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My luck is no luck at all !!! lol

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  • My luck is no luck at all !!! lol

    Well, Here is the exit hand from my 3.30 this morning. I had just doubled up previous hand, am in the big blind with KK, had two guys shove pre-flop who both had a history of shoving with garbage and voila, i get knocked out by this fool hitting one of TWO outs. I had to fade two aces, but nope, Ace on the flop, what else. SHould I have folded under the assumption that one of them had AA? No. They had not played a premium pair in the hour I was there, so why assume that they had been dealt AA? KK is the bane of my poker life, it rarely does me any good, always gets beat by the phantom Ace !!!! I did have a brief reflection of the RealKidPoker commercial where he folds his KK, but I felt I had these two, and in reality, I did. TWO outs for them, and one comes on the flop, unreal. Bah !! The Poker Gods are just not with me in these challenges !!

  • #2
    The only hand in weeks nobody wants to analyze !! Its all good. If I had to make that call again, I would, I read my opponents correctly, knew that they had worse starting hands than I did, and I made the call. Like I said , my luck is in freerolls, in $$$ , I have no luck whatsoever. Peace Skinyumbup:


    • #3
      In this spot, when the bigger stack jams on the button, you are almost always going to be correct in calling. Obviously, even an uber nit, someone who will only do this with Aces, would be so hard to identify in the short span of a single MTT that you cannot live in fear of AA.

      That means your decision largely comes down to a matter of balancing what a double up means to your chances to run deep, versus what a loss means to your tourney equity. Consider...

      You are on deep money here with 67.66BB.
      This is the ONLY type of situation you can even begin to consider a fold in MTT poker.
      but even though one facet of a POSSIBLE fold decision is here, that does not mean you should immediately jump on that option; there are other things to think about.

      The range of your big stacked opponent says that he does not need AA to jam.
      Sometimes he WILL have AA though, and those times are just bad luck for you.
      If he does not have AA, you are at least a 70% favorite to win.

      The LARGER the "edge" is that you would be willing to pass up, the GREATER your "skill advantage" must be over the ENTIRE field in order for you to find better situations to pick up chips. A 70% edge is about as good as it gets normally, so if you are passing up a chance to double in this spot, where ARE you going to take your chances; on AA only?

      On the depth of money you are on, passing a RACE with you holding AK is probably marginally ok.
      Even passing up a potential race, and losing a chance to be an 80% favorite if you held JJ might be ok.
      In those sorts of spots, there are enough "if's" to make you leery of stacking off a 67+BB stack.
      KK though...nuh uh, no way.

      So once you recognize that your decision is sealed as soon as that guy jams and you see KK, what is the hu-hu?

      After that it is all down to luck. You can control your decisions, but you cannot control your luck.
      All that you will accomplish by trying to control luck is to create leaks in your game.
      Afterall, if you thought the big stack shover held a rag A, and you FOLDED KK here, that would be a leak...

      So in the bottom line, be-moaning bad luck is really point-less, and as your decision is SO CLEAR here given the read info you supply, that is about all there is to say about this got un-lucky. It happens.

      You are much better served spending your time looking at situations that are NOT so clear, and finding ways to improve your game in those more marginal situations. In this spot you got exactly what you WANTED here, a chance to make a big chip up as a big favorite.

      What else can you ask for in an MTT?
      Last edited by JDean; Sat Dec 17, 2011, 09:01 PM.
      Double Bracelet Winner


      • #4
        I make that call every single time. There is only 1 hand ahead of you, AA. When you end up in a 3-way pot, if an opp has an ace, the best thing you can hope for is for both of them to have an ace, as it cuts down on the number of outs that can beat you. With three in the pot, if neither opp has AA, but has a top 5% hand.... you still have over 50% equity and you only have about 33% of the chps in the pot, so it IS a +EV play. If the 3rd player doesn't call too, then you have 68% equity. Really unlucky, but you made the correct play umbup:

        6 Time Bracelet Winner


        • #5
          I'm with JWK here, I'm calling.
          I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

          13 Time Bracelet Winner


          • #6
            Great job in the plo today grade b! rocking our a 121$ off a ticket is cool!
            Double Bracelet Winner



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