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10BB left use steal/resteal- sunday storm

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  • 10BB left use steal/resteal- sunday storm

    Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner
    my opp in co min raise hmmm stealing? i have K9 good enough resteal thank you teachers - i learned this move here

  • #2
    Hello Marvin!

    Seems this one slipped through the cracks a bit, so I think i'll give it a go...

    My opinion is that in this spot, whether or not the CO is trying a blind steal from LP is really a matter of reads. The more likely he is to try a steal, the more likely that is what this is.

    If you cannot really say which way you feel about his chances to steal, then you can probably fold even on your slightly under 10BB stack. I say this because in the absence of info that will lean you toward one way or the other about this being a steal, you are likely to have a decent chance to steal the blinds yourself soon.

    If you simply think this guy might be situationally "aware" enough to try a steal attempt here, and as such you want to look at it as a chance to re-steal, your thoughts need revolve around some other things in my opinion...

    1) How much fold equity do you likely have in case he is weak.

    If your FE is too low, he will have to sheriff you lightly. While this might be good for you if he is trying on hands like T8o that you are AHEAD of, it is not good for you if he is on something like A4o that you would normally get to fold if you jam. So let's look...

    Before you shove, his min raise puts the pot at 13.2k
    To call your shove he would be getting a price of about 19.9k to win about 38.6k; just under 2 to 1.

    Normally, 2 to 1 is a "magic" number to call on, as that is the price needed for 2 live unders like T8 vs your K9 to break even. But this is a tournament structure, and he also must consider the value of not LOSING his chips too. you can take roughly 1/3rd his stack, so he probably cannot take this price very lightly, and hope he just has break even ev.

    That means you do probably have reasonable FE against most players with a sembelance of stack awareness.

    2) How much equity are you likely to have with K9 vs a CALL RANGE.

    Typically, a person willing to min raise in LP vs short stacks in the blind is counting on the fact the blind hands tend to be random holdings. As such, he is hoping that the blinds simply do not have enough of a hand to stand on if he has done this as a steal. In that case, a jam should be enough to get you the re-steal you are hoping based on the thoughts we looked at in point #1.

    Sometimes though, a person in this spot will be on a medium strength hand, and he is HOPING the short stack blinds will make a serious mistake by just CALLING. Hands like AT/pp 44/55/66, QJ and the like are all hands that this opp may be able to take down a pot on continuation if a blind calls then checks a flop.

    Versus these sorts of medium strength hands, K9 is going to tend to have decent equity. Note: by decent equity, I am NOT saying you are likely ahead of him if he calls. But your stack is short enough, and the pot has already grown large enough, that I would feel a shove here with K9 will get you the fold you want often enough, and if it doesn't, you'd have around 40% or so equity to make a nice chip up often enough, to go ahead and go for it here.

    So I would say this is a good spot to try a re-steal.

    Please understand though, trying a re-steal here is a calculated risk; there is a chance he raised like this on a big hand BECAUSE he is hoping one of the blinds jams. You really want more info to tip your decision either toward the re-steal or away from it if you can get it, but lacking that a try is ok too. If you are un-comfortable with the risk inherent in trying without good info, then a fold in hopes of finding a first in vig spot in LP after the blinds pass you can be ok too.

    Hope it helps.

    -JDean
    Last edited by JDean; Mon Jan 09, 2012, 06:02 AM.
    Double Bracelet Winner

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