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Did I make the right call, or just get Lucky?

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  • Did I make the right call, or just get Lucky?

  • #2
    seeing their 2 hands, I liked my holdings, although made me nervous seeing all the overcards.

    Even though I won, was it ok?


    • #3
      I think it's a shove or a fold here, and I'm inclined to fold to a bet and a raise. If the guy who min-3bet was spazzy at all, I'd happily jam it though. And if the blinds were about to go up, I might decide that I didn't have much choice besides jamming.


      • #4
        Originally posted by Stakehorse75 View Post
        Even though I won, was it ok?
        I think we need more info to answer this.


        • #5
          Originally posted by PanickyPoker View Post
          I think we need more info to answer this.
          When the original raise was made, it was min raise, so I kind of figured they were stealing the blinds. The re-raise, I was thinking he had to have something, but remembering the very minimal re-raise, figured he had checked off the raise to steal the blinds and got caught in after the original raise came early.

          Which comes around to why I was asking, even though I won, I made a double bet(I know I should have shoved, and think I didn't because I was still in a 4K mindset> 3 hands before this I was at 4K before my AA got cracked). Guess I have answered part of my own question didn't I??

          I should have either shoved it all, or folded originally?
          and kept a better eye on my stack of course...
          Last edited by Stakehorse75; Thu Dec 22, 2011, 03:52 AM. Reason: and kept....


          • #6
            Originally posted by Stakehorse75 View Post
            but remembering the very minimal re-raise, figured he had checked off the raise to steal the blinds and got caught in after the original raise came early.
            If I'm understanding you properly, I don't think this is possible in NLHE. There is no 'Raise Any' check box, only 'Call Any'. Usually, a minbet indicates great strength to me, but if this is a loose/aggressive villain whatsoever, then he could be doing this with much worse hands than yours.

            The only reason I say raise/fold is because if you bet half your stack and the flop come AQ7... what now?


            • #7
              You got lucky - take it. Lots of times you won't get lucky, so take it while you can.
              Bracelet Winner


              • #8
                JJ is a somewhat marginal hand to be 4betting half your stack on, but against some ranges it is perfectly fine. That means in large part your decision here, and the quality of it, is based upon the info you have upon which to work. Consider...

                Essentially speaking you are short enough (with about 12BB) to not mind standing on JJ if you must.

                Obviously, facing a raise and a 3bet is not ideal for your hand, as there could be at least 1 over pair there.

                A LOT of the validity of standing here will rest with the width of range for the open raiser, and how wide the 3bettor might be as a result of that open raise range.

                As long as there is a chance TT/99 is in the 3bettor's range, AND as long as the open raiser will likely have a range that will allow TT/99 to be an ok 3bet, combinatronically there are probably enough hands BOTH opponents could hold for you to risk going ahead and standing on JJ here.

                That answers the first part of your Questions...yeah, you can find a decent enough spot to get you chips in with JJ here often enough to NOT necessarily make it "luck" that you faced un-paired over card hands.

                The chip up chance was worth that risk.

                Good job.

                Hope it helps.

                Last edited by JDean; Thu Dec 22, 2011, 07:58 AM.
                Double Bracelet Winner


                • #9
                  Thanks for the info on my play Panicky, JDean, and joy. I think spending some time in the hand analysis' has got me to start looking at things a bit differently. umbup:


                  • #10
                    As for shove or fold instead of putting half your stack in on a 4bet, that might be moot in this hand really.

                    The key factors that would say a half stack bet is BAD would be if BOTH villains were prone to flat your 4bet. In that case, you might set yourself up to make a "mistake fold" on some board, or you might prevent getting max value if they see scare cards to their hands.

                    Obviously, your intent was to go for it after putting half your stack in though (since you saw 2 jams in front of you and STILL called), so at least the mistake fold wasn't likely for you...

                    For YOU Stakehorse, based on a few of the hands I've seen you put in the HA forum, this is not a bad idea to try at all...

                    A lot of those hands I've seen you making a committing raise, but not go all in. Since this seems to be a frequent feature of your play, and since opponents have probably SEEN you do that sort of thing, they may make a mistake against YOU, and your image, by thinking you WILL fold.

                    Now granted, i do not know for sure if you had shown patterns like that here, but if you had, you'd be deriving benefit from your situational equity in making your opponents think you will do something you have no intention of doing...see?

                    In point of fact, there is little reason NOT to try to keep this pot 3 way versus your all in, and if you used your image to make it more likely that would happen, you benefitted.


                    The reason I say it is to your benefit to keep both players in is simple...

                    You have 3 likely situations:

                    1) You are facing 1 over pair, and 1 hand with 2 overs to you (or 2 over pairs).
                    No matter if this is HU or 3way, your equity sucks here.

                    2) You are facing 1 UNDER PAIR and 2 un-paired overs.
                    If you fold out the under pair your equity is about 52/53%, to make a bit more than a double up, and about 43.5% to make a triple up+ if both villains stay in.

                    Either is +eV, but you NEED the extra chips to get back to a stack with some wiggle room, so I'd be inclined to try keeping it 3way in this case.

                    3) You are facing 2 un-paired big Aces, for a max of 3 overs with 1 shared over (what you actually had).

                    (JJ makes it impossible for you to face 4 overs, or an un-shared over card situation, so you MIGHT want to fold TT in this spot, but go on JJ.)

                    In this spot, you hve about 43% chance to triple up+, and you are again +eV.

                    Obviously, there are various scenarioes where someone has air, or near air (like Ax or JT), but with the action pattern the 3 scenarioes above are most likely.

                    With 12BB to start the hand, a triple up is what it takes to get you back to a working stack, but if you;d started with around 20BB, you might want to think about acting to thin the field a bit more (by moving all in).

                    So all in all, if your 4bet of half your stack was made in hopes of keeping BOTH players in to possibly get the good value from the full triple up, without greatly increase your risk in the hand, then a half pot 4bet is fine.

                    If you didn't think all that deeply, it might have been better to just jam as your 4bet, and hope that one of the villains does not try to squeeze the other out.

                    And it also possibly didn't matter one bit WHAT your 4bet, as long as once you had half your chips in, you were NOT folding.
                    Double Bracelet Winner



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