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is it ok to take this line-big11

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  • is it ok to take this line-big11

    my read on opp CO- is raising light he loves to raise in position so jamming here I think I'm ahead is this fine considering it's too early in the tournament to be risking my tournament life or worst move?

  • #2
    With a raise AND two callers behind on this level, i'd probably never jam AQo
    its just too likely that at least one of the three is calling. and probably not with a worse hand than AQ.
    my guess is that you're racing a mid pair (at least) for your touney life. and this early that's just too big a risk. Even if he IS light, you think all three are?
    May the tinfoil protect you. MT

    Comment


    • #3
      I have the opposite impression. This is a typical squeeze spot. The reason jamming is good is because callers will typically be doing so on wide ranges; if they had a hand that could legitimately call a jam, they'd have jammed themselves. With the callers, the pot is now about a third of your stack, and you do have fold equity with your AQ, which adds to the value of shoving. Your read, combined with the general read we have on players who call behind, indicates that everyone might be weak here. Even if you're called by a better hand like JJ, the overlay more than makes up for that.

      I like the shove.

      Comment


      • #4
        good = 1

        bad = 1

        wow this is exciting

        let's see what our Great Teachers will have to say

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by PanickyPoker View Post
          I have the opposite impression. This is a typical squeeze spot. The reason jamming is good is because callers will typically be doing so on wide ranges; if they had a hand that could legitimately call a jam, they'd have jammed themselves. With the callers, the pot is now about a third of your stack, and you do have fold equity with your AQ, which adds to the value of shoving. Your read, combined with the general read we have on players who call behind, indicates that everyone might be weak here. Even if you're called by a better hand like JJ, the overlay more than makes up for that.

          I like the shove.
          If this was an ITM situation, I would agree 100% but at this level....not so much. Gotta get there first. If you dont mind flippin this early, more power to ya. Guess i'm just not that brave...
          May the tinfoil protect you. MT

          Comment


          • #6
            you were robbed today Marvin...
            Last edited by roomik17; Wed Jan 04, 2012, 11:11 PM. Reason: this has nothing to do with that hand

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by roomik17 View Post
              you were robbed today Marvin...
              i know what your saying i don't think about that maybe they saw something that they can't see it to me im still on and will still keep tryingumbup:

              Comment


              • #8
                AQ fold - shove - call?

                Originally posted by marvinsytan View Post
                my read on opp CO- is raising light he loves to raise in position

                so jamming here I think I'm ahead

                is this fine considering it's too early in the tournament to be risking my tournament life

                or worst move?
                This looks like level 6 with slow structured blinds (and antes), 10 minutes levels with 3000 starting chips, and assuming we’re not even close to the bubble.

                Currently you have 28BB, facing an opportunistic CO, followed by two callers, with no real reads on the two callers. The dead money in the pot is 40% of your stack! You are down but not out of the tourney because of its slow structure. At a high stake table, I would be concerned that the BTN may have set you (or the SB) up into making a squeeze-play, by slow playing a premium pair; with your holdings (AQ) it would most likely be KK. I wouldn’t be concerned about a slow played set-up at a low stake table (unless I had a read). Other considerations may come into play, such as table dynamics; are you better than the players at this table; is there easy bait at this table; can you chip-up against tight players on your left.

                I’m going to assume this is a lower stake game, and that the BTN wouldn’t slow play JJ+/AK, if he held them.

                Fold option: You can leave this hand and still have lots of tourney to play. Pro: If the table dynamics are right, you still have time to play poker and chip-up. Con: You have an awkward stack to try to chip-up with.

                Call option: You could call, and be stack committed if you hit the flop. This would mean investing just over 7% of your stack, getting 5.5:1, and setting up a SPR of 2. Pro: You close the betting; you have good relative position.

                Raise option: If you intend on raising, you have to consider the pot size and the comparative stack sizes. In this case, the ONLY type of raise would be a SHOVE. With the dead money in the pot you only need to have 40% equity (vs. one villain), to make this a +EV play. Pro: With your read, I feel the majority of the time it is going to be a coin flip at worse; you have the added BONUS of fold equity; if called, and you win, you more than double up; if folded around you increase your stack 40%. Con: You may get called because they will be getting good odds as well, and variance may end your tourney early.

                There are many times that a +EV play isn’t a good move in tournament style games. The chips you lose are more valuable than the chips you gain. There are so many variables that come into play making a decision like this.

                All in all, without dynamic reads at my table; being a little short; far away from the money; the chance to more than a double up; fold equity; and the overall risk/reward factor – I’m SHOVING!

                P.S. How did you get the replayer to stop? I’ve been trying to get the replayer to stop at certain streets (where decisions must be analyzed), so as not to bias any hand analysis.
                "May the cards be with you!"

