may not realise is the range that you should be calling. Now you can see why people are saying it is an auto call. But maybe they don't realise they need to be calling 42s too and 85o+

                I'm aware of ICM but I just never bothered to learn it. I should probably give it a chance because it would make a lot of situations easier.

                One thing that was a huge factor that I forgot to mention here was that I didn't want to give this guy a chance to double up. I could easily outplay him in almost all situations but when it comes to a shove it's either call or fold. I decided to fold and pick a better spot because he will definitely shove future hands as well (obviously). Is this mindset wrong, given the fact that (if I may say so myself) I'm pretty good at ranging my opponents which would allow me to call with hands I feel are more likely to win? ....

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