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good bluff or not-big $11

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  • good bluff or not-big $11

    opp is loose caller and aggressive raiser PRE reason for wanting to win this pot he's not 3betting me and he's just calling. he might have weak hand AT the turn-to win this pot will surely make me in the money and to lose this pot I'm still fine is it ok to bluff just check it to him
    Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

  • #2
    The bet on the flop is fine: it is a standard C-Bet.

    The all in on the turn is iff-y, unless you have a lot of info on the villain.

    The truth of bluffing is that BIG bluffs, like an all in as a slight over pot bet in this spot, will tend to work more often than smaller bluffs. The problem with them is, of course, when they do not work they cripple you.

    Based on the info you've provided here, that the opp big stack is a loose caller and an aggro bettor pre, we really do not have enough info to say...

    - Can he muck a top pair hand?
    - Does he care enough about his stack to fold a flush draw for 30% of his chips?
    - Will he tend to call on LESS than top pair?
    - How often have you been all in, and what is your overall image?

    etc...

    The bottom line is Marvin, if you cannot answer a lot of these sorts of questions, then you are probably not bluffing in a good spot; you are pushing and HOPING it works.

    I would try to restrict my moves without a made hand to stronger semi-bluffs (at most) if I lack a large amount of info on an opponent, but have at least some. By doing so you at least gives yourself a decent chance to suck out if you get called and are behind.

    In this spot, since you have no real draws, and since you do not show that you have a ton of info, I cannot say I really like this bluff shove.

    Hope it helps.

    -JDean
    Double Bracelet Winner

    Comment


    • #3
      the villain is checking to you
      he checks flop and then checks turn
      if he has totally missed he is hard pressed to call
      you are representng AQ or some such
      if you had AQ and villain is on draw the proper move is all in on turn to make him pay for draw
      I think villain will fold
      I think it is correct play

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by JDean View Post
        The bet on the flop is fine: it is a standard C-Bet.

        The all in on the turn is iff-y, unless you have a lot of info on the villain.

        The truth of bluffing is that BIG bluffs, like an all in as a slight over pot bet in this spot, will tend to work more often than smaller bluffs. The problem with them is, of course, when they do not work they cripple you.

        Based on the info you've provided here, that the opp big stack is a loose caller and an aggro bettor pre, we really do not have enough info to say...

        - Can he muck a top pair hand?
        - Does he care enough about his stack to fold a flush draw for 30% of his chips?
        - Will he tend to call on LESS than top pair?
        - How often have you been all in, and what is your overall image?

        etc...

        The bottom line is Marvin, if you cannot answer a lot of these sorts of questions, then you are probably not bluffing in a good spot; you are pushing and HOPING it works.

        I would try to restrict my moves without a made hand to stronger semi-bluffs (at most) if I lack a large amount of info on an opponent, but have at least some. By doing so you at least gives yourself a decent chance to suck out if you get called and are behind.

        In this spot, since you have no real draws, and since you do not show that you have a ton of info, I cannot say I really like this bluff shove.

        Hope it helps.

        -JDean
        follow up question

        in this tournament its a constant table transfer

        i really dont have much info on every opp i play in this kind of tournament

        so do you think i need to check the turn and if he bet what will i do?

        do i need to muck and go to the next card

        i'm always in this kind of situation where ok I raise then cbet then fold if i have nothing. I wanted to change my game a little bit. The problem is i'm getting blinded out fast therefore no hance of playing postflop and can't improve my middle stage postflop game

        everytime in the middle stages of the tournament i tend to become nit player raise with good hands cbet fold to agression. i think im playing too scared in the middle stages then seeing my opp making a killing winning all the the blinds by just raising 2BB's everytime. if i get premium i get no action

        I want to be the guy who's raising 2BB's always and winning all the blinds then i when i get real hands they will 3bet shove and i get paid.

        this is what i want to do.

        is this strategy OK

        yes, i know being aggressive will just put me in many dangerous spot but will also make me go deeper. I want to do this strategy when I'm already in the money or if by risking my tournament life will make a good chance of making it in the money and I got at least 25-30BB to play postflop

        im good in early stages i think because in early stages i play with the same opp for longer time and im getting good reads from them because i can see how they play.

        that's why i want to improve my middle stage game. i think this is my leak that's why i cant get deeper in the big 11

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by marvinsytan View Post
          follow up question

          in this tournament its a constant table transfer
          By this you mean the structure is sort of like "Rush Poker", with a table change after each hand?

          If so, without reads I stick to straight value bets, and only try semi bluffs. This is due to the lack of info.

          You have to remember, not only do you lack info on opp's, they lack info on YOU. That means they may tend to call with lesser hands on draw heavy boards because they do not know that you play a solid open range.

          Originally posted by marvinsytan View Post
          i really dont have much info on every opp i play in this kind of tournament

          so do you think i need to check the turn and if he bet what will i do?

          do i need to muck and go to the next card
          Yes.

