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3.5R 180 man sng

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  • 3.5R 180 man sng

    late in the game big stack min raise UTG which is the first time he's done that from 3 orbits he shoves from Hijack with KQo. that's his only play.First time he min raise. he never limps. and never calls so I assume his hand is 66 above or of course he can easily have 2 overcards. I don't want to call and fold because that's my leak when i called my suited connectors 4way last time Right Play or need to shove?--last 60 players left
    Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

  • #2
    Absolutely this is the right play...

    What you see there by the info you've added to this post is a betting "dis-connect".

    This occurs when a pattern of what you have come to expect form player suddenly changes. It is absolutely VITAL to notice these sorts of things, and configure YOUR decisions based upon that info you've seen.

    If you read Mike CAro's seminal book on poker tells, he posits a poker truism: "Weak means strong, strong means weak.

    Now obviously, if you are facing a very GOOD player, this will not always hold true. Even against bad players, those who really do not know a lot about standard bet sizing, this may not be true. The TRUTH of this statement for on line poker is that this is a "weak" bet and it COULD be strength...that is enough for you to change your decision.

    If you had seen this as his standard action, one he does most times, then you could justify a shove to stand on your short 10BB stack. But in the face of a CHANGE in his normal pattern, you really do not want to run into the change having been made BECAUSE he is on something like AA/KK, right?

    Consider...

    1) To CALL here (obviously not a good idea), you are putting in about 25% of your stack.
    2) To RAISE here, you;d be looking at going all in.
    3) The VALUE of 55 is such that you are rarely ever far a head of an opponent who might call your all in; you are usually a race, or dominated by a bigger pocket pair.

    So...

    When you add those 3 points to the fact that this villain has made a strange sized bet, one which COULD be strong because he has never bet like that before, you really cannot risk the fact that it is a strong bet with a hand like 55.

    You are through your blinds, and although you are a short stack, you can possibly find a better spot to get your chips in. Altogether, this adds up to your fold being a very smart one, because the risk of him being on a dominating hand is just not off-set enough by the fact he might be on a very weak one.

    Good fold.

    Hope it helps.

    -JDean
    Last edited by JDean; Mon Dec 12, 2011, 11:20 PM.
    Double Bracelet Winner

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    • #3
      The UTG opp did NOT min-raise. A min raise would be a raise to 2400, the opp raised to 2520.

      If this is the first time you've seen this type of play from the opp, it's probably a monster hand that they have... and if so, folding is definitely the correct play.

      If the opp consistantly raised and had shown down a few really bad hands, then I'd think about shoving over them, but with it being a non-std play from the opp, folding and finding a better spot is definitely the best option.
      Super-Moderator



      6 Time Bracelet Winner


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      • #4
        yes, im improving wow, i think this is the first time I made a good play im so happy this is what is all about after folding my 5's I got a perfect hand with Ladies and got a caller wipeee.....
        Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner
        Of course what can I do. Cruel River but still happy I played 3 games didn't cash but happy to improve my game overall conclusion: 3 games at least found my leak--stop calling in the big blinds, stop calling with suited connectors(that's dead money) when you don't have at least min. 40bb's or more. save your stacks so that you an win pot uncontested by just moving all in when its open to you in late position till tomorrow Thank you for your analysis I will definitely win one for you guys and that's a promise My Motto: ONE TIME BIG TIME ****just not now for my one time big time because I have something to do later that's why I'm playing a fast game. I don't want not to play because I want to focus on improving to help me prepare for the $215 Sunday Ten Million

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