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Overplaying the AK?

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  • Overplaying the AK?

    Hand #15, $1.50 27man SnG It's limped to me in MP so I raise to 4BB (3x standard plus 1 for the limper - I learned something from my HHs posted yesterday and the limper calls. Flop misses me, but with this texture, odds are they missed him as well. There is a flush draw out there which I'm not overly fond of. I've seen the guy show down two hands before: he limped a suited Q6 from UTG, and checked a 77 in the BB. Not enouigh for a read, although the Q6 limp is pretty loose imho. Odds are he has a suited hand. So I bet out, 185 into 285, giving him about 40% pot odds if he's on the flush draw. Looking back, that should have been more. But looking back, I'm also not sure he figures pot odds into his decisions. I expect a fold or call, instead he raises 3.5 times my bet. So now he's either semi-bluffing his flush draw, or he's made a pair. I'm not putting him on any PP for a flopped set at this point. In hindsight, why not, since he didn't raise his 77 when he was in the BB either. Maybe some kind of suited Jack, whether that be hearts or not. Possible. In that case, I have 6 outs if it's not hearts and 4 if it is. plus if it is, I have a redraw to the better flush. His bet also leaves him 348, 11BB, so you can pretty much be sure that's going in on the turn. Looking back, I'm sure I can't fold the turn, even if the turn is going to be a blank, so I'm not calling 491, I'm actually committing myself to calling 839. (thinking back: that increases my odds to make the call correct, due to the implied odds of getting the 348 in as well whatever the turn brings?) I decide the play speculative and make the call. Very thin as it is. After that the hand's basically over. I turn the card I wanted, but the 348 were going in anyway, and I river a set to for the heck of it. The decisive moment is his flop raise. What's the judgment on the call there? Was it good, or should I have just gone for the last 348 there, or should I have thrown it away? --------------------------------------------- keeping up with my poker semi-career:
    The Road to Fame and Fortune - Keeping track of my poker semi-career
    Keep up to date: @Ov3rsight

  • #2
    1) Flop texture is not dry (there are high cards, straight draws, and a flush draw), so it's not necessarily a good c-bet spot. I'd tend to check back vs. a loose/passive type and fold the turn unimproved.

    2) You were checkraised (essentially all-in), and you were not getting express odds to hit your overcards. Even if you were, your outs may not have been live. Calling here is good if you actually have a hand, but you should fold without one.

    3) There really aren't implied odds here, since the flop checkraise essentally puts the other player all-in. Since you can expect the rest of his money to go in on the turn, you need to count it as having gone in on the flop, which worsens your pot odds in a virtual sense; it does not make your odds better.

    In summary, yes, you overplayed AK. Your preflop raise was profitable; you didn't need to win the hand in order for your play to theoretically win money. Even plays that end in you folding can be +EV, so you don't need to force anything by becoming a calling station.


    • #3
      Figured as much, ty
      The Road to Fame and Fortune - Keeping track of my poker semi-career
      Keep up to date: @Ov3rsight


      • #4
        Hi Ov3rsight! Good to see your bet preflop It's the standard raise and exactly what I would do in this situation. Flop: three undercards with two hearts. The opp checks and in this situation, I would check behind and see the turn for free. AK has potential, but on this board it's only ace high. If I had a pair of J or a set, then I would make a bet to discourage a heart draw, as I would have a made hand and the bet would be for value too. Also, I would check here, because if the opp raises... as they did in the hand, I would have to muck here, as there are only 6 outs to hit a pair and even then, I wouldn't know if I had the best hand. With the read info that the opp would play any suited cards, the opp could easily have Ax or Kx suited and hit two pair if an A or K fell on the turn or river. When the opp 3-bets, to call is an extra 491 chips into a pot that will be 1637 (30%). If the opp is ahead, and they could easily have a pair, then AK may have 6 outs. 6 outs on the flop *4% equity per out is 24%. Since the hand equity is lower, I would fold to the raise. The turn hits an ace and the opp shoves. I may be behind two pair or a set, but with top pair/top kicker, I'm calling this bet almost every time. Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.umbup: John (JWK24)

        6 Time Bracelet Winner



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