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Folded QQ

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  • Folded QQ

    Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner
    .25c 45-mam UTG is very passive pre and post 33/0 in 51 hands. After watching him play i knew this raise was very strong. Is this a long term +ev play there or do i make a mistake?
    Last edited by Keldraco; Fri Dec 16, 2011, 07:14 AM.

  • #2
    I think that your sample size is way too small to say definitively that his raise is strong enough to fold QQ. Maybe if this was his first open in 500 hands, we'd have a serious case for folding, but you can't really fold the top 1.4th% of your range because it isn't strong enough. There's a decent chance that this guy also has some weird QJs sort of opens in his range here. After 50 or so hands, you just can't be certain that he's only playing QQ+ or something close to that.

    Also, with 20bb, you need to lower your standards and take a bit of risk. I think QQ is a good hand to risk your chips on, even if you have a bad feeling about it.

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    • #3
      yes i think i have been climbing the Open skill too much and turn very passive...@#$. it like all of my judgement went off

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      • #4
        There's a difference between being timid and being passive. I wouldn't call this play passive, exactly. It's the sort of thing people do when they're learning the game quickly and focus closely on certain things (VPIP/PFR) and miss the bigger picture because there's just so much stuff to look at when you're looking at the bigger picture. You interpreted a piece of information which told you to fold, but you perhaps didn't balance that with all the information which told you to go with the hand. I think you should have raised all-in, but there's a decent chance you were correct that the villain had KK or AA.

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        • #5
          This is possibly too tight a fold.

          Firstly, you give a passivity read on the villain. Quite like putting an opponent on a specific hand rather than a RANGE of hands, only viewing 1 facet of their play can lead to mistakes in judgement.

          In this spot, you must not only consider the passivity vs. Aggression of the player, but also their tightness vs looseness in order to truly asses their range.

          Do not get me wrong, I "get" why you'd be really concerned when a highly PASSIVE player raises UTG. That does tend to indicate a strong holding. In this spot though, you too hold a strong hand, so you really must look at their tightness versus looseness matrix too. Consider...

          Even if you think about this villain having a VERY TIGHT raise range from UTG of only 5% of hands, your QQ still has about 57.6% equity. The 50/50 point would be an uber tight 2.5% open range here, and in that spot your QQ still has about 50.6% equity. To put a 2.5% open range into perspective, that consists of JUST TT+ and AKs...not even AKo...

          If they have been limping 33% of hands, and have NEVER raised in 51 hands, I do agree you should probably put them near the top of their range, but I'd think a range around 5% to 7% is more likely...not the sub 2.5% range that it would take to put you in an under 50% equity spot.

          (Note: vs a 7% range, you have 61.8% equity with QQ)

          The adjustment I WOULD make versus this opponent would be to not 3bet as often as I would versus a wider likely range...

          I say this because:
          - the chances of an over card on the flop to your QQ is right around 41.5%.

          - the BULK of this opp's raise range will consist of hands with As and Ks in them, so ANY single over card versus him represents a significant threat.

          - the likely tightness of a raise range on this player info almost assures a 3bet would get CALLED here.

          - this opp's image is uniquely suited to take you off a big hand like QQ if he 4bet shoves...that is not great for you necessarily, when a 3bet adds not real value for you, and a shove might make your hand a somewhat marginal call.

          - Finally, an extremely tight player is not likely to allow you to build a LARGE pot against them when you are ahead, and will probably fold AK pretty cheaply; that means a larger C-Bet sizing created by a built up pot (if you 3bet) will not likely result in you winning a larger amount because they draw light versus you.

          So this is a unique situation where I would NOT like to 3Bet QQ pre flop all that often...

          ...but I think a fold is just TOO TIGHT.

          Hope it helps.

          -JDean
          Last edited by JDean; Fri Dec 16, 2011, 07:48 AM.
          Double Bracelet Winner

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          • #6
            yes thank you. i will take note of that in the furture

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