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early JT steal attempt gone bad!!

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  • early JT steal attempt gone bad!!

    ok it's early in the premierleauge and this play will cost but ok. on the butten i am trying to steal and i get blind action with a small reraise and a call. so i decide to call. get a OSTD on the flop and an instant bet. i am calculating if i call the initial raiser will also call. and with 32% chance of hitting, lets make it 6 outs for any counterfeited outs i stil have 25% chance. then it happens a raise and a rearaise giving me roughly 3:1 for a 25%-32% chance of hitting. now i put this hand in the stove and if these dudes are total nits i am an underdog 29% anganst roughly 35%, do i set them on a wider range lik any broadway, any pair any suited i am a slight favor for the win 36% against 31% so don't count that i shortened myself 20 points in the leaderboard! did i took the right approach or should i have folded

  • #2
    I think when it comes back to me on the flop and I'm facing a check-raise reraise, I'm mucking it. One of them has to have me in serious trouble there and early in a tournament, I'm not going allin against 2 other people on the 1/3 chance of hitting a draw, especially when one of my 8 outs could be dirty, so I'm actually drawing to less than 1/3, more like 2/7.

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    • #3
      Pre-flop: The reason why you raise with JTo is to steal. The moment SB 3bet, it failed and you should gave up. It suck facing a min raise and a caller which gave you what it look like a good price to call...

      Flop: "i am calculating if i call the initial raiser will also call" is too optimistic. how about "if i call and the initial raiser raise"? After the 3bet all-in you could lay your hand down. your still have 1670 chip left on 20-40 level
      Last edited by Keldraco; Sun Jan 08, 2012, 12:33 PM.

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      • #4
        ** Moved to Hand Analysis sub-forum to insure analysis **

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Keldraco View Post
          Pre-flop: The reason why you raise with JTo is to steal. The moment SB 3bet, it failed and you should gave up. It suck facing a min raise and a caller which gave you what it look like a good price to call...

          Flop: "i am calculating if i call the initial raiser will also call" is too optimistic. how about "if i call and the initial raiser raise"? After the 3bet all-in you could lay your hand down. your still have 1670 chip left on 20-40 level
          agree

          fold PRE save yourself from trouble

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          • #6
            Hi 77wopke77! This is from a league game, so the strategy in these is different than a cash tourney. The goal is to survive as long as possible, taking a few risks as possible, and only going all-in if you are sure that you have the best hand. Early in these tourneys, stealing is something that I would not even consider. I can get into way too much trouble and get KO'd from the tourney early if things go wrong and due to this, it's not worth the risk. Due to this, I'm mucking J10 off in this situation. If I did open, I'm folding to any raise. If I was in the hand seeing the flop, to call here would be 30% of the flop. An OESD has 8 outs (32% equity) if all of them are true outs. This makes it a marginal call, but in a league tourney, I don't want to make any marginal plays so I'm mucking. Even if I called the 450, after a raise and a shove, it's an easy fold for me because I would not want my tourney life on the line being an underdog in a hand. The risk of getting KO'd in the tourney and the league points that are missed out on due to it are nowhere near the reward of the chips that would be gained from playing the hand. I would never discount league points that are lost due to a play. The entire point of the league games is to accumulate points, so that has to be the my first priority in every league tourney. Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.umbup: John (JWK24)
            Super-Moderator



            6 Time Bracelet Winner


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