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99 in small blind...

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  • 99 in small blind...

    Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner
    .25c final table all are regular with decent ROI accept BU but still he has a TAG stats. So far it alway open raise for everyone and hijack is the most aggressive. my feeling on hijack limping this hand was he wanted to slow down a bit. I did notice that BU pause for a short while before limping in but how can i know...Is the pot big enough for this move? +EV?
    Last edited by Keldraco; Sat Jan 21, 2012, 10:45 AM.

  • #2
    Play Safe - or - Aggressive with 99 - Dynamics is the key

    Originally posted by Keldraco View Post
    .25c final table

    all are regular with decent ROI accept BU but still he has a TAG stats. So far it alway open raise for everyone and hijack is the most aggressive. my feeling on hijack limping this hand was he wanted to slow down a bit. I did notice that BU pause for a short while before limping in but how can i know...Is the pot big enough for this move? +EV?
    This looks like a 45 man MTT (67,500 total chips), and the bubble has burst. The real pay jump is at 3rd place. Not a big difference between 6th and 4th. You’re facing a family pot OOP, with a 22BB stack. At the moment you’re hovering between a 3rd and 5th place chip stack. You have one player behind you, yet to act. Another thing to consider, is that you are playing with a lot of regulars; this means that the road to the top three places is going to be a tough path. You need to make unexploitable moves.

    With 99, and a nice pot building, folding is not an option. The aggressive big stack, just limped in from UTG+1 (Kostia), followed by the rest of the players, probably for the pot odds. I feel Kostia may have a pocket pair, or a suited connector. It’s also possible that he is slow playing AA, but I would give that less of a chance, being his track record for open/raising.

    Fold:
    Not an option

    Call:
    There’s enough money in the pot, and the stacks around the table, to just call and ‘set mine’, by far the safest, and possibly the most rewarding, if you connect on the flop (7.5 to 1 shot). You ‘only’ have one player behind you to act, which is good news.

    Raise:
    Option 1: If you raise, you’ll need to raise a lot, enough so that Kostia gets out of the way. If Kostia calls, there’s a good chance others may join in for the pot odds. Playing this hand OOP with a SPR of <1, is a bad choice.
    Option 2: If you feel that Kostia is a good candidate to ‘squeeze’, then I think your only raising option is to ‘shove’. If your opponents fold to your shove, you will add almost 25% to your stack from the pot.

    Passive/Safer - Calling is safer, and if you miss the flop, you will still be in the game, with an awkward but useable stack.
    ------------------------ OR --------------------
    Aggressive/Riskier - Shoving is riskier, but you may gain 25% more chips, right now; or hopefully at worse, a coin flip.

    Personally, I may play this either way (call or shove), depending on table dynamics. Being that the table has been regularly open/raising, I feel you have a great chance to increase your stack right now, by shoving, and getting your opponents to fold. Kostia is mostly sitting on a weak hand, and has two players behind him (that I feel are also too weak to call your shove), so put the pressure on them – shove!
    .
    "May the cards be with you!"

    Comment


    • #3
      great assessement spade,
      yes pre flop folding is not an option and i also think pushing with that many in the pot was gauranteed a call especially when money places are reached and people want to win or bust.
      so also all in not and option.
      maybe a 3x or 2.5x would of been better leaving you chips back and fold equity
      i think he would of only called for the flop trying play it smart trapping as he was playing his hand
      then obvious if flop comes say ak9 or say 4A9
      you would check out of posisition
      and he would put the rest of his chips in
      but then if you miss the board
      you still have fold equity
      you still have enough to continue

      also the way the opp played it trapping style
      he might of checked the flop trying to induce a bet
      that allows you free cards
      you might indeed catch your 9
      then again take his chips

      hope this helps

      Comment


      • #4
        I'd definitely push here. There are a lot of lower pairs that could call, and most often you will be flipping at worst. TT+ would rarely limp in these situations. I'd gladly flip in this case because we want to be going for the win and a double up here increases our chances by having more chips and by increased fold equity to steal blinds and further build our stack.

        Comment


        • #5
          Hi Keldraco,

          I think shoving is very +EV here. The limpers will rarely have TT+, and are often trying to slip in and see a cheap flop with a hand they don't want to play for a big raise. You should get folds around quite often, and when you do get called you will often be up against a range that consists of smaller pocket pairs and 2 overs, obviously your equity is great vs. that range.

          Limping for half a bb to see a flop is also +EV, but you're basically set mining then as you'll rarely get to showdown I'd think when you don't flop a set. It's a more conservative move and should keep you alive when a 9 doesn't flop, but with 1500 in chips already in the middle and us playing for a top spot, I think I'm inclined to ship it.

          Dave
          Head Live Trainer
          Check out my Videos

          4 Time Bracelet Winner



          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by holdemace486 View Post
            maybe a 3x or 2.5x would of been better leaving you chips back and fold equity
            Hi ace,

            I think 2.5 or 3x is the worst option. With 3 limpers it's not enough to fold anyone out, it will only bloat the pot and we'll still be out of position in a 4-5 way pot with a holding that basically needs to flop a set to win. It would be better to just call and see if we flop our set. If we call the pot will contain 1650 and we only have 6300 behind so we don't need the pot bloated any further. If we want to raise enough to make people fold after 3 limpers we should probably be making it more like 6-7x out of position, but we only have 23 bb's to start the hand, so I think it's better to just shove and maximize fold equity than raise the lessor amount and put in 25%-30% of our stack doing it.

            Dave
            Head Live Trainer
            Check out my Videos

            4 Time Bracelet Winner



            Comment


            • #7
              Hi Keldraco! With this being a .25 cent tourney, I'm guessing it is a 45 or 90 man tourney, so that you're already ITM. With that being the case, I also like the shove here, as there are already a number of chips in the pot (25% increase in stack size if everyone folds) and in this situation I'd be looking to try to pick up chips to make a run at the top 3, then winning it. If it was a 27-man tourney, so that it would be the exact bubble, as 5 get paid in those tournies, then I'd more likely limp here and try to setmine with 99. I'd do that because I'd want to stay ahead of the low stack to be sure that they go out before me. Although, if I hit a 9 on the flop for a set, then I'd have no problem shoving the flop if I limped in preflop. Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.umbup: John (JWK24)
              Super-Moderator



              6 Time Bracelet Winner


              Comment

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