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Back to basics, AKs 3 way, flop set, our play?

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  • Back to basics, AKs 3 way, flop set, our play?

    Premier Skill League Qualifier $1,10 As played, turn easy fold? There are flush and str draws, so whats our play, bet smt like 110% on the flop? Is there a way to hide players names and results?

  • #2
    duplicate post. sorry...self edit
    Last edited by JDean; Wed Jan 04, 2012, 02:08 PM.
    Double Bracelet Winner

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    • #3
      Thanks for posting your hand in the HA forum.

      Pre flop: Calling with AKs here is fine in my opinion. Raising a standard amount would probably be quite committing for you, so you really would have to move all in if you choose to raise at all. That might be a bit too risky with 2 EP players in the pot with you. If you miss it is quite easy to fold just over 10% of your stack if one of the EP players C-Bets.

      Flop: You hit this flop HARD, flopping trips. To answer your question about bet sizing, I'd say a bet of between 1/2 and 2/3rds pot is better, and sizing it towards the top end is better for you if you want to prevent "cascading" of callers. This amount denies odds but invites calls from lesser hands. All a 110% pot size bet would tend to do is fold out worse hands, and get you calls from better hands, like an AKs that is free rolling vs you, or a made full house. That means your flop bet is the exact kind of bet I'd make here, although I might make it slightly larger. Any deviation from a very "standard" sizing choice should really be predicated on information, like an opponent is a very loose caller who will pay off more with a worse hand than a 1/2 to 2/3rds pot bet.

      Turn: While a shove by the UTG +1 player may have you beat, you have put just under 33% of your stack into the point and have run right up against a committment point. in my opinion I do not like putting that much in and folding if there is any chance I may hold the best hand. Your chances of holding the best hand now are quite slim, but so are your chances of making it to the money off a 1k stack. I think you COULD fold here...barely...but you probably have at least 4 live outs to your A if you are beat (3 A's plus 1 K). At lot of your chances of finding a fold are going to be wrapped up in your personal assessment of your ability to play a short stack; if you feel that you can recover on about 16BB then you can fold. If you do not think you can recover well off that much of a loss, then you probably should call and pray the opponent has just made the straight, and you have 3 A's, 3 Q's, 3 J's and 1 K as live outs.

      As played, the villain with the JJ made a pretty serious mistake in over valuing his hand to draw at just 2 outs. The sizing of your flop bet when you hit trips with an A was plenty large enough to make him give up JJ with paired Ks and a Q on the board, yet he stayed. I'll be really honest with you, as I ran thru this hand street by street, I really expected you to be against QQ for a major cooler, or KQ (if the villain was playing very loosely to have called a UTG raise), not JJ. You had every reason to expect to have the best hand when you bet the flop, and you do not want to bet too large when you feel you hold the best hand, as that will usually cause you to value own yourself. So while the turn jam in front of you is highly troubling, and may well mean your trips are no good on this board texture, your very reasonable flop bet may well have stuck you too deeply into this pot to find an "easy" fold.

      You might find a fold...but only barely.

      Hope it helps.

      -JDean

      (P.S. As for editing your re-player to hide the names, that must be done manually. What you can do is change the names in the Hand History before you load it, by cutting out the actual name, and typing in a replacement name like "Player 1, Player 2" etc. You must be certain to replace each instance of a player's name though, not just the first time it shows.)
      Last edited by JDean; Wed Jan 04, 2012, 02:42 PM.
      Double Bracelet Winner

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      • #4
        Thank you for the detailed answer.
        Any deviation from a very "standard" sizing choice should really be predicated on information, like an opponent is a very loose caller who will pay off more with a worse hand than a 1/2 to 2/3rds pot bet.
        My thought here (afterwards) on 75%+ bet was to force them to fold, its a scary flop to try to extract value. I wasn't focus during the play.

        if you feel that you can recover on about 16BB then you can fold. If you do not think you can recover well off that much of a loss, then you probably should call and pray the opponent has just made the straight, and you have 3 A's, 3 Q's, 3 J's and 1 K as live outs.
        Yep both are live option for me.

        As played, the villain with the JJ made a pretty serious mistake in over valuing his hand to draw at just 2 outs. The sizing of your flop bet when you hit trips with an A was plenty large enough to make him give up JJ with paired Ks and a Q on the board, yet he stayed.
        Well we want them to make mistakes. And try to fix ours.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by akisno View Post
          Thank you for the detailed answer.

          My thought here (afterwards) on 75%+ bet was to force them to fold, its a scary flop to try to extract value. I wasn't focus during the play.
          The thing about a 75%+ bet sizing here is that it sticks you even HARDER than your actual bet size. It really should not be your desire to make a worse hand fold very often, just because they MIGHT draw out on you.

          Originally posted by akisno View Post
          Yep both are live option for me.
          Yes, they are.

          If you read a lot of things I write in the forum, I am a BIG believer in not putting a significant portion of your stack into the pot and then FOLDING. 33% usually, for me, marks that point of significance in MTT play.

          The problem I have in simply saying that in your case here is that while you are at the 33% threshold, I cannot conceive of ANY plausible hand you are likely to be ahead of when this villain jams the turn ahead of you.

          In cases like that, the best I can say to "defend" my personal stance that folding 1/3rd+ of your stack is still BAD is: a bluff is always a possibility.

          Had you bet larger than you did on the flop, and raised your investment up to around 45% or 50% of your stack, the mere CHANCE the opp may be trying some weird bluff out of fantasy land would be enough to make me say to myself: "well, you got yourself stuck here, time to get lucky!"

          But being right at (actually just under) 33% invested, AND holding a stack with 16BB if you fold (one which still retains some fold equity for re-steal tries) means you've presented a a situation that proves to be the exception to a personal "rule" of mine. I'll be honest, in this spot I probably fold...as much as hate it.

          The thing is, in your post you imply this is an EASY FOLD. My view is that it isn't "easy" at all...

          ...it is probably necessary, it is probably smart, it is probably a fold you'll be kicking yourself for if you fail to cash, but it is surely not "easy".

          Originally posted by akisno View Post
          Well we want them to make mistakes. And try to fix ours.
          Truer words were never spoken (or written).

          To my way of thinking, you might have bet more and driven JJ out of the pot. But if you think about it do you WANT to make someone drawing to 2 outs to fold?

          Had you bet larger than you did, you are probably not getting JJ to fold anyway; I mean if he will call as much as you bet on what might be zero outs (and was actually 2 outs), wouldn't he have probably called even more? Probably...but without more read info we do not know.

          The most important thing for YOU is that the bet you did select, one which was a more standard sizing and not designed to get worse hands to fold, actually left you a small window to fold. That tiny window is sometimes all you can hang your hat on if/when a completely YUCK card like this J falls.
          Double Bracelet Winner

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