          Firing the single bullet on continuation is fine, as that is going to tend to win you the pot the times an opponent misses often enough to be worthwhile. A C-Bet also does not cost you a huge portion of you stack to make.

          If you check the turn, you can re-evaluate on the river...

          - If you still are on no pair, you can probably muck to anything but a TINY bet.

          - If you make a top pair hand, but there are 3 diamonds, again you can consider setting a "call budget" for yourself, and not exceeding that with a 1 pair hand which might be beaten.

          The thing about your jam here is that you have very little chance to win if you get called.
          Plus, you are jamming into the stack that can best AFFORD to call you.

          Not a good thing to do when you might be drawing to less than 5 outs with 1 to come...



          Originally posted by marvinsytan View Post

          i'm always in this kind of situation where ok I raise then cbet then fold if i have nothing. I wanted to change my game a little bit. The problem is i'm getting blinded out fast therefore no hance of playing postflop and can't improve my middle stage postflop game
          You have to recognize the PURPOSE of bluffing...

          Bluffing is not really about making a profit; your profit comes from your value hands that get paid off. Bluffing is more about creating "balance" in your range of actions, and thereby creating a lack of surety in your opponents as to what you are holding.

          As a goal, if you are "breaking even" on your bluffs, you are doing well. You have probably bluffed often enough to have taken down a few pots you had no reason to win, and you've also probably been CAUGHT a couple times; it is getting caught that sets up the chance that opponents will pay off your sets and top 2 pair hands later on when they think you only have 1 pair...see?

          A 25BB start stack is quite large to be punting if this opp happens to be the type who checks top pair/top kicker hands...I'd much rather have 20BB or so to keep going on than to try a rash bluff without info.

          Originally posted by marvinsytan View Post

          everytime in the middle stages of the tournament i tend to become nit player raise with good hands cbet fold to agression. i think im playing too scared in the middle stages then seeing my opp making a killing winning all the the blinds by just raising 2BB's everytime. if i get premium i get no action

          I want to be the guy who's raising 2BB's always and winning all the blinds then i when i get real hands they will 3bet shove and i get paid.

          this is what i want to do.

          is this strategy OK

          yes, i know being aggressive will just put me in many dangerous spot but will also make me go deeper. I want to do this strategy when I'm already in the money or if by risking my tournament life will make a good chance of making it in the money and I got at least 25-30BB to play postflop

          im good in early stages i think because in early stages i play with the same opp for longer time and im getting good reads from them because i can see how they play.

          that's why i want to improve my middle stage game. i think this is my leak that's why i cant get deeper in the big 11
          What is your C Bet frequency?

          If you are too close to 100% you WILL tend to get attacked by floats and such. There is no rule that says you HAVE to C-Bet every time you open raise.

          Realistically, the tighter your range, the more you should be C-Betting, but even someone playing around a 10% range probably shouldn't really be above 80% C-Bet.

          If you are playing a LAG-gy range, say 25% to 30%, your C-Bet frequency probably shouldn't be anything above 66% or so. The greater width of that range means you will not get the sort of respect for your C-Bets, and your hands will also tend to be WEAKER, thus more vulnerable to play back when you do C-BET.

          So it is a lot about Balance Marvin...

          In this spot you have 25BB in your stack, that is not short by any means.
          Feeling pressure to chip up by playing against a guy who can bust you when you already have a decent stack (not great, but ok), and letting that pressure lead you to a big bluff that MIGHT work but if it doesn't you are out, is not exercising good patience.

          If you held a flush draw with 1 board over, then I wouldn't say this was so terrible...a big bluff will tend to work reasonably often afterall. But without that sort of back up hope, this is highly risky and you can easily find better spots to chip up.
          Last edited by JDean; Sat Dec 31, 2011, 02:53 AM.
          Double Bracelet Winner

          Comment


          • #6
            im really learning a lot today

            lots of lessons learned from our Intelligent Teachers

            need to put it all in my poker mind and use it to my next game

            tnx

            Comment


            • #7
              In this spot you have 25BB in your stack, that is not short by any means.
              Feeling pressure to chip up by playing against a guy who can bust you when you already have a decent stack (not great, but ok), and letting that pressure lead you to a big bluff that MIGHT work but if it doesn't you are out, is not exercising good patience. -having a hard time quoting just this by JDean

              you got me exactly right

              this is what im thinking of, im pressured to chip up and don't want to let go of this hand.im so pressured to chip up that i want to put up a big bluff without even a back up. Just pure air

              need to balance my aggression more

              perfect analysis

              tnx

              Comment


              • #8
                If you bet closer to 3k on the flop you have a much more believable turn shove for a bit under the size of the pot. Just something to think about.

                Also, you don't have to C-bet every time. When you c-bet you should have a plan for if you get raised. If you really don't know what you will do if raised then consider just checking the flop for pot control. You might make a nice pair on the turn and your hand is not unlikely to be best. Remember 2/3 of the time you will miss the flop! That means the other guy is going to miss it most of the time too!
                4 Time Bracelet Winner


                Comment

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