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Any Equity on The Bubble

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  • Any Equity on The Bubble

    This is the final table of a 0.25c 45 man Sit n Go. Opponent is a good tight player with a Vpip of approx 21%

    This hand came about a few hours after a training session with Chris 19honu62 where we ran some ICM calculations of similar situations.

    Should I fold this or shove?


    [replay hand_id=195912 type=ps title_id=2 showControls=1 themePath=table_PS_560x386.jpg lang=en gameEntity=0 hash=8871B148D4]

  • #2
    Well a min raise utg, shows a strong hand, so i wld fold KQ there. Even if you low there with chips, i wld wait and maybe push next hand with any 2 if folded to you
    Last edited by RaBBiiTGiiRL; Fri Jan 13, 2012, 02:04 PM.


    • #3
      Hey Raiser!

      Was the min bet their standard raise? That would play into my answer, as if it's not, a min bet normally means that the opp has a monster.

      With the opp raising to 1600 and only having 3862 chips, if I'm playing the hand, I'm shoving and since it's only another 2600 or so for the opp to call, considering that even if they lost the hand, they'll still have the chip lead, I would assume that I had zero fold equity and that the opp would call every single time.
      Since I'd have to play the hand, I'd be behind any pair or any ace. If the opp was playing a small number of hands, which they were, then pairs or aces make up the large majority of the range that the opp was playing and therefore, I'd be behind. Since it's the exact bubble, I'd only want to get my chips into a situation where I thought I was ahead, not one that I thought I'd be behind... and due to that, I'm mucking here.
      I've got 7 hands before I'd see the BB again and would hope within that time frame, I can find a hand to shove with, where I thought I was ahead, or that someone else shoves and gets KO'd... to get me ITM. The 2nd low stack is also on your right, so they're going to feel some pressure to shove too, as they'll hit the blinds before you do and could blind out before you due to it.

      Others may play it different, but I'd muck here and try to find a better spot.

      Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

      John (JWK24)

      6 Time Bracelet Winner


      • #4
        Thank you both for the feedback.

        I'm behind all right, but marginally so. Pokerstove is coming up with 51.2% equity for the villain and 48.8% approx for myself.

        With my stack so short is the risk of letting another set of blinds go through me better than the risk of taking the flip in this spot?

        Bear in mind a double-up here would put me right in the frame and I'm not after a min-cash.

        Just wondering people's thoughts.



        • #5

          If I had an ace here, then I'm definitely shoving. KQs, I'd probably shove against this opp, because I'd want the extra equity for the possible flush.
          But since the opp's range is tighter, if I put KQ vs a range of any pair, suited A or broadway ace, into pokerstove, I'm only at 38% with KQ off. If it's after the bubble, I'd shove KQo too.

          I'd definitely want to get a double-up to make a run at top 3 and then winning it, but I'd hope for a better situation (Ax or better).

          John (JWK24)

          6 Time Bracelet Winner


          • #6
            I am waiting too, not because of the min cash, but because the big stack raised and he min raised out of position. He is not going to fold to your raise because with under 5 big blinds you have no fold equity and if he has an Ace and hits one you are more than likely toast.

            The real question is how you got into the position of under 5 BB, the videos/trainings I have seen with Cowboy suggests shoving into an un-raised pot with any two live cards. Did you not get this opportunity before getting down to under 5BB? If you were not after a min cash why be in the position where a min cash/no cash is the likely scenario unless your shove holds?




            • #7
              A min raise in early position for me means AK-A8 or QQ-55
              He's the chip leader, so he can try and steal and if someone calls, he'll go all in

              So you have KQ and you don't want to min cash (doesn't everybody)
              You lose, you're OUT, but you have less than 5BB, so for you it's an automatic PUSH

              NOW, if this was me, knowing he's a good TAG player, like JW said, I'd wait for an Ax, I probably have another 14 hands, before pushing with anything close to descent, but that also gives 14 hands for others to get knocked out.

              I don't see why that people think that just because you make past the bubble, you can't finish first. OK it's harder (not really), but finishing 3rd or 4th out of 7, will give you cash and a few more chances to go for 1st.

              All that comes to he who waits
              Patience is a virtue


              • #8

                like everybody else would do i will fold

                KQ is only good if your the first to shove and hope everybody fold when someone raises your already behind by any pair or any A.

                it's better to shove with any 2 when it's open to you rather than call light, let them call you light rather than make yourself to call light


                • #9
                  A big thank you to all who took the time to post here! Great discussion.

                  I got lucky here and won this pot by 3-bet jamming all-in. I went on to win this tournament and I really believe this was a crucial hand in that game.

                  I'm working hard on my decision making and that was the reason I posted this hand.

                  By reading the comments above I can see that this decision might not have been the best one and that at best I was playing for a flip.

                  Thanks again for the feedback.


                  [replay hand_id=195911 type=ps title_id=2 showControls=1 themePath=table_PS_560x386.jpg lang=en gameEntity=0 hash=8EAAF8F388]


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by royalraise85 View Post

                    By reading the comments above I can see that this decision might not have been the best one and that at best I was playing for a flip.

                    Hey Raiser!

                    That's exactly the thought process you should have... get into a situation where you have a flip or better. The problem with KQ though, is that instead of being 48-52% or so (a flip), without the ace, you could be in a much worse situation, where you only have 35-40% equity, instead of 46+% equity. If you know the opp has a low pair, it's ok, but if the opp has Ax, it's much worse.

                    John (JWK24)

                    6 Time Bracelet Winner


                    • #11
                      Hey raiser very good hand to post for analysis as it has sparked some very good discussion. We really do not have enough information on the dynamics here to know what is the right thing to do.
                      You tell us that the villain is a TAG player at 21% vpip but we don't know how many times he has min raised like this. He is big stack and can be opening here wide simply to abuse the money bubble only to fold when someone pushes back. You say he is TAG but through how many hands and more importantly how many games have you played with him.
                      These numbers are important and not factored in enough. If you have only played this one game with him you really have such an insignificant sample to make it worthwhile. The other factor people miss here is the actual bb's you have because they fail to account for the ante's. I keep harping on this but I can't help it. Every time you don't factor the ante's you are calculating incorrectly.
                      Okay now I will give you the ICM numbers on this. Many people are guessing here and not knowing the math is crucial because like golf, poker is a game of inches or missed opportunities.
                      ICM is about knowing how much equity we have in the tourney prize pool. It also assumes you are better than the average player at the table.
                      Okay with that being said, we need to go one step further and that is to know what range this player or those after you will call off your raise with because he clearly is not all in. You are putting the decision back on him. The ICM calcs you ahev seen me use assumes the player has jammed and this is not the case.
                      This is why we need all the information we can get on your opponents ( not just the big stack but the BB as well )
                      Since we do not have this info I cannot run a calc for you with great accuracy however I will post the range that had he shoved what you and the BB can call off profitably in the long run.

                      UTG+1 53.5%, 22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q6o+ J2s+ J8o+ T6s+ T9o 96s+ 85s+ 75s+ 64s+ 53s+ 43s
                      SB 12.5%, 66+ A7s+ A9o+ KTs+ KQo
                      BB 4.2%, 99+ AQs+ AKo

                      So keep in mind he did not shove and this is important to note and why people are telling you they are folding. We have 2 people left that can play as all others have folded. The BB which you have told us nothing about and the min raiser big stack!

                      In closing Poker is not an exact science and many times we have to use our spidey senses!

                      Giddy Up!



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