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K9s situational gamble, or recklessness at tight table rewarded?

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  • K9s situational gamble, or recklessness at tight table rewarded?

    Hey guys, I'll admit I'm pretty new to really trying to analyze my play and think deeper during action, but I've played poker a couple of years now and I want to get better and improve. So here is the question - Was this the right play? This was a tight table early tournament, pretty much everyone played passive/tight including myself and the blinds were starting to get heavier for me. I wanted to play a bit more aggressively (a rare thing for me) to pick up some blinds. K9s came up so I just played a big blind raise from early position, 1 caller. Flop gives me a straight flush draw, I check, he bets low, I figure he probably has a hand but I guessed my outs would crush a possible pair, 2 pair. Since he is quite tight I thought about betting half his stack to bully him out. He goes all in, I call, leaving me with very little if i lose, but if I folded I would be short-stacked. In hindsight I should have analyzed the pot odds but I just punched the call button. Was pursuing this hand at a tight table a measured gamble? or just recklessness that got luck on the river?

  • #2
    Preflop is an easy fold, imo. Flop is quite interesting, though.


    Even at a tight table, you want to avoid playing hands from the first three or four positions. When you open, if anyone does call you, you'll usually be out of position, so you might as well play most of your hands when you'll be in position so you'll almost always have an edge. I'd prefer a fold here, although opening KJs would have a good case behind it if this was a tight table.

    Another reason I prefer a fold is because when you do get called, if it's by a king it will usually beat you. The cost of being outkicked is pretty high, because if the flop comes KT2r, you're not really going to fold that often. Also, you will sometimes be dominated by AJ, and on some occasions, even by Ax of hearts. Those two scenarios are long shots, but anything you can do to make your chances of being dominated lower is always good.


    When your checkraise is called, it will be by a hand that beats you almost every time (although rarely by much, I think), and while you probably have close to 16 outs (which is an arguement to get all-in on the flop, since 16 outs will win more than half the time), your opponent will often be blocking those outs or they'll be dirty outs that give the villain a winning hand even if you hit (like if he holds KJ, even if you hit your K, he wins). I'm not really sure what the best play is here, which shows one of the reasons why playing OOP is difficult. I'm hoping more people chime in soon.


    • #3
      Preflop is fine. It's been a tight table, and you've been playing tight and passive, plus you're in early position so your raise is likely to get respect. You also have a hand with decent playability if you get called. You are also deep enough that you can profitably raise/fold a wide range of hands here. Yeah, it would be better to have smaller cards (like 98s, which is less likely to be dominated by a tight calling range), but this isn't terrible. Note that when you get called you're likely to be in bad shape against the range that calls an EP raise, and you'll be out of position, which is why it's better to do this with smaller suited connectors and gappers.

      On the flop, with a gutshot+flush draw+overcard, in general I'm looking to get it in on this depth of money. There's no real reason not to continue your preflop aggression on a flop like this. Just bet out and get it in against a raise. You have massive equity here, as much as 15 outs against top pair. (4 for the gutty, 8 for the flush, 3 for the K, and some backdoors too). If AT is the bottom of his range then you're doing great. Often you could get it in against a lot of worse flush draws, but you have most of them pretty blocked with your hand. Q8s and 87s are about all you can hope for on that front.

      However. Note that he did call your EP raise with ATo...that's not that tight.
      4 Time Bracelet Winner


      • #4
        preflop: is a min-raise your std raise? If so, then it's fine... if not, then make a std raise, to try and conceal the strength of your hand.

        flop: you get a straight, flush and straight flush draw. You can either check or lead out here. Any hand that you'd be playing against is probably currently ahead of you with a J or 10, but you have a very strong draw (12 outs or 48% if another K wouldn't give you the best hand, or 15 outs or 60% equity if a K would give you the best hand).
        Since you checked and the opp bet.... if it was me, I'm just calling here, instead of raising. You have a strong draw, not a made hand and if the opp shoves over your raise (which they did), then you're going to be forced to call it knowing that you don't currently have the best hand.
        I'd have rather called their bet and re-evaluated on the turn.

        6 Time Bracelet Winner



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