                Comment


                • #9
                  Just remove the action from the text file King!

                  Marvin, do yourself a huge favour and look at the criteria for winning MOTW and now MOTM. What did you do wrong? Despite the amount of postings you have on the forum, what was the simple thing you did not do until the result went against you???!!!!

                  Sometimes, poker like life, is seeing the wood for the trees!

                  Cheers,

                  TC

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by topthecat View Post
                    Just remove the action from the text file King!

                    Marvin, do yourself a huge favour and look at the criteria for winning MOTW and now MOTM. What did you do wrong? Despite the amount of postings you have on the forum, what was the simple thing you did not do until the result went against you???!!!!

                    Sometimes, poker like life, is seeing the wood for the trees!

                    Cheers,

                    TC
                    thank you for the tip

                    i will definitely look into it again

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      King

                      about hiding the results

                      you just have to delete the part that you don't want to see in the details

                      thank you for your analysis

                      lots of information learned

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by king_spadez1 View Post
                        This looks like level 6 with slow structured blinds (and antes), 10 minutes levels with 3000 starting chips, and assuming we’re not even close to the bubble.

                        Currently you have 28BB, facing an opportunistic CO, followed by two callers, with no real reads on the two callers. The dead money in the pot is 40% of your stack! You are down but not out of the tourney because of its slow structure. At a high stake table, I would be concerned that the BTN may have set you (or the SB) up into making a squeeze-play, by slow playing a premium pair; with your holdings (AQ) it would most likely be KK. I wouldn’t be concerned about a slow played set-up at a low stake table (unless I had a read). Other considerations may come into play, such as table dynamics; are you better than the players at this table; is there easy bait at this table; can you chip-up against tight players on your left.

                        I’m going to assume this is a lower stake game, and that the BTN wouldn’t slow play JJ+/AK, if he held them.

                        Fold option: You can leave this hand and still have lots of tourney to play. Pro: If the table dynamics are right, you still have time to play poker and chip-up. Con: You have an awkward stack to try to chip-up with.

                        Call option: You could call, and be stack committed if you hit the flop. This would mean investing just over 7% of your stack, getting 5.5:1, and setting up a SPR of 2. Pro: You close the betting; you have good relative position.

                        Raise option: If you intend on raising, you have to consider the pot size and the comparative stack sizes. In this case, the ONLY type of raise would be a SHOVE. With the dead money in the pot you only need to have 40% equity (vs. one villain), to make this a +EV play. Pro: With your read, I feel the majority of the time it is going to be a coin flip at worse; you have the added BONUS of fold equity; if called, and you win, you more than double up; if folded around you increase your stack 40%. Con: You may get called because they will be getting good odds as well, and variance may end your tourney early.

                        There are many times that a +EV play isn’t a good move in tournament style games. The chips you lose are more valuable than the chips you gain. There are so many variables that come into play making a decision like this.

                        All in all, without dynamic reads at my table; being a little short; far away from the money; the chance to more than a double up; fold equity; and the overall risk/reward factor – I’m SHOVING!

                        P.S. How did you get the replayer to stop? I’ve been trying to get the replayer to stop at certain streets (where decisions must be analyzed), so as not to bias any hand analysis.
                        This is a super analysis and nothing for me to add. Marvin your postings are showing a pattern here that is very exploitable. I don't need to see the result here to know this is an auto fold at most points in the tourney. There are too few spots where you are ahead! You are better served to fold and find spots in position.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by 19honu62 View Post
                          This is a super analysis and nothing for me to add. Marvin your postings are showing a pattern here that is very exploitable. I don't need to see the result here to know this is an auto fold at most points in the tourney. There are too few spots where you are ahead! You are better served to fold and find spots in position.

                          I agree with chris, and I agree with kings analysus to the point of those two lil words... "I'M SHOVING" still think you have a plenty good playable stack to get your chips in, in a better situation later.
                          May the tinfoil protect you. MT

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by 19honu62 View Post
                            This is a super analysis and nothing for me to add. Marvin your postings are showing a pattern here that is very exploitable. I don't need to see the result here to know this is an auto fold at most points in the tourney. There are too few spots where you are ahead! You are better served to fold and find spots in position.

                            Would you elaborate on these two points? I'm not following the first one, and spadez actually advocated for a shove.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by 19honu62 View Post
                              This is a super analysis and nothing for me to add. Marvin your postings are showing a pattern here that is very exploitable. I don't need to see the result here to know this is an auto fold at most points in the tourney. There are too few spots where you are ahead! You are better served to fold and find spots in position.

                              what is my pattern?

                              what do i need to do?

                              Comment

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